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18-02-2014, 10:23 AM
(This post was last modified: 18-02-2014, 10:24 AM by opmi.)
(18-02-2014, 08:05 AM)chialc Wrote: (17-02-2014, 06:37 PM)specuvestor Wrote: (17-02-2014, 03:46 PM)chialc88 Wrote: At this time... yes, we don't need any...
I noticed that there is a strong mood swing now...
Two weeks ago, it was like so moody...
Last week (specifically after 10 Feb), there was a sudden jump of life...
Now, we don't need any booster...
Life is Great!
 Love Compassion
actually I wasn't thinking in terms of weeks 
Like opmi say if there is no reduction there is no "landing"
IMHO I think 10-15% decline next 24 months is very likely... I've been bearish past 2.5 years so I am biased 
Two questions:
1. If you're bearish past 2.5 years, won't you be bearish for another 2.5 years? (or 5.0 or 7.5 years?)
2. If the housing price decline 15%, will you take action?
if not, what if decline 25%, will you take action?
if not, what if decline 35%?
I am a property agent so that I can be in the front line of the battlefield...
I always asked what if I'm wrong?
because if I take care of the downside, the upside will take care of me.
Chiac,
Since you talk about price upside/downside, what is the true price for a particular property? Or how do you value a particular property?
(Just for discussion sake)
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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With buyer stamp duty, prices dropping 10-15% just mean govt becomes the one creaming the margin instead of developer. Since land cost already fixed, developer will try to cut costs cut corners to compensate for profit margin ending up with poor quality product. Home owners are screwed.
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18-02-2014, 11:59 AM
opmi wrote: "what is the true price for a particular property? Or how do you value a particular property? (Just for discussion sake)"
Please forgive me on my questions/answers because I'm still learning.
I think a particular property could have different values at the same time (depends on the purpose of the valuations).
If I'm buying for rental yield, I'll make sure that the income is more than expenses. (hopefully, after many years, the appreciation will be higher than inflations too).
I'll go after freehold as I think that freehold is getting scarcer and likely to appreciate faster than leasehold. (I think that after Hillfort success, 60 year lease will be getting more common).
Most of the time, property prices does not fluctuate much.
However, I had seen enough cases that a particular property is transacted/selling at much higher/lower price than market price.
Since 10 Feb 2014, there is a surge in activities.
Developers have dished out "star buy" more aggressively too.
Love Compassion
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(18-02-2014, 11:59 AM)chialc88 Wrote: opmi wrote: "what is the true price for a particular property? Or how do you value a particular property? (Just for discussion sake)"
Please forgive me on my questions/answers because I'm still learning.
I think a particular property could have different values at the same time (depends on the purpose of the valuations).
If I'm buying for rental yield, I'll make sure that the income is more than expenses. (hopefully, after many years, the appreciation will be higher than inflations too).
I'll go after freehold as I think that freehold is getting scarcer and likely to appreciate faster than leasehold. (I think that after Hillfort success, 60 year lease will be getting more common).
Most of the time, property prices does not fluctuate much.
However, I had seen enough cases that a particular property is transacted/selling at much higher/lower price than market price.
Since 10 Feb 2014, there is a surge in activities.
Developers have dished out "star buy" more aggressively too.
Love Compassion
Discuss discuss only. I also learning.
Yes. So far the references u mentioned are relative or comparative.
Any way to get a true value or a 'fair market price' for a particular property?
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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18-02-2014, 12:38 PM
opmi wrote: Any way to get a true value or a 'fair market price' for a particular property?
Different type of property will have different criteria, eg. two shops side by side with equal size but have different frontage will command different price.
For Resi, I think with the increasing hectic/workaholic lifestyle of Singapore, those property adjacent to eatery/shopping centre will be getting more and more popular.
I feel that mixed development aka upper tower is Resi, hotel or service apartment and lower tower is shopping centre would be a trends too.
Especially if these mixed development is located near new business/industrial hubs.
Love Compassion
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On this new 60LH housing… I have been thinking hard on this Q, and I now have this silly solution.
There are quite a no. of 99LH properties which are into 30-40 yrs old.
Is there a possibility that the govt’s next move is to bring down 99LH to 60LH.
The Hillford, so called Sg’s 1st retirement resort home, is to guage S’porean’s reaction.
I think by doing so, it will bring about some kind of tripartite solution to owner / developer / govt.
Owner – not so willing to fork out $ to upkeep and maintain estate which could be a drain on their finances.
Developer – need to top up differential premium to 99LH on top of tender / construction cost, etc. Banks must be willing to lend too.
Govt – they have all the more to win in every aspect. If they can convert FH to 99LH, why not 99LH to 60LH?
But of course, our govt will not announce it openly. They will only come in to ‘help’ when approached. They have all the time to wait.
But not owners, they will have issues when the estate is too run down.
Oh well, sometimes my imaginations just go wild! Or you can say my creative juice just keep flowing…
(18-02-2014, 11:59 AM)chialc88 Wrote: (I think that after Hillfort success, 60 year lease will be getting more common).
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having read the 3 local banks' statements on their fy results and risk of property dip of 15% against stability of their balance sheet..i am quite comforted..
I think piyush & botak said dip of 15% is from a 'position of strength'..nothing to be fearful basically from bankers' perspective..
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19-02-2014, 07:19 AM
Definitely possible...
(18-02-2014, 02:58 PM)etan Wrote: Is there a possibility that the govt’s next move is to bring down 99LH to 60LH.
Live with Passion, Lead with Compassion
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(19-02-2014, 07:19 AM)chialc Wrote: Definitely possible...
(18-02-2014, 02:58 PM)etan Wrote: Is there a possibility that the govt’s next move is to bring down 99LH to 60LH. Of course i think our G will as HDB flats become too expensive to own@99LH. Actually who is responsible for making HDB too expensive?
Our G will as usual (G's style of psychology) gives you "special concessions" for buying 60LH and may be a "penalty if you opt for 99LH. i bet it will definitely happens sooner or later. And you can do nothing about it. You can only "@#*$ LL"! . But some will still think our G is genius. And i think our G is in a way. Our G so far so good makes almost all Singaporeans accept whatever G want to do. If the protest is too strong, G will back off and then come back and try on the people with sugar coated more or less same thing (policy) again. One word-"SUPER DUPER SALEMAN"!
NO???
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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Which country allows non-citizens own public housing ?
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