Hyflux

[Shiyi]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...operations

This is refreshing!!!  SIAS is doing the things it was set up to do.  Maybe we were wrong about them all these time.  莫忘初衷。。加油！！！

There is a saying in Chinese, "beat the drowning dog".
Olivia, once a poster girl, could have a sense of betrayal. Such is life!

[sgdividends]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...operations

This is refreshing!!!  SIAS is doing the things it was set up to do.  Maybe we were wrong about them all these time.  莫忘初衷。。加油！！！I

Actually there was some work done by other nvestors behind the scenes.

I guess Sias  woke up or maybe they have some wind of the proposal and their previous statement , " something better than nothing .." ...I think it's so bad that they better play hero before it is out.

[ACTIVIST SPEAKS]

Great Stuff from a blogger:
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2019/02/15/...-incident/



The silence of a self-proclaimed watchdog: only KPKBing when Hyflux was bust.

Like real, barking after things went wrong. Not when things were going wrong and things could possibly be done to rectify the situation. Talk of bolting the stable door after the horse bolted.

If SIAS was my watchdog, I’d have shot it. The audited accounts raised many red flags. It’s not as though, the debts, and cashflow issues were hidden. All public knowledge. So was this BS?

“Hyflux Group has generated negative operating cashflow in every year since 2009. Was this highlighted to bondholders and shareholders? If so, in what form? Why did the Board continue to pay dividends, when the operating cashflow was negative and accumulate more debt during this time?”

The investor watchdog also highlighted that Hyflux, despite the negative operating cashflow, reported profits in each year before 2017 and asked how this was possible.

Whatever, I’ll return to the fact that it kept quiet earlier: why?

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”

[donmihaihai]

An investment that depend on unreliable watchdog to bark on red flags. Who money anyway.
What is there to blame when the person with capital invested that need to bark has never bark.

How many are barking in this forum before things happened? Tried but usually ignored.

[specuvestor]

Bark too much it is ignored. Bark too little nobody scared

Let it out to bite and many mailman will be hurt before the burglar gets bitten

As usual it is how to stirke a balance, though I thought it's obvious SIAS should re-position itself as passive helping shareholder resolve issues aka CASE rather than try to be advocate / activists eg best corporate governance, research etc like David Webb

[AQ.]

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/News%20Re...eID=543828

"OLIVIA LUM VOLUNTEERS TO CONTRIBUTE HER ENTIRE STAKE OF 267 MILLION HYFLUX SHARES AND SECURITIES SOLELY TO THE OTHER HOLDERS OF PERPETUAL CAPITAL SECURITIES AND PREFERENCE SHARES AS PART OF RESTRUCTURING PLAN"

In addition, the scheme terms are also out on Pg 35 of below

https://www.hyflux.com/wp-content/upload...b-2019.pdf  

Assuming NewCo is valued @ 667mio (based on 60% NewCo for $400mio equity injection by SM)

SM                       gets 60% NewCO
unsecured claims   gets 27% NewCo + $232mio => value of 412mio
pref+perps           gets 10.26% NewCo + 27mio => value of 95mio
common equity     gets 2.74% NewCo               =>  value of 18mio
trade creditors      gets  13mio cash

It's clear that pref+perps with claims of 900mio gets ard 95mio total "valuation" i.e. ~10.5c on the dollar
It's clear trade creditors with claims of 72mio gets $18mio i.e. 25c on dollar in cash

It's not clear to me how much unsecured claims are extinguished by the 412mio though. Total claims r ~1900mio but 1046mio is contingent on liquidation (which might not materialise), and only 844mio is due to banks+MTN.
In anycase, best case recovery of MTN+banks = 412/844= 49c "valuation" on the dollar.

232+27+13=272mio  => 400-272 = 128mio of the 400mio cash injection by SM will be used as working capital.

All in all, looks like senior unsecured will be pleased and a rough deal for the mom-pops vested thru perps/pref/shares.

[Shiyi]

Good gesture by Olivia and the board of directors.
Compare this with Noble!

[sgdividends]

Good gesture by Olivia and the board of directors.
Compare this with Noble!

This isn't a nice gesture h
Fyi 

It is call pre conditioning .

To think that they even got a share and didn't cut any of their pay( in full cash) despite pleas by retail investors during the Townhall to cut and Olivia and bod defended cutting it!

1.26% donation in resturcuted shares is immaterial to the 900 m value retail investors.

[wonghw12]

If the pie is fixed, how would you re-divide it to make it fairer?

If the pie can be grown, how would you grow it?

[sgdividends]

i think many got it wrongly.

Unsecured creditors and accredited investors recovery is 41.7% ( 23.5% in cash + 18.2% in shares)
Every $100 , they get back $41.7

Perps and pref is 10.6% ( 3% in cash + 7.6% in shares)
Every $100, they get back $10.6

I guessed many based their calculation on total unsecured debt which includes contingent liabilities.
Don't be fooled.
Contingent liability comes about only when liquidation occurs.
It doesnt materialise at all if no liquidation occurs which is what happens when the restructuring goes through.
Unsecured creditors and AI investors are owed $988 million
Perps and prefs are owed $900 million
FACT CHECK: 18 January 2019 page 20. Do not include the contingent liabilities
https://www.hyflux.com/wp-content/up...oteholders.pdf