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(06-04-2013, 03:01 PM)KopiKat Wrote: (06-04-2013, 02:34 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: It is about $892k per key for Park Hotel.
Using CDL hotel 2011 valuation,
Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel is about $610k per key
Novotel Singapore Clarke Quay is about $734k per key
Even Orchard Hotel is only about $768k per key.
Even though park hotel has a longer lease, the price was still pretty high.
How about dividing your figures by the no. of years of balance lease and see what kind of figures you'll get ? Can use latest 2012 Valuations here.
After normalizing with the lease,
Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel is about $8840 per key per year
Novotel Singapore Clarke Quay is about $11786 per key per year
Even Orchard Hotel is only about $10030 per key per year
For park hotel, it is around $9600 per key per year.
For the CDL hotels, they have quite enormous car parks. Not sure whether the car parks are included into the valuation.
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06-04-2013, 05:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2013, 06:35 PM by KopiKat.)
(06-04-2013, 05:33 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: (06-04-2013, 03:01 PM)KopiKat Wrote: (06-04-2013, 02:34 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: It is about $892k per key for Park Hotel.
Using CDL hotel 2011 valuation,
Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel is about $610k per key
Novotel Singapore Clarke Quay is about $734k per key
Even Orchard Hotel is only about $768k per key.
Even though park hotel has a longer lease, the price was still pretty high.
How about dividing your figures by the no. of years of balance lease and see what kind of figures you'll get ? Can use latest 2012 Valuations here.
After normalizing with the lease,
Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel is about $8840 per key per year
Novotel Singapore Clarke Quay is about $11786 per key per year
Even Orchard Hotel is only about $10030 per key per year
For park hotel, it is around $9600 per key per year.
For the CDL hotels, they have quite enormous car parks. Not sure whether the car parks are included into the valuation.
Thx! The figures doesn't look too bad after all...
But, I was also looking at Novotel Singapore Clarke Quay as they're both in the same locale. From pg 7, Novotel has 1217sq m of function/meeting space + 6 F&B outlets vs Park Hotel 167 sq m & 2 F&B. I supposed Novotel is better geared towards Business guests, who're likely to spend more freely on company expenses. Therefore, a higher valuation, using your methodology? 
For such a huge acquisition, I'm guessing they won't be doing a Private Placement (didn't check if they have such a huge mandate, even if 1/3 in debts). With such a high premium over NAV (~30%), it'd make sense to do a Rights Issue, perhaps 2-for-5 at 5-10% discount to market price (assuming it doesn't drop on Monday). However, if that doesn't result in yield accretion, then, they'll need to use at least 1/3 in debt funding and perhaps a smaller 1-for-4 Rights Issue. Depends on their Financial Engineering.... 
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You have raised a very interesting observation - Aberdeen as a long term value manager is buying.
Frankly after so many mega delistings and takeover, fund managers with Singapore mandate is finding it very tough to invest in the Singapore universe.
Hence we have seen many stocks that are traditionally illiquid but has value characteristics being chased up. We need not look very far from VB's universe and the phenomenon has happened only since 6 - 9 months ago when these delistings and takeovers have taken place.
Perhaps even the actual property market is a beneficiary of these takeovers / delistings on top of the freely available crisis targeted monies.
GG
(06-04-2013, 11:44 AM)Contrarian Wrote: Amazing that even at current prices Aberdeen is accumulating. Either they see a structural pattern that I dont see...
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03-05-2013, 06:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2013, 07:24 PM by KopiKat.)
Finally... what we'd been waiting for...
PRO FORMA FINANCIAL EFFECTS OF THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION OF PARK HOTEL CLARKE QUAY
If I read correctly, looks like not yield accretive, only NAV accretive. Didn't see them using TERP for their scenario computation either... 
Today, I chickened out and sold most of my holdings (as last day cd), left a few lots to join the fun.
Presentations posted at SGX Annc,
Proposed Acquisition of Park Hotel Clarke Quay
Pg 6 is on Funding Structure but still not determined yet.
<Divested - Won't be posting much from now>
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LAUNCH OF EQUITY FUND RAISING TO RAISE NO LESS THAN S$200.0 MILLION TO PARTIALLY FUND THE ACQUISITION OF PARK HOTEL CLARKE QUAY
Some extracts,
(i) private placement of 161,947,000 New Stapled Securities at an issue price of between S$0.885 and S$0.915
(ii) a pro-rata and non-renounceable preferential offering of 64,405,625 New Stapled Securities on the basis of 2 New Stapled Securities for every 25 existing stapled securities in A-HTRUST at an issue price of between S$0.880 and S$0.905
....the Managers intend to declare an advance distribution for the period from 1 April 2013 to the day immediately prior to the date on which the New Stapled Securities are issued pursuant to the Private Placement (the “Advance Distribution”). The Advance Distribution is estimated to range from 0.95 cents to 0.99 cents....
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I can almost hear the skeptic saying "See see. Barely listed, give 1 distribution and now its asking unitholders for more money'
*tsk tsk*
(Not vested)
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30-05-2013, 08:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 30-05-2013, 08:21 PM by AlphaQuant.)
(30-05-2013, 07:01 PM)lonewolf Wrote: I can almost hear the skeptic saying "See see. Barely listed, give 1 distribution and now its asking unitholders for more money'
*tsk tsk*
(Not vested)
what is quite interesting is that the PO+rights are indicatively priced between 0.88-0.915 - the price of AH-REIT was 0.90 before the halt - and with the selloff, the PO+rights could be at a premium to mother when the halt is lifted. That will be pretty rough for the unitholders...
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My temperament is such i "hate" rights issue which are for private placement and non-renounceable. i never like to being "forced" to do anything. If the offer is so "good", let the market decides.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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Its a FUN Manager stock - better stick to real asset owners at this stage of the market cycle as FUN Managers will pay huge prices to unlock value of asset owners as long as they get way with fund raising...
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(30-05-2013, 07:01 PM)lonewolf Wrote: I can almost hear the skeptic saying "See see. Barely listed, give 1 distribution and now its asking unitholders for more money'
*tsk tsk*
(Not vested)
Let's go *tsk tsk* FE-HTrust also as they were listed 1mth after A-HTrust but is going to beat them to an acquisition... I suppose it's a lesser evil that they're funding it with issue of new shares (to FEO & STC) + debts ie. existing unitholders need not come up with more money...??
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