Powerlong 1238

[bmann025]

Another Chinese Developer

Has a rather unique business modell as explained here:
http://www.powerlong.com/about/about!company.action
or here at Phillip Securities already in 2011 (model may have changed in parts today, 6 years later)
http://www.poems.com.hk/en-us/research-a..._code=1238

ATH yesterday.

Low valuation (PE around 5 and well below NAV) and growth
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tea...s=1238:HKG

4traders earnings estimates
http://www.4-traders.com/POWERLONG-REAL-...revisions/

A bit under the radar, not much research and often not included in peer compare tables

Guotai from April 2017
https://www.gtja.com.hk/UploadFiles/gtja...17_中文版.pdf

More research quoted in their company newsletters
http://www.powerlong.com/irm/irm-post.action
http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

[bmann025]

NAV estimates in the 2 research links above vary a lot.

Guotai estimated 2017E NAV of HK$5.90 per share,

Southwest Security was quoted in the July Newsletter with 'The NAV per share is expected to be RMB10.89' (=HKD 12.99). (It is not clear for which year, probably 2019E estimate, see context in newsletter).

Total Equity acc. to Intermin Report is RMB 26.497 billion, with 4 billion shares outstanding approx RMB 6.62 (=HKD 7.90) per share.
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...823401.pdf

[bmann025]

New company newsletter with August sales data

and a research report from Citi (from Aug 24, TP HKD4.7 at 45% discount on NAV)

http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

[bmann025]

Company newsletter, September data

http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

[bmann025]

Company newsletter, October data

http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

[bmann025]

Company newsletter, November data

http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

[bmann025]

Company newsletter, December data
http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

12 month sales increased by 18.7%.

Included is research from Guotai Junan. They estimate current NAV at 9.07 HKD/share. At last closing share price of HKD 4.07 discount is 55%.

(Interesting to note that Guotai estimated a 2017E NAV of HKD 5.30 last April, see posting #1, and now they have it so much higher.)

[bmann025]

Company newsletter, December data

Januar sales +37.4%

cooperation with Country Garden

1.99 bill convertible bond multiple times oversubscribed (conversion price of HK$5.4463)

Citi Further Revises Target Price Upward to HK$5.6
expects ‘18E (50%+yoy)'

http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

[bmann025]

Company newsletter with March data
plus research report from Citi. Expects sales CAGR of 2018-2020 of 50%

http://www.powerlong.com/download.action...reportNote

[bmann025]

Company newsletter with April data
http://www.powerlong.com/irm/irm-post.action

Includes research from Southwest Securities

"it is expected the EPS of the company in 2018-2020 will be HK$1.12, HK$1.36 and HK$1.62
respectively; ..
The company’s sales target in 2018 is set at RMB35 billion, up 67.6% over 2017."

Cumulative 2018-2020 EPS would then be HKD 4.10. With a current share price of HKD 4.09.