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(09-02-2014, 11:44 PM)touzi Wrote: If I annualize the latest DPU of 1.61 cts, the yield based on current price of $0.74 is 8.7% ! I find this quite unbelievable. Did I miss out something? Is this high yield because the outlook in Australia not positive? I tend to think that the tourism related industry in Australia should continue to do well. Any views? Thanks.
I just took some SGX trainer's (Roy Ling) word for it in class when he showed the Excel spreadsheet (the one he has is comprehensive and used in industry) and it worked out room cost per key valuation to be around $900k to $1,000k which was on the high side at IPO. So if we discount ~20% for - and I am only thinking about - the Sydney and Clarke Quay locations it seemed profitable enough to purchase (but don't buy too much - it is a yield instrument and I believe highly susceptible to interest rate rises). For some rough idea and comparisons (see Google first page for this metric):
wps.prenhall.com/wps/media/objects/1010/1034988/ch13.ppt
http://www.ocbcresearch.com/pdf_reports/...012%29.pdf
Use different yardsticks of valuation for different things - banks P/B, hotels valuation per key, etc. HVS is unusually good at this:
http://www.hvs.com/
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Sry, I think it was $900 cost per room key (and so coincidentally, IPO ard 90 cents). $1,000 is for FEHT at I believe was it IPO or the share price high? - I think IPO
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10-02-2014, 12:07 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-02-2014, 12:15 PM by AlphaQuant.)
i took a look at this counter just out of curiosity.
DPU record
2Q12 803mio units DPU 1.09 (1.26 with sponsor waiver)
3Q12 803mio units DPU 1.55 (1.77 with sponsor waiver)
4Q12 805mio units DPU 1.68 (1.89 with sponsor waiver)
1Q13 1032mio units DPU 1.29
2Q13 1032mio units DPU 1.41
3Q13 1034mio units DPU 1.61
Some observations:
1) there's decent seasonality involved in the DPU, so a 3Q*4 estimation is not very meaningful.
2) There's an absence of a min lease protection which is present in CDLHT. I looked under the AR13 but fail to see the breakdown in NPI for each of the 10 hotels under management. I find it hard to do any sort of projection into the future without details of each hotel's NPI info. The absence of a min fee (which saved CDLHT during the GFC) makes it hard to calculate any sort of a worst case scenario.
3) the majority of the NPI comes from australia, so the cap rate for australian hospitality should be used as a baseline gauge. However, counters like St****** have a similar profile and are much lesser geared yet throwing up decent dvd yields of ~5% - more importantly these have much better OPMI vs controlling int alignment.
4) The large placement done to purchase Clarke Quay is very much DPU-destructive. I also dislike the higher yield promoted during their IPO promotion days thru the use of "sponsor waiving distribution".
5) The trust as a whole, esp the business trust managing the hotels, seems to be suffering really badly from the FX and all the expenses (stamp duties etc).
So while the ~8% yield looks rather decent, the track record of the manager thus far ( be it the price of the acquisitions, disclosures of information, ability to manage FX risks given the foreign asset profile) has been rather dismal i think.
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(10-02-2014, 12:07 PM)AlphaQuant Wrote: 1) there's decent seasonality involved in the DPU, so a 3Q*4 estimation is not very meaningful.
Thanks for pointing that out. I made the mistake of treating this like a industrial/office reit.
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Pullman Cairns hotel on sales block
THE AUSTRALIAN SEPTEMBER 26, 2014 12:00AM
Lisa Allen
Property & Tourism Reporter
Sydney
THE Pullman Cairns hotel, one of north Queensland’s finest, could be sold with its co-owner — Singapore’s Ascendas Hospitality Fund Management — revealing significant buyer interest in the property.
The 321-room luxury property is jointly owned by the Ascendas Hospitality Trust and wealthy Sydney-based property investor Robert Magid, through his private investment vehicle, Melic.
According to a statement to the Singapore stock exchange both Melic and the Ascendas Hospitality Trust are in discussions with several parties on the potential sale of the hotel.
“This is part of (the trust’s) active asset management strategy under which the managers would consider whether assets are ready for divestment to free up or recycle capital for more productive use,” the statement said.
However, the trust said discussions over the sale were preliminary and non-binding.
Local real estate agents said the hotel, which has previously been on the market, was worth about $60 million. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels has previously tried to sell the property.
Mr Magid could not be reached for comment.
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http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companie...-127-cents
A-HTrust posts 9.9% fall in Q2 DPS to 1.27 cents
By
Jamie Lee leejamie@sph.com.sg@JamieLeeBT
7 Nov5:50 AM
Singapore
ASCENDAS Hospitality Trust on Thursday posted a 9.9 per cent dip in distribution per share (DPS) for its fiscal second quarter, due to a dip in distributable income that came from an unwinding of forex derivatives.
The trust said that DPS for the three months ended Sept
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What are the differences between hotels in which you hold the master leases vs hotel under management contract, in terms of rent mechanism, costs, depreciation, capex, etc.?
also what are the disadvantages of hotel under management because I can only think of the benefits such as much higher margin, asset light (hence higher ROIC and ROA), lower depreciation, lower capex, higher cash flow, etc.
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also another question is,
am I right to say that this company has done 2x private placement since IPO in 2012? private placement means only select investors can participate, which means these exercises have diluted the minority shareholders?
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Robert Magid sells Cairns hotel for $75m as buyers swarm
THE AUSTRALIAN MAY 16, 2015 12:00AM
Lisa Allen
Property & Tourism Reporter
Sydney
Ben Wilmot
Commercial Property Editor
Sydney
Magid sells Cairns hotel for $75m
The five-star Pullman International Hotel in Cairns is said to need a $15m upgrade. Picture: Brendan Radke. Source: News Corp Australia
Sydney investor Robert Magid and his one-time Singaporean partner Ascendas Hospitality Trust have finally offloaded their Cairns hotel in a deal worth $75.08 million, with a syndicate assembled by Yong Quek’s little-known Shakespeare Property Group emerging as the buyer yesterday.
The group pipped a play for the city’s Pullman by David Chiu, a billionaire Hong Kong tycoon and chairman of Far East Consortium, who was bidding for the 321-room property in a joint venture with China Travel Service, one of China’s largest inbound tour operators.
Last year, Hong Kong gaming tsar Tony Fung made a move on the property, but he has since turned his attention to the Gold Coast, where he is buying the Sheraton Mirage for $160m, with plans to turn it into a luxury casino resort.
In a sign of the rising values across the commercial property market, Mr Magid yesterday flagged he would sell more assets, including a Sydney office block worth at least $60m and a South Sydney residential site valued at about $45m because the market is running so hot.
“We are selling because people are desperate to buy,” said Mr Magid, stressing that he would retain his three boutique hotels in Sydney and Melbourne.
“We are building a war chest, but we will not rush into buying anything. The market is so hot, people keep calling us asking us to sell assets, the price is higher each time (they call),” he said.
In Cairns, Mr Magid’s TMG Developments and the Ascendas Hospitality Trust have been keen to offload the Pullman Cairns International for some time.
The hotel was originally purchased from Japanese giant Daikyo in 2005 in a deal between TMG and Mirvac Hotels. However, in 2012 Ascendas bought Mirvac’s hotel portfolio picking up the Pullman Cairns International as part of the deal.
Mr Magid said he wanted to sell Cairns because of the considerable interest in the North Queensland city’s hospitality market while Ascendas said in a statement did not meet its investment criteria. The hotel needs an upgrade of at least $15m and operators are sizing it up for a revamp.
Both TMG and Ascendas stressed the sale price was about $8.1m above the hotel’s last value of $67m in late March. With the deal effectively rerating hotel values in the region, more properties are tipped to change hands. Mark Durran of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels brokered the Pullman deal and said hotels were trading strongly due to growing Chinese tourism.
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