Aspial

[port]

bought aspial in dec09, it starts showing some signs of upward activity this yr.

some financial ratios:-

net current asset value(ncav) & working capital per share in FY09( issued share,350m)
: 18ct & 40ct resp.

NCAV & working cap. in FY10(issued share,350m): 18 ct & 40 ct resp.

debt/equity: 211/98=2.15x(2010), 146/97=1.51x(2009)

note that it raise 14m thro 1 for 5 rights issue at 21cts few mths back.

some pts to consider:
1. if aspial debt/equity ratio is so high, why did it not hv a 1 for 1 or 1 for 2 rights in the first place?
2. why r banks willing to extend loans for its prop. development after assessing its high debt ratios?
3.its rnav very likely much higher as it bought 93m of land in 2009 equiv to 63% of mkt cap of 147m

---

assume prop sales of 480m to be recognise progessively over the next 4 yrs and a 20% net margin, ie 24m net profit/pa over the next 4 yrs.

PE based on enlarged 500m issued shares adjusted for bonus issue & curr price of 35ct: 7.3x

assume PE expand to 10x in future, target px: 48 cts

---

estimation of liquidation value using NCAV:


http://www.scribd.com/doc/26654334/Ben-G...sset-Value

[Vseeker]

Proxy to IR ??

i'm of the view that Aspial is a poor cousin to Fragrance
Yes, Fragrance should be better proxy.

1) On the properties business, Fragrance's execution seem much better than Aspial, i opine.

2) Fragrance own most, if not all of its hotels,
with Aspial, rentals is major expense items, given its numerous jewellery outlets and also "pawnshop outlets" ?.
hotels should be better proxy than Jewellery outlets to booming tourism.

3) Aspial doing alot of its property projects thru non-100% subsidiaries,
eg. thru WCL and WCC, World Class Developments (Bedok)
==> in each of above case; minorities took out a 10%, 20% and 20% haircuts respectively.

Aspial's projects are pretty small, why give away 10-20% ??

If it's property that you are interested, there are much better players out there,
cheers.

NB: i not vested in any of them

vseeker, read some of yr posts on bukit semb, hiap hoe , lion tech chang etc.

do u think aspial is likely to be privatised in future as its ceo n spouse buying back shares recently? r u able to work out an estimate of its RNAV? Thanks in advance.

Your 1st Ques: do u think aspial is likely to be privatised in future as its ceo n spouse buying back shares recently?

what we think not impt, but what's intention of controlling sharehlders much more impt.
as at Mar2010 (AR2010), less than 12% of the Company’s shares are still in the hands of the Public,
SO only another 2% and they will trip the 90% limit that will enable them to exercise compulsory acquisition and delisting... if they so wishes.

So privatisation will be at a time of their choosing and may be at a price, quite far from what you think is fair or achievable !!

even if there are dissenting parties within MLHS Holdings,
it's still be more logical for them to privatise first and then resolved internally.


Your 2nd Ques : "r u able to work out an estimate of its RNAV? "[i

Sorry, No.
need to start from zero... involved too much efforts as Aspial got many Ikan Bilis projects,
so more works, but less accuracy and less impactful with each individual project on P&L.

Why bother with your guess figure of $20+ mio p.a. here
when there is a quite obvious $0.25B elsewhwere !!

[port]

Proxy to IR ??

i'm of the view that Aspial is a poor cousin to Fragrance
Yes, Fragrance should be better proxy.

1) On the properties business, Fragrance's execution seem much better than Aspial, i opine.

2) Fragrance own most, if not all of its hotels,
with Aspial, rentals is major expense items, given its numerous jewellery outlets and also "pawnshop outlets" ?.
hotels should be better proxy than Jewellery outlets to booming tourism.

3) Aspial doing alot of its property projects thru non-100% subsidiaries,
eg. thru WCL and WCC, World Class Developments (Bedok)
==> in each of above case; minorities took out a 10%, 20% and 20% haircuts respectively.

Aspial's projects are pretty small, why give away 10-20% ??

If it's property that you are interested, there are much better players out there,
cheers.

NB: i not vested in any of them

vseeker, read some of yr posts on bukit semb, hiap hoe , lion tech chang etc.

do u think aspial is likely to be privatised in future as its ceo n spouse buying back shares recently? r u able to work out an estimate of its RNAV? Thanks in advance.

Your 1st Ques: do u think aspial is likely to be privatised in future as its ceo n spouse buying back shares recently?

what we think not impt, but what's intention of controlling sharehlders much more impt.
as at Mar2010 (AR2010), less than 12% of the Company’s shares are still in the hands of the Public,
SO only another 2% and they will trip the 90% limit that will enable them to exercise compulsory acquisition and delisting... if they so wishes.

So privatisation will be at a time of their choosing and may be at a price, quite far from what you think is fair or achievable !!

even if there are dissenting parties within MLHS Holdings,
it's still be more logical for them to privatise first and then resolved internally.


Your 2nd Ques : "r u able to work out an estimate of its RNAV? "[i

Sorry, No.
need to start from zero... involved too much efforts as Aspial got many Ikan Bilis projects,
so more works, but less accuracy and less impactful with each individual project on P&L.

Why bother with your guess figure of $20+ mio p.a. here
when there is a quite obvious $0.25B elsewhwere !!

thanks for the input, i will take all these into consideration.

personally, i hv a distaste of firms doing a rights issue during times of financial distress eg 08-09. it's like your loyal shareholders r sitting on substantial paper loss n u get them to cough up more $$$ from their pockets.

u may also hv noticed during that time period when analysts were predicting a crisis that may last 5-10 years, not many developers dare to stick their neck out to buy or replenish their land bank as there is a heavy cost to land hoarding for extended period of time.

suppose u r in top management of aspial who intends to privatise it sometime in the near future. will u do a rights followed by a bonus to increase issued shares from 350m to 500m leading to a higher free float?

[mikh]

i used to monitor Aspial before 2008 as I thought they had good businesses. Then, i noticed that the controlling players seem to keep entering the market and doing stuff with the stock. Did not feel comfortable and just skipped it. That said, i believe the counter has gone up well since.

[port]

i used to monitor Aspial before 2008 as I thought they had good businesses. Then, i noticed that the controlling players seem to keep entering the market and doing stuff with the stock. Did not feel comfortable and just skipped it. That said, i believe the counter has gone up well since.

Hi, could u elaborate more on the part on "doing stuff with the stock"?

i appreciate your feedback. to add on, the ceo has been cleared of insider trading by CAD early this year. the 1 yr+ overhang surrounding aspial when ceo was being investigated by CAD has been lifted.

[mikh]

Did not use a good choice of words. Can't recall exectly now, but i believe i was seeing lots of transactions, always buying up the stock. Can't say its anything illegal of course, and it's not fair to insinuate that. I just did not understand what was happening and felt better to stay away. Since CAD has cleared things, should be ok i guess. Reading your posts gave me a sense of deja vu.

[port]

sites details
location-----------------------buy px in m---land area m2-----land tenure------------------------average cost psf ppr

1. lorong melayu/ lorong marzuki-----8.129----1000.8---freehold--459
2. lorong G/lorong H telok kurau------13.55----1846.5---freehold--495
3.lorong melayu---------------------3.565-----719------freehold--390
4.cavan rd--------------------------10.417----759------freehold--420
5.tembeling rd----------------------7.238-----887------freehold--541
6.joo chiat/onan rd------------------25.63-----3293-----freehold--337
7.east coast rd---------------------10.618-----2212-----freehold--318
8.glasgrow rd-----------------------6.8--------1294-----999 LH--348
9.dunearn rd----------------------6.9---------1043----freehold--439
10.bedok rd-----------------------54.3--------5729-----freehold --590
11. bedok rd----------------------6.38--------1263.2----freehold--590
12. bedok rd----------------------n/a---------222.6-----freehold--590
13.truro rd------------------------6.155------872-------freehold--450
14. cardiff grove---------------31.63------4772.3----99 leasehold--485

[Blackjack]

Did not use a good choice of words. Can't recall exectly now, but i believe i was seeing lots of transactions, always buying up the stock. Can't say its anything illegal of course, and it's not fair to insinuate that. I just did not understand what was happening and felt better to stay away. Since CAD has cleared things, should be ok i guess. Reading your posts gave me a sense of deja vu.

Didn't know you like monitoring the queue as well. I think queue activities can tell good stories. Do keep sharing your observations, appreciate them.

[mikh]

Didn't know you like monitoring the queue as well. I think queue activities can tell good stories. Do keep sharing your observations, appreciate them.

Oh yes, you are right. Sometimes better get out of the way when elephants get about their business. Unfortunately a lot of the elephantine activities are hidden from view or takes lots of effort to uncover - until months after the deed, or when dead flowers are found.

[port]

1Q net profit, 6.8m