Are you holding cash or making investment into progressing sector in 2016?

[whizzard]

dun think market will crash though, nowsdays too well connected.... more of a slow decline down to a lower norm....
just a guess that STI 2300 end of 2016 is possible unless gov steps in with mega-projects again... just a guess!

Too well connected can also mean easy to crash all together. 

Any crisis will knock another 500 -600 points of the STI easily. 

Without stimulus in USA, Japan and Europe , which have been done and shown not to work except inflate asset bubbles and now only China doing one man show with the tap still on, its not gonna sustain too long. Most importantly IMHO are the corporate earnings which have been in downtrend since beginning last year as the last of FED QE3 effect ran out. This also happened in 2007 where corporate earnings had a downturn for almost 2 years before the GFC hit (see the pattern?).


I do wonder what other mega project can be done locally, the resorts have been done, Changi terminal 4 is underway, only thing left is the high speed rail for Jurong area???

Don't forget Changi Airport Terminal 5.  That's a mega mega project.  They have already started the earthworks on that project, if I am not mistaken.  When fully completed, Terminal 5 is equivalent to Terminals 1, 2, 3 and 4 put together.

[Behappyalways]

Instead of holding cash and wait, if you have conviction that the markets are coming down, why not take a short position?

I agree with Fund Manager Tan Teng Boo's view that Singapore already halfway thru the bear rally, China already started while US Markets seems to be the laggard. If it is so then why not look at shorting the US Markets as there is more 'meat' in this 'laggard' (You might also gain from appreciating US Dollar by the time you sell)

Personally I feel we will have a lot of volatility in 2nd half with so many potential black swans.....Greece, Brexit, Euro countries, what happens to China in 2nd half after the 1st half stimulus, rising US dollar....etc etc.....

(You might be able to see what I short in investideas ^^)

[Life is a game]

the potential loss for short selling is unlimited because there is no limit to upside. IMO value investor should not be involved in short selling rather we should buy good value companies when prices are down and bit by bit.

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[Behappyalways]

You can short using an exchange traded fund where your maximum potential loss is your invested capital.

the potential loss for short selling is unlimited because there is no limit to upside. IMO value investor should not be involved in short selling rather we should buy good value companies when prices are down and bit by bit.

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[BlueKelah]

Instead of holding cash and wait, if you have conviction that the markets are coming down, why not take a short position?

I agree with Fund Manager Tan Teng Boo's view that Singapore already halfway thru the bear rally, China already started while US Markets seems to be the laggard. If it is so then why not look at shorting the US Markets as there is more 'meat' in this 'laggard' (You might also gain from appreciating US Dollar by the time you sell)

Personally I feel we will have a lot of volatility in 2nd half with so many potential black swans.....Greece, Brexit, Euro countries, what happens to China in 2nd half after the 1st half stimulus, rising US dollar....etc etc.....

(You might be able to see what I short in investideas ^^)

Of course if one is thinking in the short term market will continue down, shorting may make sense. However, IMHO shorting is a short term "tool" better suited for short term trading purposes, not for long term investment. 

Moreover, you dont really see shortist holding their shorts for 10years. it doesn't pay dividends as well.

my personal style is to put mechanically put money into the market as it falls and take profits as it rebounds. It may not be as profitable as shorting then going long, but it has proven to be pretty profitable nonetheless (i am pretty sure many other VBs here are sitting pretty on a lot of profits from many gems uncovered here and can't wait for another big downturn in markets again) And if I have any stocks which become big winners in a year or so (double or triple baggers), I can then take my capital back when they become fairly valued and let the rest of profits continue running up as the market rises and enjoy income flow from dividends. Over the next 10-20 years of investing, being long is something without much headache and easy to do, though there will be lots of boring times as the market goes sideways or individual undervalued stocks remain depressed.

[CityFarmer]

You can short using an exchange traded fund where your maximum potential loss is your invested capital.

Shorting ETF, should be similar as shorting stock shares, right? It sound like a real fantastic way of shorting.

Any trick that I can learn? Short with borrowed unit, or naked?

[newborn1000]

I have been struggling to buy anything for the past year, even though the market is down..........compared to 2009 when I cant stop buying

So I am keeping cash

I find that STI is being hammered by O&G , banks....the rest of the market is down albeit not attractive enough to me

[BlueKelah]

I have been struggling to buy anything for the past year, even though the market is down..........compared to 2009 when I cant stop buying

So I am keeping cash

I find that STI is being hammered by O&G , banks....the rest of the market is down albeit not attractive enough to me

I guess for 2009 it was pretty much a no brainer for value investors. All the blue chips were cheap as chips.


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[weijian]

I have been struggling to buy anything for the past year, even though the market is down..........compared to 2009 when I cant stop buying

So I am keeping cash

I find that STI is being hammered by O&G , banks....the rest of the market is down albeit not attractive enough to me

I guess for 2009 it was pretty much a no brainer for value investors. All the blue chips were cheap as chips.


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hi CF,
On hindsight, it was a no brainer. But at that time, boy~ I was scared! I can still remember my trembling fingers as I pressed the 'buy' button on the online brokerage platform, even till now.

Hi newborn1000,
Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital had previously mentioned in his last memo (Jan2016) that it is 'A Time to buy' but not 'The Time to buy'. You have similar thought lines along his.

[brattzz]

ok lah, for VBs, maybe it's time for us to train our patience...
it's easier to long than short...

Just be PATIENCE and WAIT OUT THE BEAR!

PATIENCE!