Aspial

[port]

read that casinos n pawnshop r known as siamese twins. the latter is never far from the other.

aspial may benefit from spillover effects from our 2 IRs.

it also acquire a few pieces of land in early 09 before surge in land prices in latter half of 09.

It will recognise close to 180m of property sales over the next 2-3 yrs and another 300m+ of prop. sales in the future.

after proposed 1 for 5 bonus issue, issued shares will increase to 500m, current mkt cap, 147m, nav, 25cts.

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pawnbroking is capital intensive, requiring large amt of cash to loan out using valuables as collateral.

a bank gets its cash from deposits and then loan out, how about aspial? borrow from bank n then loan out thro its pawnbroking business? or finance its pawnbroking biz thro cash generated from prop. sales?

welcome yr views n insights

[Jon-san]

Interesting... Do they have outlets situated near the IRs?

[port]

http://www.maxi-cash.com.sg/about.html

[port]

bought aspial in dec09, it starts showing some signs of upward activity this yr.

some financial ratios:-

net current asset value(ncav), working capital per share in 2009 and 2010: 41 ct( issued share,350m) & 34 ct(issued share,420m) resp.

debt/equity: 211/98=2.15x(2010), 146/97=1.51x(2009)

note that it raise 14m thro 1 for 5 rights issue at 21cts few mths back.

some pts to consider:
1. if aspial debt/equity ratio is so high, why did it not hv a 1 for 1 or 1 for 2 rights in the first place?
2. why r banks willing to extend loans for its prop. development after assessing its high debt ratios?
3.its rnav very likely much higher as it bought 93m of land in 2009 equiv to 63% of mkt cap of 147m

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assume prop sales of 480m to be recognise progessively over the next 4 yrs and a 20% net margin, ie 24m net profit/pa over the next 4 yrs.

PE based on enlarged 500m issued shares adjusted for bonus issue & curr price of 35ct: 7.3x

assume PE expand to 10x in future, target px: 48 cts

[port]

xb next week

[port]

was looking at sc global with a P/B of 0.9, gearing of 2.3x, net gearing 1.8x n ROE of 13%. sc has the highest gearing n ROE among the covered developers.

aspial P/B of 1.4, gearing of 2.15x n potential future ROE of 21%(too optimistic???).

former target high end, luxury mkt while latter target low-mid end mkt.

manageable debt can be a powerful leverage to increase ROE

[port]

WB guided paying a $ for each $ of sale for acquisition.

aspial mkt cap, 163m. average sales p.a. over last 6 years- 221m

mkt is willing to pay 74ct for each $ of sale. if mkt follows WB's guidance of 1 for 1, target price will be abt 44ct

suppose my earlier estimation of 24m net profit pa over next 4 yrs is 50% off the mark, ie 12m instead, ROE will drop to 10% which is in line with some of major prop developers. projected eps, 2.4ct, curr pe based on 32.5ct, 13.5x

should curr pe compressed to 10x, target price will be 24ct assuming its jewellery retail n pawnbroking just breakeven w/o contribution to net profit.

singpost sold off its pawnbroking biz recently.

[Vseeker]

Proxy to IR ??

i'm of the view that Aspial is a poor cousin to Fragrance
Yes, Fragrance should be better proxy.

1) On the properties business, Fragrance's execution seem much better than Aspial, i opine.

2) Fragrance own most, if not all of its hotels,
with Aspial, rentals is major expense items, given its numerous jewellery outlets and also "pawnshop outlets" ?.
hotels should be better proxy than Jewellery outlets to booming tourism.

3) Aspial doing alot of its property projects thru non-100% subsidiaries,
eg. thru WCL and WCC, World Class Developments (Bedok)
==> in each of above case; minorities took out a 10%, 20% and 20% haircuts respectively.

Aspial's projects are pretty small, why give away 10-20% ??

If it's property that you are interested, there are much better players out there,
cheers.

NB: i not vested in any of them

[port]

Proxy to IR ??

i'm of the view that Aspial is a poor cousin to Fragrance
Yes, Fragrance should be better proxy.

1) On the properties business, Fragrance's execution seem much better than Aspial, i opine.

2) Fragrance own most, if not all of its hotels,
with Aspial, rentals is major expense items, given its numerous jewellery outlets and also "pawnshop outlets" ?.
hotels should be better proxy than Jewellery outlets to booming tourism.

3) Aspial doing alot of its property projects thru non-100% subsidiaries,
eg. thru WCL and WCC, World Class Developments (Bedok)
==> in each of above case; minorities took out a 10%, 20% and 20% haircuts respectively.

Aspial's projects are pretty small, why give away 10-20% ??

If it's property that you are interested, there are much better players out there,
cheers.

NB: i not vested in any of them

vseeker, read some of yr posts on bukit semb, hiap hoe , lion tech chang etc.

do u think aspial is likely to be privatised in future as its ceo n spouse buying back shares recently? r u able to work out an estimate of its RNAV? Thanks in advance.

[port]

D.o.g. posted earlier that he will rather pay 2x book for one with 20% roe than 1x book for one with 10% roe. hmm..... paying below book for a potential 10-20% roe seems to provide a certain margin of safety.1/2ct dividend declared on enlarged share issue of 500m