Singapore Press Holdings (SPH)

[CityFarmer]

paragon - 2.6bil value
clementi -300mil value
cash and short term investment - 1 bil value
long term investment -443 mil (i didnt know the break down)
10 years of newspaper and magainzes - 2600mil
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liabilities 1.6 bil
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estimated value - 5.3 bil
outstanding shares - 1.6 bil
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estimated value per share - $3.33

hope my off hand values are close

Base on the latest valuation which is on Aug 2011, the paragon is 2.3 Bil and Clementi Mall is 60% of 590 Mils = 354 Mils

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

How do you get "10 years of newspaper and magainzes - 2600mil"? By DCF?

My estimation is S$4.1-S4.2, but i might be wrong.

[Drizzt]

i based on any cash, subsidiaries, the retail assets prevailing value.

for the newspaper and magazine, the true value could be how much cashflow the assets can generate. in that case its the present value of 340 mil for 10 years with a rough 6% discount rate.

[KopiKat]

Closed @ $3.94, +4ct. STI = 2986.59, -5.53

No matter how many times I've seen it, I continue to be amazed by people's willingness to pay a lot more cents to buy SPH during the twice a year dividend periods. The rest of the time, they must be fearfully waiting for the newspaper biz to drop to zero circulation.

Yes, $3.9x region now, will patiently wait to to see when (whether) to sell, before xd date. STI, give me a sign...

[Temperament]

i am selling bit by bit @ any price $3.97 and above. Never mind, i make less. Can always buy back ma, before Christmas. NO? i sold 1 batch @ 3.89 sometimes ago. Who knew then Market heads North so fast instead of South.

[brattzz]

for info, SPH has hit the "sell" price for part-timers blue chip traders..
sold mine liao, 7++% yield in pocket for 2012, be safe, not sorry... hope to collect more after XD at "buy" price and repeat for Nov 2012!
hopefully can hit 14% yield!

Mr Market is weird!

[KopiKat]

for info, SPH has hit the "sell" price for part-timers blue chip traders..
sold mine liao, 7++% yield in pocket for 2012, be safe, not sorry... hope to collect more after XD at "buy" price and repeat for Nov 2012!
hopefully can hit 14% yield!

Mr Market is weird!

As xd is on 7-May and market appear not as fearful, we have the luxury of 2 weeks to play with.

If we take a closer look at their latest figures, I'm proposing that we classify SPH as a Low Growth Stock (promote from No Growth) with effect from Feb-12 quarter. This will only last for 1 year max.

My justification - Clementi Mall full contribution just started ie. On a y-o-y basis, I see a Revenue Growth of 4% and Net Profit Growth of 16%. This is likely Net of +ve contribution from Exhibitions and -ve ones from declining Core Paper biz. The chances of y-on-y growth for the next 3 Quarters are high.

As such, I'm proposing we shift the Buy-Sell Band accordingly. A 4% (let's be conservative and use Revenue Growth rather than Net Profit Growth) shift means $3.6x/$3.9x becomes $3.7x/$4.0x (we'll also watch the next Quarter results closely to tweak this if required). This will of course be negated if STI should drop by 10% (I anyhow pluck from the air). In such an event, we'll have to gaze at the crystal ball to come up with a new band.

[brattzz]

ok noted!

when market is buying, sell... when market is selling, buy...

[KopiKat]

As xd is on 7-May and market appear not as fearful, we have the luxury of 2 weeks to play with.

If we take a closer look at their latest figures, I'm proposing that we classify SPH as a Low Growth Stock (promote from No Growth) with effect from Feb-12 quarter. This will only last for 1 year max.

My justification - Clementi Mall full contribution just started ie. On a y-o-y basis, I see a Revenue Growth of 4% and Net Profit Growth of 16%. This is likely Net of +ve contribution from Exhibitions and -ve ones from declining Core Paper biz. The chances of y-on-y growth for the next 3 Quarters are high.

As such, I'm proposing we shift the Buy-Sell Band accordingly. A 4% (let's be conservative and use Revenue Growth rather than Net Profit Growth) shift means $3.6x/$3.9x becomes $3.7x/$4.0x (we'll also watch the next Quarter results closely to tweak this if required). This will of course be negated if STI should drop by 10% (I anyhow pluck from the air). In such an event, we'll have to gaze at the crystal ball to come up with a new band.

The other thing is, when I first described this possible 'sell-before-xd' approach for 'die-die-must-have' shareholders of SPH many, many pages back, one pre-condition was, 'there must be fear in the market'. Today, I don't see that 'fear' in the market, as compared to the previous xd on 8-Dec-11. This means there's a very high chance that come xd, it may not 'over-react' and drop a lot more than the Div = 7ct this time round. At most, maybe 2-3ct more? ie. may not be worth the 2-way transaction charges involved for the die-hard SPH supporter. So, I may not sell mine unless it goes up a lot more... Getting greedy.. Hee.. Danger signs...

[KopiKat]

See.. that's what happens when I get greedy. Ended up closing today -7ct ie. xd price!

[brattzz]

well... if u bet based on sentiments.... sometimes it happens lah...

SPH continues to be one of the stable dividends counter, will collect after XD..