Sino Grandness

[Young Investor]

Hi Yeokiwi

You post will be more complete if you include Sino's clarification dated 30 Oct 16:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGFI_Res...eID=426912

[piaopiao]

Piao Piao

You can read various posts online that shows GF drinks in the stores in Shenzhen, HK and Guangzhou area. I've only seen a post that claims they saw the product in northern China. The anecdotal evidence explains why some don't see their products hence claim their non existence, yet many sees them in Guangdong area, including their promotions and advertisements.

They have factories in Sichuan and Hubei with Guangdong as main trading center but I don't think they ever breakdown revenue by province, which would have been illuminating.

Edit: Hubei is the factory not Guangdong Shenzhen

Specuvestor,

There are also pictures showing sales in other provinces.

The factory in Guangdong does not belong to Garden Fresh. It does contract manufacturing for Garden Fresh.

Garden Fresh factory in Sichuan is small, 90,000 tonnes a year. Its Hubei factory is much larger, 200,000 tonnes.

It is not a good basis to say that since there are factories in Guangdong in Sichuan, sales in these two provinces are good. 

The Anhui factory, nearing completion, is 240,000 tonnes.

[specuvestor]

Specuvestor,

There are also pictures showing sales in other provinces.

The factory in Guangdong does not belong to Garden Fresh. It does contract manufacturing for Garden Fresh.

Garden Fresh factory in Sichuan is small, 90,000 tonnes a year. Its Hubei factory is much larger, 200,000 tonnes.

It is not a good basis to say that since there are factories in Guangdong in Sichuan, sales in these two provinces are good. 

The Anhui factory, nearing completion, is 240,000 tonnes.

Piao Piao

I think the links below already answers your question, especially pg 2 & 3 of the company's reply. Anhui was supposed to be completed in 1H17 as per the link and it is not for GF drinks. For those who follow the stock, the idea was GF is the high growth area yet future capex going into Grandness Anhui which the past few years' results doesn't seem promising.

I didn't say sales in Guangdong and Sichuan are good because of the factories, though usually production tends to be near demand, port or end demand. You might want to post links to show activities in other provinces but anecdotally most of the activities I see online is within Guangdong, even for the recent YoungInvestor's post. But it's anecdotal based on what forums been trying to prove / disprove.

Hi Yeokiwi

You post will be more complete if you include Sino's clarification dated 30 Oct 16:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGFI_Res...eID=426912

https://geoinvesting.com/geoinvesting-re...statement/

[piaopiao]

Specuvestor,

There are also pictures showing sales in other provinces.

The factory in Guangdong does not belong to Garden Fresh. It does contract manufacturing for Garden Fresh.

Garden Fresh factory in Sichuan is small, 90,000 tonnes a year. Its Hubei factory is much larger, 200,000 tonnes.

It is not a good basis to say that since there are factories in Guangdong in Sichuan, sales in these two provinces are good. 

The Anhui factory, nearing completion, is 240,000 tonnes.

Piao Piao

I think the links below already answers your question, especially pg 2 & 3 of the company's reply. Anhui was supposed to be completed in 1H17 as per the link and it is not for GF drinks. For those who follow the stock, the idea was GF is the high growth area yet future capex going into Grandness Anhui which the past few years' results doesn't seem promising.

I didn't say sales in Guangdong and Sichuan are good because of the factories, though usually production tends to be near demand, port or end demand. You might want to post links to show activities in other provinces but anecdotally most of the activities I see online is within Guangdong, even for the recent YoungInvestor's post. But it's anecdotal based on what forums been trying to prove / disprove.

Hi Yeokiwi

You post will be more complete if you include Sino's clarification dated 30 Oct 16:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGFI_Res...eID=426912

https://geoinvesting.com/geoinvesting-re...statement/

It is a fact that the factory in Anhui will produce both canned food and beverage, just like the Hubei factory.

The factory land in Hubei is 10 hectares. It is owned by Garden Fresh.  Grandness, the canned business, is the lessee.

The factory land in Anhui is 13 hectares. It is owned by Grandness.  Garden Fresh is the lessee. 

This is disclosed in page 182 of Garden Fresh draft propectus. 

During the 2Q results briefing, CEO mentioned that works on the beverage factory in Anhui is progressing.

[portuser]

Specuvestor wrote:
"Anhui was supposed to be completed in 1H17 as per the link and it is not for GF drinks."


Garden Fresh is in Anhui.

Page I-31 of Garden Fresh draft prospectus states the following:

"As at 31 December 2015, deposit of RMB 246,800,000..........had been paid to independent third party suppliers for acquisition of production equipments in Anhui Province, PRC............"

[PkNanas]

Hi PkNanas

Just for context we have covered this company since their CB issuance days and I have been to their AGM twice. So we didn't read about it. We followed it

If you are keen you can look back the thread. Mr Prayudh is a shrewd business man but not infallible just as Buffett had been wrong. But from their point of view they managed the risk via asset allocation. I think a lot of people don't understand this.

A lot of people also think creditors extend their loans means confidence. They should check out the O&G sector and the difference between refinancing and restructuring. If you ask me of all the names being thrown up, eg SHK, Taiwanese, GS, TTA, etc the smartest (or "most connected") money in the past 5 years is Asdew's Alan Wang... went in before splits, got out before rights, on a sizable 5% position.

NB BTW Wechat Food is not related to Tencent...

Hi Specuvestor,

Thanks for replying to my post/question.

Back to my rationality, for shrewd businessman of Mr. Prayudth, with his large investment in P80 logan essence and exclusive distributorship to Sino Grandness, is it not easy for Mr. Prayutdh to verify Garden Fresh's marketing reach and distribution network in China?

[yeokiwi]

Back to my rationality, for shrewd businessman of Mr. Prayudth, with his large investment in P80 logan essence and exclusive distributorship to Sino Grandness, is it not easy for Mr. Prayutdh to verify Garden Fresh's marketing reach and distribution network in China?

Investors are naturally skeptical since there were cases of "supposedly" shrewd companies investing in frauds.
Eg.
QAF and China Food
Raffles Education and Oriental Century

[BlueKelah]

Specuvestor,

There are also pictures showing sales in other provinces.

The factory in Guangdong does not belong to Garden Fresh. It does contract manufacturing for Garden Fresh.

Garden Fresh factory in Sichuan is small, 90,000 tonnes a year. Its Hubei factory is much larger, 200,000 tonnes.

It is not a good basis to say that since there are factories in Guangdong in Sichuan, sales in these two provinces are good. 

The Anhui factory, nearing completion, is 240,000 tonnes.

Piao Piao

I think the links below already answers your question, especially pg 2 & 3 of the company's reply. Anhui was supposed to be completed in 1H17 as per the link and it is not for GF drinks. For those who follow the stock, the idea was GF is the high growth area yet future capex going into Grandness Anhui which the past few years' results doesn't seem promising.

I didn't say sales in Guangdong and Sichuan are good because of the factories, though usually production tends to be near demand, port or end demand. You might want to post links to show activities in other provinces but anecdotally most of the activities I see online is within Guangdong, even for the recent YoungInvestor's post. But it's anecdotal based on what forums been trying to prove / disprove.

Hi Yeokiwi

You post will be more complete if you include Sino's clarification dated 30 Oct 16:

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGFI_Res...eID=426912

https://geoinvesting.com/geoinvesting-re...statement/

It is a fact that the factory in Anhui will produce both canned food and beverage, just like the Hubei factory.

The factory land in Hubei is 10 hectares. It is owned by Garden Fresh.  Grandness, the canned business, is the lessee.

The factory land in Anhui is 13 hectares. It is owned by Grandness.  Garden Fresh is the lessee. 

This is disclosed in page 182 of Garden Fresh draft propectus. 

During the 2Q results briefing, CEO mentioned that works on the beverage factory in Anhui is progressing.

No need to shout so loud.  Mods take note.

[PkNanas]

Back to my rationality, for shrewd businessman of Mr. Prayudth, with his large investment in P80 logan essence and exclusive distributorship to Sino Grandness, is it not easy for Mr. Prayutdh to verify Garden Fresh's marketing reach and distribution network in China?

Investors are naturally skeptical since there were cases of "supposedly" shrewd companies investing in frauds.
Eg.
QAF and China Food
Raffles Education and Oriental Century

Following are my elementary understanding of Sino's history.

Before Prayudh invested in Sino Grandness in December 2014, Newman9 report casting Sino as frauster was already making its round.
It was unlikely that Prayudh was casual then before his investment in Sino Grandness.

Last year, Geoinvesting also cast doubt on Sino. Again, did this not put Prayudh on higher alert? 
Yet he appointed Sino as its sole and exclusive distributor of P80 logan essence in China and HK.

In short, my basis of simple human nature (hopefully), that when there were lots of negative reports, one will be likely to double their due diligence effort. And Mr. Prayth should be more than able to so due his beverage business background.

It is will be a super fraud show if Mr. Prayuh, a shrewd businessman, being conned by someone.
Again, with caveat, never say never, but chances is low in my humble opinion.

[specuvestor]

^^thanks BlueKelah I presume he's hard of reading and I make it a point not to argue with retirees who has more time for questions than there ever be answers

Specuvestor wrote:
"Anhui was supposed to be completed in 1H17 as per the link and it is not for GF drinks."[/

[color=#222222]Garden Fresh is in Anhui.

Page I-31 of Garden Fresh draft prospectus states the following:

"As at 31 December 2015, deposit of RMB 246,800,000..........had been paid to independent third party suppliers for acquisition of production equipments in Anhui Province, PRC............"

Portuser I refer you to their diagram and announcement page 2&3. The structure and purpose is quite clear cut.
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGFI_Res...eID=426912

It is amusing that hubei was partially leased to Grandness (IIRC have volume declines) when they are ramping up GF with CB proceeds and yet at same time procuring 3rd party juice through Shenzhen; now with the rights money going to Anhui Grandness they leasing out part to GF which is facing YoY declines. The logic is fascinating. If I'm GeoInvest I'll be keen to know if the GF equipments in Hubei is still there or has gone to Anhui

Portuser you are a detailed person. How much do you think it cost to set up a canning factory in China? Big bulk of the "cash" already came from GF entity. How much did Hubei cost?

Back to my rationality, for shrewd businessman of Mr. Prayudth, with his large investment in P80 logan essence and exclusive distributorship to Sino Grandness, is it not easy for Mr. Prayutdh to verify Garden Fresh's marketing reach and distribution network in China?

Investors are naturally skeptical since there were cases of "supposedly" shrewd companies investing in frauds.
Eg.
QAF and China Food
Raffles Education and Oriental Century

PkNanas are you aware that the original subscription price by TTA was much higher? Does that mean Mr Prayudth originally almost overpaid? Have you seen the penalty terms of P80? What do you think of the terms?

Is Sam Goi shrewd to step back from the rights?

Do you agree with my assessment in my previous post that Alan Wang is the shrewdest in this episode? Or he is dumb to give up?

If you think about it chronologically and also what GreedandFear says about Pre-IPO deals, you can see the involvement of the bankers and subsequent how they trying to recoup their capital with Prayudth's investment and cash calls through restructuring

Like I said you can count the beans already. I expect them to repay SB2 from the rights they raised but next is how to repay TTA loan come May 2018. (NB I don't follow it that closely recently to remember if EGM approved the convertibility) If it gets converted it's a sign of confidence from Prayudth? One important question I forgot to ask is whether this investment is Prayudth idea or the son's idea

But from a purely capitalistic point of view, one certainly have to salute Huang