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Sino Grandness
18-09-2017, 01:00 PM, (This post was last modified: 18-09-2017, 01:25 PM by specuvestor.)
Post: #1771
RE: Sino Grandness
I haven't been following that closely after this thread was closed and hopefully moms-and-pops reading this thread won't get sucked in.

As expected SFGI raised RMB319.5m in rights BEFORE the SB2 payment date of ~RMB200m. We can continue to count the beans and not that difficult to guesstimate when they will need cash again. BTW I think the original CB creditors got most of their principal back with SB1 and SB2 bonds.

I'm sure the other forums are reading this and I just have to say that you guys are more die-hard than cult followers. Seriously come earthquake and fire nothing will change your mind so I can't be bothered. What need to be said had been said 15 months ago. To be honest Huang is quite amazing.

(20-06-2016, 03:06 PM)specuvestor Wrote: 1) Dividends has been paid from the listco and IMHO funded by TTA CL placement hence cash left is US$20m minus US$2m dividend is US$18m. As per my previous post: "We know they raised about US$25m from TTA about 18 months back and now looking for another US$20m from TTA in form of convertible loan instead of placement like last time. Why? Prima facie we can guess the cash burn rate is roughly US$18m a year." Hence I would think they have roughly a one year window if IPO doesn't happen which is also incidentally close to the SB2 payment date.

2) Now that dividend is paid and cannot be rescinded, I will take my time to formulate my queries and will update accordingly if I wish to.

3) As per I posted, I'm guessing that the 2Q listco balance sheet will show $20m increase in "investment into subsidiary" and $20m decrease in "loan to subsidiary". Little to no cash movement. Let's see.

4) SB1 has been paid as expected which is close to the cash amount end 2015 balance sheet. The question is of course why they need to have SB1 and SB2 payment dates rather than just one SB date since GF cashflow can afford it. There are those in other forums asking why they so geh-kiang put in an expected IPO date. I think it is actually related to why the creditors allow SB1 & SB2 dates. In any case if PHIP not out this week, the date will be missed, which is not unusual that SFGI misses deadlines for creditors. 

The above points are in relation to why I think the dividend and SB1 repayment events would actually clarify their cash positions. From that day on, any additional verifiable cash outlay can be credited to real operational cash flow. We can count the beans from here.

5) Without any significant adjustment in CB optionality and interest expense 2Q results will be weaker QoQ with lower margins and higher A&P. If PHIP delays further they will likely need to incorporate 1H results into prospectus.

These are specific projection points I am highlighting, with historical figures as a mean rather than an end.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

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