Home prices may drop 15% this year: DBS CEO

[corydorus]

I do agreed is unlikely to be 15%. You need more serious measure and recession to really prick this bubble. Which reason why we cannot release the brakes else all the past effort (measures) will all go to waste. Half measure do not cut.

[opmi]

Potato lover & Ben

Buyers no loan to buy means no money to buy. Want also no use.

If prices stop rising and starts falling, investment demand will disappear. It won't reappear until down >15-20% esp the rich foreigners. Supply will still come. Developers wil cut prices.

Developers like crybabies. Haven't even cut prices, already asking to roll back measures. Govt owe them?

Developers fat fat from boom. Can take 10%-15% drop. Besides, a lot of them JV now. Wont die one. Their talk on systemic risks of falling property prices is BS.

Govt should not roll back measures until developers cuts prices aggressively. Soft landing is down 10-15%. Stay flat is not soft landing.

Tks Ben. Agreed with you.

it is more like people still want to buy but cannot get money becos of measures such as TDSR, etc.

Sellers also did not want to sell down their properties when they are still have a good job

In my humble view, max is 5% drop in 2014.

I have superficial knowledge about the dynamic of property market, but IMHO, a price drop of 10-15 per cent is not likely in view of the current global/regional economy and full employment situation in Singapore.

1. Our govt wants a stabilize property market that corresponds with economic growth. I don’t think they want to see a significant and rapid price correction. It is not good for them in terms of government revenue (revenue drops and so may have to increase taxes elsewhere to balance the budget), and is also not good for many property owners in Singapore (how to answer to them in the next election?). Govt have rolled out 7 rounds of cooling measures so far, and so can easily roll back some of these measures to support the market when needed. The recent exemption to TDSR, though is not a U turn to the cooling measures, is nevertheless viewed as govt intention to see a soft landing.

2. If price drops more than 10%, it will nullify the effect of ABSD. This could attract rich foreign buyers to flock back to Singapore again. Singapore is still a very attractive location to these rich investors. And don’t underestimate the numbers of HNWI in Singapore who are at the sidelines waiting for price to drop.

According to a Credit Suisse report published in The Edge, it says that residential property price will fall no more than 5% unless there is an external shock. In the past four decades, Singapore private property prices have fallen four times, all of which were triggered by external shocks – the oil crisis in 1985, the AFC, the dotcom crisis followed by SARS, and the GFC. Aside from these events, prices have not corrected beyond 5%.

If I were to make a wild guess, I think a likely and healthy correction is about 5 – 10 per cent.

[pianist]

I have a pr friend who is waiting for result of citizenship application. been 7 months and result out anytime..the first thing he told me he will do is to buy a private condo immediately so that can save on the absd. he said that this is main motive of this application to become citizen.

[opmi]

I have a pr friend who is waiting for result of citizenship application. been 7 months and result out anytime..the first thing he told me he will do is to buy a private condo immediately so that can save on the absd. he said that the main motive of this application to become citizen.

This is the effect of govt differentiating PR and citizen. loose citizenship policy only encourage feet dragging and two timing PRs.

Jialat 7 months. Last time PAP Govt hands out PRs like Santa Claus.

[pianist]

I have a pr friend who is waiting for result of citizenship application. been 7 months and result out anytime..the first thing he told me he will do is to buy a private condo immediately so that can save on the absd. he said that the main motive of this application to become citizen.

This is the effect of govt differentiating PR and citizen. loose citizenship policy only encourage feet dragging and two timing PRs.

Jialat 7 months. Last time PAP Govt hands out PRs like Santa Claus.

plus 2nd motive besides getting cheaper condo thr citizenship, is the ability to apply for civil service jobs. iron rice bowl..like amy cheong type

[Freenasi]

Many people are waiting for developers to cut prices, waiting waiting but developers still holding.

[Big Toe]

It's any one's guess how much or far the drop will be.
We have barely seen any form of significant correction in the property market.
Much like the stock market, no one will talk about it when it falls significantly.

It may turn out to be a crash in slow motion(or some call it soft landing) and play out over many many years.
One thing for sure, chances are that there is no money to be made if you buy a residential property now.
Forget about residential property investment. (Unless you are hunting for a place to stay, then it's good time to wait and do nothing)

[Big Toe]

The same can be said for the local stock market, there just isnt any earnings catalyst/story to make it come alive.
But between residential properties and the local stock market, i think the stock market will hold up better.
But having said that, I, for one is staying out of the local stock market, the ship have already left, there is not much meat left.

Good time to look elsewhere or just keep cash handy for the next opportunity that comes around. There is a time to invest and there's a time to do absolutely nothing.

[opmi]

I have a pr friend who is waiting for result of citizenship application. been 7 months and result out anytime..the first thing he told me he will do is to buy a private condo immediately so that can save on the absd. he said that the main motive of this application to become citizen.

This is the effect of govt differentiating PR and citizen. loose citizenship policy only encourage feet dragging and two timing PRs.

Jialat 7 months. Last time PAP Govt hands out PRs like Santa Claus.

plus 2nd motive besides getting cheaper condo thr citizenship, is the ability to apply for civil service jobs. iron rice bowl..like amy cheong type

amy cheong is Malaysian turns Australian. Not SG SC.

[opmi]

Many people are waiting for developers to cut prices, waiting waiting but developers still holding.

Developers more like waiting for each other. Sooner or later one.