China Economic News

[specuvestor]

Across the world, I observe that urbanisation is the best contraceptives. For the first time in 2012, China urban population exceeded rural.

The one child policy has served china well on aggregate (The actual implementation nonetheless will remain much in debate for historians in years to come) instead of being "regressive and harmful one-child policy". But like Singapore in 1972, it is time to change... and fast. The one child policy has been effectively dead for the past 5 years in the cities, but it is now time to enact policies that encourage children rather than just simply abolish the old ones, before it becomes too late.

After years of foot-dragging, data fabrication and resistance, Beijing finally relaxed its one-child policy, allowing eligible young couples to have a second child. The county’s Family Planning Commission estimates there are up 20 million eligible young people who could have a second child, yet the take-up rate has been extremely disappointing.

In Sichuan, one of the country’s most populous provinces with more than 80 million inhabitants, only 28,646 couples applied — and only 5,530 of these applications were approved. Figures for major metropolises like Beijing and Shanghai are much worse. In Beijing, only 2,300 couples applied to have a second child in a megacity of more than 20 million people.

Instead of a mini baby boom after relaxing the one-child policy, the country will continue to face first a gradual and then sharp decline in the working age population, which will put more and more pressure on China’s fragile and inadequate social security system.

China needs to do couple of things quickly. First, it must eliminate or at least significantly cut back on the regressive and harmful one-child policy. It goes to the heart of China’s economic future as well as its social stability. Beijing only needs to look at Japan to have a glimpse of its potential future.

China’s leading economists and demographers have argued that the government needs not only to get rid of the one-child policy, but it must also introduce measures to entice more young people to have babies. Maybe the government needs to come up with a slogan like former treasurer Peter Costello’s “One for mum, one for dad and one for Australia.”

One of the leading advocates is Liang Jiangzhang, a successful entrepreneur and a Stanford-trained economist taught by the late Gary Becker, one of the world’s most influential population economists. He says it is possible that China would face another collapse in the birthrate, similar to the one experienced in 1990.

“The government should not only completely free up its birth policy, it must also seriously think about introducing a range of incentives to boost birthrates and launch a campaign to promote young people to have more babies,” he told Caixin, a leading business publication.

The power of the Family Planning Commission must be curtailed. The irresponsible bureaucracy has been consistently understating the country’s demographic crisis and fabricating the fertility rate in the face of mounting evidence to contrary. There are also question marks over the billions that the commission collected from citizens that breached the one-child policy.

Japan’s current woes should be a wake-up call for Beijing. There is every possibility that China might end up in a worse position than its neighbour. At least Japan got rich before it turned grey, whereas China may end up with a lot of wrinkles before it becomes prosperous.

[touzi]

I read about it in today's zaobao, but couldn't find the zb article online. I did a search and found a similar article in 人民网. Anyway, here goes the first 5 star hotel to go bankrupt in China, another victim of the austerity measure. Expect more to come in the second tier cities.


国内首家五星级酒店破产 高端酒店业寒冬来了吗

　　据中国之声《央广夜新闻》报道，近日，媒体关注国内首家五星级酒店破产事件。《央广夜新闻》记者调查显示：这家名叫雷迪森广场的酒店位于宁波慈溪市逍林镇，距离慈溪市中心5公里。酒店总经理李阳杰说，酒店还在正常营业，但老板已经跑路。“老板跑掉以后，经营不下去了，老板的朋友找到我。老板跑掉了，欠税，电、气、工资都欠着。董事会的人，除了老板，其他几个人跟我们签订了一个协议，让我们过来经营。下一步重整的方案怎么做，就是跟政府债权人，法院之间我们在谈方案，就是怎么样收购怎么样重整。”

　　如今，雷迪森广场酒店已经进入到了破产重组阶段。目前，法院正在对酒店进行评估，之后将进行网络拍卖。在拥有22家五星级酒店的宁波，雷迪森广场酒店是第一家正式破产的五星级酒店。

　　而在与宁波同为二线城市的吉林长春，某五星级酒店的营销部长介绍说，目前是他从业十几年来酒店业最困难的时期：“我们这种酒店餐饮这方面影响特别大，往年年底国企啊政府单位啊，年终的一些总结会表彰会，这些会议在我们宾馆都没有。还有政府会议就不选择五星级酒店，因为政府会议是不许到五星级酒店开会的，他们最多到四星级，他们国家公务机构最多到三星级，有特殊情况可以报批四星级，如果五星级就根本不允许进去的。”

　　另外一家地处河南政府接待型宾馆的业务主管也承认，原来在办公室坐享其成，大量客源不断的日子已一去不复返。他所在的宾馆业务已经从原来的以商务、政务为主变为大众化消费为主。

　　降价？裁员？面向百姓？高档酒店转型忙

　　调查显示：“降价”已成为多家高档酒店对抗寒冬的首选策略，在吉林省会长春，有星级酒店相关负责人表示：“已经把一些临时的工人进行了裁剪，在岗的也是一人多职，不像原来定岗定员，现在哪有任务到哪去，客房部、餐饮部都已经打通管理。”而福建三明的一家五星级酒店工作人员则明言：为了减少开支，压缩成本，酒店已经开始使用越来越多的学服务专业的实习生。

　　除了价格战，婚宴牌、小企业会议牌……这些以前星级酒店相对看不上的业务现在已经日益成为利润的主要来源。

　　是供需失衡还是反腐影响？”囚徒困境”怎么破

　　华美酒店顾问有限公司首席知识官赵焕焱先生认为，星级酒店遇冷根源在供需失衡。“主要的问题是供大于求。全球所有的地方对酒店的投入都是有控制的，我们中国曾经是控制做的最好的国家。比如在北京，曾经需要副总理和副委员长签字以后，才能建设建国饭店。以前还规定一个省市只能建一家旅游饭店。随着《行政许可法》出台，为了防止寻租腐败，放开了限制，导致目前建造的酒店比实际需要的要多。”

　　而《央广夜新闻》观察员钱彤则认为：恰是“反四风”、“八项规定”挤破了酒店业虚假繁荣的泡沫。“恰恰是因为过去比如说像公款消费，包括商界跟官界之间的这种为了摆排场去进行高档餐饮，把整个酒店业催生到了跟实际市场需求脱离比较大的情况。恰恰是这次经过了四风整顿，说明了这中间到底空在哪儿？我们从一线城市到二三线城市里面，需不需要有这样多高星级的酒店？”

　　赵焕焱对高档酒店业转型中纷纷打价格战的做法表示忧虑：同质化情况下价格竞争是唯一的手段，曾经有海外的高消费团队在海南看了13家五星级酒店结果还说不能下决定，因为觉得所有的酒店都是一样的。“囚徒困境”下，越是经营不好的就越打价格战、裁员等等，然后就造成服务水准进一步的下降。只有引导、减缓星级酒店盲目建设的速度，才能逐步缓和整体供大于求的情况。

　　钱彤则建议：酒店投资商不要趋从一些“做大、做地标、抬房价“等行政意识，让市场通过竞争最终做出最好的选择。

[CityFarmer]

At a glance, the 10 million jobs is quite a lot, but approx 25% reduction from last year. Anyway, the quality is more important for job creation...

China's Li says to create 10 million jobs in 2015: China Daily

SHANGHAI - China's Premier Li Keqiang pledged to create at least 10 million new jobs in 2015, the state run China Daily newspaper said on Tuesday, despite economic growth that slowed to its weakest pace in nearly a quarter of a century last year.

Beijing views healthy employment levels as a top policy priority and an important condition for social stability. Last year the country created around 13 million jobs.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/chin...hina-daily

[BlueKelah]

At a glance, the 10 million jobs is quite a lot, but approx 25% reduction from last year. Anyway, the quality is more important for job creation...

China's Li says to create 10 million jobs in 2015: China Daily

SHANGHAI - China's Premier Li Keqiang pledged to create at least 10 million new jobs in 2015, the state run China Daily newspaper said on Tuesday, despite economic growth that slowed to its weakest pace in nearly a quarter of a century last year.

Beijing views healthy employment levels as a top policy priority and an important condition for social stability. Last year the country created around 13 million jobs.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/chin...hina-daily

He can pledge what he wants. Seems like china props deleveraging is well underway but any interest rate drops are "unhealthily" being channelled into their stock market speculation. Margin loans there are already at at all time high.

Looking more and more like Japan when they crashed in 1991.

[CityFarmer]

At a glance, the 10 million jobs is quite a lot, but approx 25% reduction from last year. Anyway, the quality is more important for job creation...

China's Li says to create 10 million jobs in 2015: China Daily

SHANGHAI - China's Premier Li Keqiang pledged to create at least 10 million new jobs in 2015, the state run China Daily newspaper said on Tuesday, despite economic growth that slowed to its weakest pace in nearly a quarter of a century last year.

Beijing views healthy employment levels as a top policy priority and an important condition for social stability. Last year the country created around 13 million jobs.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/chin...hina-daily

He can pledge what he wants. Seems like china props deleveraging is well underway but any interest rate drops are "unhealthily" being channelled into their stock market speculation. Margin loans there are already at at all time high.

Looking more and more like Japan when they crashed in 1991.

In case you aren't aware, the equity margin market has been regulated lately. The risk of margin trading in stock market is highly reduced.

[BlueKelah]

margin loans have been almost triple since June last year now standing around 1.1 trillion yuan, up from 400+billion last june. And only the top 3 brokerages were banned with no more new margin lending. smaller brokerages still can have new margin accounts.

That is hardly complete regulation. It may also lead to margin lending from shadow banking sector which will be much harder to quantify.

The more China stocks go up, the more they edge closer to a Japan like collapse. Now that Europe has started easing with the 60billion a month, global market stabilized, but China is still ticking timebomb.

Just monitor and see, the next crash will be quite spectacular. Could be a combination of credit crisis from shale oil bankruptcy and Chinese stock tumbling.

[specuvestor]

^^How many regulators curb trading in a 6 months bull market after a 7 years bear market, which was actually self induced with RRR hiked from 7.5% to 17.5%, rather than GFC? While most Asian markets are now hovering within 10% from 07 highs due to low cost of funds, Shanghai market after the recent run up is still 40% below 2007 peak.

With so many negative news on Xi's anti-corruption drive, and even listco getting hit, is that negative for China in the longer term? At what point do we say they are actually in the process of defusing the "time-bomb" rather than the west waiting for the invisible hand to ignite the bomb?

China's policy making is not perfect with many micro-hiccups but I think the big picture is roughly right. I think their will to improve on quality growth will be evident, and a rerating catalyst.

[CityFarmer]

margin loans have been almost triple since June last year now standing around 1.1 trillion yuan, up from 400+billion last june. And only the top 3 brokerages were banned with no more new margin lending. smaller brokerages still can have new margin accounts.

That is hardly complete regulation. It may also lead to margin lending from shadow banking sector which will be much harder to quantify.

The more China stocks go up, the more they edge closer to a Japan like collapse. Now that Europe has started easing with the 60billion a month, global market stabilized, but China is still ticking timebomb.

Just monitor and see, the next crash will be quite spectacular. Could be a combination of credit crisis from shale oil bankruptcy and Chinese stock tumbling.

To add-on. On top of the trio, the regulator also punished 9 brokerages, for unqualified margin accounts. The regulator also banned banks from lending for securities.

I concur with Mr. Specuvestor's "China's policy making is not perfect with many micro-hiccups but I think the big picture is roughly right."

[BlueKelah]

What Clampdown? China Margin Traders Boost Debt to Record

"After a two-day decline spurred by regulatory efforts on Jan. 16 to curb margin lending by some of China’s biggest brokerages, the value of shares purchased with borrowed cash has rebounded to an all-time high. The outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange climbed to a record 771.4 billion yuan ($123 billion) yesterday, up from about 751 billion yuan on Jan. 20. "


============================================

human greed knows no bounds...

Their GDP growth is slowing, their property market is dropping and further asset appreciation in stocks has been capped.

In the near future, their population growth has become stagnant and soon an aging population with health problems from things like smoking and pollution which were not well controlled are going to start taxing their hospitals and health budget.

But the main risk are the property and now the stock market asset bubbles which have to pop or deflate at some stage.

[thor666]

What Clampdown? China Margin Traders Boost Debt to Record

"After a two-day decline spurred by regulatory efforts on Jan. 16 to curb margin lending by some of China’s biggest brokerages, the value of shares purchased with borrowed cash has rebounded to an all-time high. The outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange climbed to a record 771.4 billion yuan ($123 billion) yesterday, up from about 751 billion yuan on Jan. 20. "


============================================

human greed knows no bounds...

Their GDP growth is slowing, their property market is dropping and further asset appreciation in stocks has been capped.

In the near future, their population growth has become stagnant and soon an aging population with health problems from things like smoking and pollution which were not well controlled are going to start taxing their hospitals and health budget.

But the main risk are the property and now the stock market asset bubbles which have to pop or deflate at some stage.

Conclusion: buy fcl, sell capitaland?
(above not advice to buy or sell)

Interesting times indeed.

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