Jardine Cycle & Carriage

[dzwm87]

My two cents hopefully is that your thesis is not solely based on them being a Taipan.

Not all Taipans are successful all the time. And the intention to build a controlling stake doesn't always mean it will.

What happens if it does not end up as a majority stake? What else is driving their business? How would u evaluate each of the moving parts?

[greengiraffe]

Unfortunately, their track has been so powerful that I can only rely on them.

They have got big $ and they have always been very long term. Unlike us, we have been wrong term too many a times.

Anyway, this is a very good eye open - total volume of rights turnover less than 3m the arbitrage margin between the rts and the shares has been a razor thin ($0.10 on the average before transaction costs).

If anyone professor is writing a thesis on riskless arbitrage, the finding will be how much total mkt capital has been wiped out for merely razor thin riskless profits.

Caveat Emptor
GG

My two cents hopefully is that your thesis is not solely based on them being a Taipan.

Not all Taipans are successful all the time. And the intention to build a controlling stake doesn't always mean it will.

What happens if it does not end up as a majority stake? What else is driving their business? How would u evaluate each of the moving parts?

[rayleen88]

this lao sai really powerful..

been buying since XR.. no eyes see

[rayleen88]

I think there's nothing much the taipans can do also. From $54 to $32 in 2013 Aug, $22 drop and only recovered after a few months later..

Relentless selling everyday..and the short volume everyday is 80% of total volume. The rouge traders are shortselling everyday

[Stephen]

I think there's nothing much the taipans can do also. From $54 to $32 in 2013 Aug, $22 drop and only recovered after a few months later..

Relentless selling everyday..and the short volume everyday is 80% of total volume. The rouge traders are shortselling everyday

Just started a small position today.

The daily short report still going strong. Better to wait for the daily shorts to reduce in volume before entering again...though the downside is rather limited, assuming it to be 26 bucks given the issued rights is at that price.

[financiallyfree]

Hi buddies, is there any reason why will there be short selling for this counter?

[rayleen88]

i dont think retailers like us who buy maybe 200-1k shares will dare to short.. because anytime JC&C can U-turn.

It's those big ang mo funds shorting in view of Astra's potential weak reporting and weakening IDR..

We can only stay inside and get whipped by them.. sigh..

P/E of 11 post rights of 395million shares issue.

How low more can she become?

[rayleen88]

Anyway today staging a come back.. almost $1 reversal from low of $29.33.. those who caught it already in the $$

[Stephen]

Hi buddies, is there any reason why will there be short selling for this counter?

Hi,

dont know..but rights expire worthless on 9 July.

So i am thinking right price can reduced and this in turn reduces the price of Jardine
as rights price + 26 = current price.

I would probably fire tmr a smallish position again.

[greengiraffe]

Its computer driven algo trading...

Once the computer long the rights, it will just sell the mother shares with borrowed scripts which will be return once the rights are subscribed.

U can see the fairly constant trading spread between the rights and the mother shares.

There are plenty of big bank backed traders that are using their computer trading systems to get this riskless arbitrage.

On ASX, such a phenomenon seldom exists as rights are non renounceable.

Rights trading last day on Thursday.

J C&C steep decline started when rights were first announced and when actual rights trading started, all hell break loose. Trading volume is also extraordinarily high.

Many companies with rights issues have experienced such selloff before.

Basically, its human against computers and in a relentless decline, negative sentiment and hence all sorts of justifications emerges and hence feed through to the vicious cycle.

Don't believe too much in my conspiracy theories. Do check against Astra and JC
&C share price over last 5 yrs via bloomberg.

Trading Vested
GG