The Hour Glass

[dzwm87]

The limitation on this business is on its working capital intensity: you either build your profit from reselling luxury watches and use it to expand your store front or you leverage up by taking on debt to expand. The former is conservative which is what THG is adopting.

Corydorus is right in saying revenue is stagnant. Revenue growth is either through store expansion or getting more customers come into your store, of which both is not happening. Next 1 to 2 years likely to see limited revenue growth. We may see one-off growth from the consolidation of their recent acquisitions while cost-cutting is never perpetual.

Whether one intends to hold it through 5 to 10 years (like what crabrab been advocating) requires one to make a call on luxury watch trend. The good thing about luxury retailing is you will always have a consistent customer base. Materialism is a common trait of human nature.

[crabcrab]

I don't know well enough to comment is good or bad. But with rev stagnant something seems doesn't add up.

By industry standard, THG current performance is already considered as outperformed the market.

[dydx]

Today (24Nov14), THG hit $2.00 and closed at a high of $1.99….
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=E5P....&z=l&q=l&c=
, likely motivated by the proposed 3:1 stock split which has 26Nov14 (coming Wed) set as the Ex-Date.

Using $1.99 as the reference share price, the theoretical ex-stock split share price should be around $0.665.

It is interesting to note that since the proposed 3:1 stock split was first announced on 2Sep14 (THG's closing share price: $1.825), Mr Market has rewarded THG a 9% increase in market valuation.

[brattzz]

I still don't get it,
Anyhow, isn't this sort of manipulation? to get the highest base price for the 1 to 3 stock-spilt?

Time will tell!

[dydx]

I still don't get it,
Anyhow, isn't this sort of manipulation? to get the highest base price for the 1 to 3 stock-spilt?

Time will tell!

I don't think the Tay Family as the controlling shareholder of THG ever dabbled in the company's shares, or ever tried to fix the shares' price level. Being decent, reputable, and wealthy people in the own right, it is reasonable to believe that when the Tay's were considering and decided on the 3:1 stock split, they were motivated by the belief that the THG as a listed company and its shares should be worth more in market value, and by having more shares in the free-float and liquidity, Mr Market would be able to do his usual trick in bringing up the company's market capitalisation towards its justified fair valuation level.

If THG share price stays firm at the theoretical ex-stock split price level - or better still, above that - after tomorrow (26Nov14), I suppose we can then conclude that Mr Market has proven the Tay's right.

[pianist]

for a number times in the AGMs, there were feedback that the stock price didn't move, then tay replied that it was because there are many people like you and me, holding onto the shares, refusing to sell, causing it to be illiquid. now he heard your feedback - stock-split..nice..

[crabcrab]

From the then $1.00 to $2.00.. Then come a 1 for 1 share split & the share price was back to $1.00. Then it slowly climbed near to $2.00 again and come a 1 for 3 share split, and the share theoretical price should be around $0.66 a share.. Maybe, the share price will quickly cback to $2.00 again after share split and then another share split again.. Lets hope the cycle goes on and on for The Hour Glass!!

[hh488]

Hey,

THG is cheaper than Cortina today!

[brattzz]

haha! fundamentally, THG has to continue to grow it's biz to support the price increment lah...

[swn]

Hey,

THG is cheaper than Cortina today!

Ex bonus day!