22-01-2015, 12:05 PM
Across the world, I observe that urbanisation is the best contraceptives. For the first time in 2012, China urban population exceeded rural.
The one child policy has served china well on aggregate (The actual implementation nonetheless will remain much in debate for historians in years to come) instead of being "regressive and harmful one-child policy". But like Singapore in 1972, it is time to change... and fast. The one child policy has been effectively dead for the past 5 years in the cities, but it is now time to enact policies that encourage children rather than just simply abolish the old ones, before it becomes too late.
The one child policy has served china well on aggregate (The actual implementation nonetheless will remain much in debate for historians in years to come) instead of being "regressive and harmful one-child policy". But like Singapore in 1972, it is time to change... and fast. The one child policy has been effectively dead for the past 5 years in the cities, but it is now time to enact policies that encourage children rather than just simply abolish the old ones, before it becomes too late.
(22-01-2015, 10:24 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: After years of foot-dragging, data fabrication and resistance, Beijing finally relaxed its one-child policy, allowing eligible young couples to have a second child. The county’s Family Planning Commission estimates there are up 20 million eligible young people who could have a second child, yet the take-up rate has been extremely disappointing.
In Sichuan, one of the country’s most populous provinces with more than 80 million inhabitants, only 28,646 couples applied — and only 5,530 of these applications were approved. Figures for major metropolises like Beijing and Shanghai are much worse. In Beijing, only 2,300 couples applied to have a second child in a megacity of more than 20 million people.
Instead of a mini baby boom after relaxing the one-child policy, the country will continue to face first a gradual and then sharp decline in the working age population, which will put more and more pressure on China’s fragile and inadequate social security system.
China needs to do couple of things quickly. First, it must eliminate or at least significantly cut back on the regressive and harmful one-child policy. It goes to the heart of China’s economic future as well as its social stability. Beijing only needs to look at Japan to have a glimpse of its potential future.
China’s leading economists and demographers have argued that the government needs not only to get rid of the one-child policy, but it must also introduce measures to entice more young people to have babies. Maybe the government needs to come up with a slogan like former treasurer Peter Costello’s “One for mum, one for dad and one for Australia.”
One of the leading advocates is Liang Jiangzhang, a successful entrepreneur and a Stanford-trained economist taught by the late Gary Becker, one of the world’s most influential population economists. He says it is possible that China would face another collapse in the birthrate, similar to the one experienced in 1990.
“The government should not only completely free up its birth policy, it must also seriously think about introducing a range of incentives to boost birthrates and launch a campaign to promote young people to have more babies,” he told Caixin, a leading business publication.
The power of the Family Planning Commission must be curtailed. The irresponsible bureaucracy has been consistently understating the country’s demographic crisis and fabricating the fertility rate in the face of mounting evidence to contrary. There are also question marks over the billions that the commission collected from citizens that breached the one-child policy.
Japan’s current woes should be a wake-up call for Beijing. There is every possibility that China might end up in a worse position than its neighbour. At least Japan got rich before it turned grey, whereas China may end up with a lot of wrinkles before it becomes prosperous.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)