KWG Property (01813.HK)

[bmann025]

Posted on aastocks website on 5 Feb 2018 :

Elly Chen, Research Analyst of China's Real Estate at Nomura, said on conference call that she expected real estate industry in Mainland China will experience integration this year and see greater opportunities in merger and acquisitions.

Chen also assumed uptrend to continue for Chinese property developers listed in Hong Kong. The research house was upbeat on

CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK)  +0.800 (+2.883%)    Short selling $144.66M; Ratio 43.892%   ,
CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)  +0.650 (+1.876%)    Short selling $15.15M; Ratio 13.136%   ,
COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK)  +0.220 (+1.677%)    Short selling $32.16M; Ratio 5.111%   ,
LONGFOR PPT (00960.HK)  +0.650 (+3.052%)    Short selling $4.56M; Ratio 7.145%   ,
SUNAC (01918.HK)  +0.950 (+3.461%)    Short selling $37.19M; Ratio 13.899%   and
KWG PROPERTY (01813.HK)  +0.340 (+3.178%)    Short selling $5.39M; Ratio 8.966%   .

(Quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2018-02-13 12:25.)

Any suggestions for 'merger and acquisition' target? Probably smaller players with low valuation relative to NAV ...

[soros]

Sorry , I do not know any small target companies.

I did see a company announcement it was entering into joint venture with Country Garden ( 2007.HK ) but cannot remember name of company.

[bmann025]

Sorry , I do not know any small target companies.

I did see a company announcement  it was entering into joint venture with Country Garden ( 2007.HK  ) but cannot remember name of company.

That was Powerlong 1238. I have a thread about them.

[soros]

Thank you for pointing out Powerlong which is price at $3.93 this morning. also the NAV is over $6. So you could say it should be a target for valuebuyers..

This Company ( 1238.HK ) has a market cap of $15 Bil whilst Country Garden ( 2007.HK) has a market cap of $303 Bil.

So it could be a takeover prospect but I don't know if CG Directors want to gobble up its partners.

[bmann025]

gelonghui expects huge increase in revenue for 2018 and 2019

https://www.gelonghui.com/p/165242

OCBC appears to support that view:

'8-Feb-18 1813 KWG Property Holdings Ltd Start of a stellar year ahead Buy - HK$ 15.67'

https://portal.iocbc.com/assets/pdf/ospl...age-SG.pdf

[soros]

The OCBC report recommends 2 companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange :

Longfor (0960.HK) with fair value price at $25.25 and the closing price last thursday ( 15 Feb) was $24.00

KWG ( 1813.HK) with fair value at $15.67 and the closing price last thursday (15 Feb) was $12.08

Its a no brainer, you would choose KWG offering prospects for making 29 % gain compared to Longfor offering prospects for only 5% gain.

I can say this because I am biased and invested in KWG. .

[soros]

The latest announcement from KWG -Feb pre-sales was up 128% compared to previous year. ( was posted on aastocks website on 2 Mar 2018 )

KWG PROPERTY (01813.HK) +0.080 (+0.707%) Short selling $27.43M; Ratio 16.335% announced that the Group’s pre-sales value amounted to RMB4.128 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 128.1%.

The next big news event is the annual result for 2017 and size of final dividend after the Board meeting on 23 March which is less than 3 weeks away.

[bmann025]

The latest announcement from KWG -Feb pre-sales was up 128% compared to previous year. ( was posted on aastocks website on 2 Mar 2018 )

KWG PROPERTY (01813.HK)  +0.080 (+0.707%)    Short selling $27.43M; Ratio 16.335%   announced that the Group’s pre-sales value amounted to RMB4.128 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 128.1%.

The next big   news  event is the annual result for 2017 and size of  final dividend  after the Board meeting on 23 March  which is less than 3 weeks away.

Thank you, I missed that one. Just checking the last 2 years,

Jan 18 was the highest pre-sale volume
Oct 17 second
Feb 18 third.

[bmann025]

Final Results 2017 out:
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...232081.pdf

EPS RMB 1.17
Revenue +30.2%
Div 0.41 RMB (incl. interim)
Core profit +20.6%

Interesting to compare 30.2% revenue growth with pre-sales growth and see if they approximately match and hence allow to project future growth:
Pre-Sales 2016: 22.3 Bill
Pre-Sales 2017: 28.7 Bill
-> 28.7% growth

Most interesting number may hence be the 2018 pre-sales target of RMB 65 billions, a targeted increase of 126% (compare this to growth projection of gelonghui above)

[soros]

Looking closer into the figures for 2017 ( and 2016)

Turnover = RMB 11,548 Mil ( RMB 8,865 Mil)

Profit before Tax = RMB 5.555 Mil ( RMB 4,527 Mil )

Tax and LAT = RMB 1,950 Mil ( RMB 1,065 Mil)

Earnings per share = RMB 1.17 ( RMB 1.15)

Profit for year = RMB 3,605 Mil ( RMB 3,461 Mil )

So both Turnover and Pre-tax profit was higher for 2017 but the Taxman's bigger bite knocked back the profit for 2017 to 2016 level. .