Popular Holdings

[orang]

I guess this conclusion may be based on SGX Annc dated 7-Sep-11,

Wayne Chou
Cessation as Managing Director of the Company and re-designation from Executive Director to Non-Executive Director of the Company to pursue his other personal interests

or if you prefer a more juicy version from asiaone,

Sources told the paper that the fallout was a long time coming. According to the source, the younger Mr Chou did not get along with the older members of staff who were hired by his father, and started hiring staff of his own.

Allegedly, the dissatisfaction became apparent during the appraisal season last year, with three members of its senior staff resigning soon after.

An industry player who declined to be named told The Sunday Times: 'I knew Wayne when he took over as managing director, and he has always been very professional,' he said. 'But father-and-son relationships are always complicated.'


How things changed within a short span of 1yr+. From AR2010 (pg7),

2010 marks an important milestone in the history of POPULAR. The functions of Chairman and Managing Director are separated with the appointment of Wayne Chou as Managing Director. Assuming an executive role, Wayne Chou will take on the CEO role in phases. Wayne’s management experience and exposure in media and related industries will add to our talent pool. It will generate dynamism, raise energy level and build new capabilities.


My take is that it's not easy to work under Old Man. Most likely, he works 24/7 and expects his snr mgmt staff (esp. his son) to follow his way. See how often they change their CFO (every 1-2yrs). BUT, I don't see it as the son being not interested in running Popular's biz...

So, it is not improbable that not only is the son interested in the business he wants to be in the driver's seat.

Maybe a look at some movements can tell us something.

1) October 2009 - Ponch Poon joins as CEO of Greater China

2) March 2010 - Wayne Chou re-designated as Executive director and appointed Managing Director

3) December 2010 - Khang Swee Cheng, Executive Director responsible for Singapore operations, retires

3a) in place Ponch Poon appointed Eexcutive Director

4) September 2011 Wayne Chou quit as Executive Director and reverts to Non-Executive Director

Why did Khang Swee Cheng retire?

She does not look a day older than 40.

[KopiKat]

So, it is not improbable that not only is the son interested in the business he wants to be in the driver's seat.

Yup! My guess is he wants to drive at the speed of a Ferarri but Old Man was likely planning to allow him to drive at a much lower speed limit.

Fm AR2010,
Wayne Chou will take on the CEO role in phases

---

Notable trade today,

10:24:57 0.220 20,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 50,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 50,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 10,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 50,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 30,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 10,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 100,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 20,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 30,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 20,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 30,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 9,000 Buy Up
10:24:57 0.220 11,000 Buy Up

See the same time? Total 440lots @ $0.22 at one go... Guess who?? Not me, I have enough to keep me awake at night for now...

[Mr Nobody]

funds buying?

if you have 100 lots, every 1 cent up is $1k richer. The reverse is also true. How many $k swing is required to keep you awake?

[KopiKat]

funds buying?

if you have 100 lots, every 1 cent up is $1k richer. The reverse is also true. How many $k swing is required to keep you awake?

If I don't see an SGX Annc by Monday (Old Man does follow SGX guidelines quite promptly), then yes, it's either Funds or Traders or Investors.

In my case, what keeps me awake is a function of 'How much I'd invested' and the 'Fundamentals of the stock'. So, for a stock which I deem to be high risk, even if I'd only put in a small amount of $$, it may keep me awake at night easily. However, for a fundamentally strong one, it takes a lot more $$ invested to keep me awake. So, rule of thumb, which I learnt from the gurus of this forum previously in another lifetime (in Wallstraits forum),

Invest to Your Own Level of Losing Sleep

So, yes, for Popular Hldgs, I have already reached my comfort zone (for now). How much is that? Well, after all those time and effort to dig up all those info and analysis with the help of others in this thread,...it's definitely huge enough for this small-timer here to continue to spend so much time here...

[Mr Nobody]

I think the recent price rise should worry, rather than excite.

The one reason is the Old Man is buying and people assume that his price will become the new support and start digging out all sort of "facts" why it is a great company. To the Old Man, if price drops back to 15 cents, it is ok, no pain at all. Are we ok, if we buy at 19.5 cents or higher?

What has/have changed? Have business conditions become so conducive? In Malaysia, has the demand for books and stationary gone up by 30% and Popular is gaining market share?

Don't tell me old man is looking for a good exit, to enjoy a good retirement?

[KopiKat]

I think the recent price rise should worry, rather than excite.

The one reason is the Old Man is buying and people assume that his price will become the new support and start digging out all sort of "facts" why it is a great company. To the Old Man, if price drops back to 15 cents, it is ok, no pain at all. Are we ok, if we buy at 19.5 cents or higher?

What has/have changed? Have business conditions become so conducive? In Malaysia, has the demand for books and stationary gone up by 30% and Popular is gaining market share?

Don't tell me old man is looking for a good exit, to enjoy a good retirement?

Ah... yes, a timely reminder and warning to those who'd not been doing their own due diligence!

I gave a lot of thots to this post and yes, I shamefully admit I'm the main culprit for providing 'misleading' info, especially to any casual readers who'd not bothered to check and do their own analysis.

A Thousand Apologies to All..

Still, let me go thro' the points brought up,

1) Share Price SUPPORTED by Old Man - I started posting in jest, whenever Old man did any share purchase, using this TA lingo. I was still unable to understand what was driving Popular Hldgs' profit growth for the last couple of years and my thinking at that point in time was that any Buys by Old Man was in fact, helping to support the share price. But, yes, if he were to stop buying, the share price has a very high probability of dropping back.

The last time I used the term 'SUPPORT' was for his buy @ 19.9ct on 29-May. That was before Popular Hldgs released their FY12 results on 29-Jun. With the good set of results, I'd stopped using the term 'SUPPORT' as now, I'd become FEARFUL that Old Man will cause share price to go up too fast as IMO, it was now undervalued.

2) Start Digging Out All Sort of "Facts" Why it is a Great Company - Hmm... is that so? Most of the time, we were wondering what was driving the profitability growth of the company. We looked at 'Properties' and sad to say, it wasn't the 'culprit'. In fact, there was a humongous write-down some years back which swing them into a loss for FY09. This amount was written back in FY10 and FY11, contributing to some of the so-called growth in profitability. 'orang' kindly shared his figures for OM (removing the Other Income) and hey! something else seems to be driving the profit growth!

We looked at their new concept store 'Prologue' + cafeteria 'Epilogue'. I even looked at 'UrbanWrite'. Go back and read those posts. If anything, I was rather skeptical that it'll make $$. To put it bluntly, chances of losing $$ is very high.

The break through (for me), with good probing questions from 'orang' was the realisation that the profit growth was coming from their Malaysia operations.

So, perhaps that final part is contributing to the opinion that some of us had 'start digging out all sort of "facts" why it is a great company'. Note that at no point in time, I'd used the term that it's a Great Company. Neither do I believe that it is now a Great Company as their NPM is still very very low by my usual yardstick and I do agree that they are in a sunset industry. At most, I do believe that there's one last long puff here to be enjoyed...

3) "In Malaysia, has the demand for books and stationary gone up by 30% and Popular is gaining market share?" - Ah.. that was the million $$ question I was asking myself after (2). A quick check from AR and their website pointed to the most likely reason that it's due to their opening of more stores in Malaysia. As to whether it's due to growth in demand or market share, that's something for us to confirm (also stated in our posts). However, looking at Malaysia demographics and comparing comservatively with Singapore, my current best guess is likely a gaining of market share by opening new stores and being more organised than a market that's very likely fragmented in nature (my guess only, not verified).

4) old man is looking for a good exit, to enjoy a good retirement? - That's something we'd spent some time speculating.. Only time will tell. I'd posted quite a bit on this but hidden amongst all those posts is a conclusion I currently think is most likely. Am not going to share that as it's based mainly on my own wild imaginations and perhaps strong vested interest and bias. If and when that do happen, I'll do a more detailed post...

Lastly, I'd put Popular Hldgs in my 'Cold Storage' as per what I'd posted in one of my recent posts. I won't be very active in this thread henceforth unless there're any new developments. At most, post on any new Old Man purchase without any wise-crack comments that may be misconstrued as something else. Main reason is I think I'd done enough homework to be able to sleep soundly with my current stake and I need to focus on some of the new stocks I'd become vested recently.

[orang]

I think the recent price rise should worry, rather than excite.

The one reason is the Old Man is buying and people assume that his price will become the new support and start digging out all sort of "facts" why it is a great company. To the Old Man, if price drops back to 15 cents, it is ok, no pain at all. Are we ok, if we buy at 19.5 cents or higher?

What has/have changed? Have business conditions become so conducive? In Malaysia, has the demand for books and stationary gone up by 30% and Popular is gaining market share?

Don't tell me old man is looking for a good exit, to enjoy a good retirement?

Ah... yes, a timely reminder and warning to those who'd not been doing their own due diligence!

I gave a lot of thots to this post and yes, I shamefully admit I'm the main culprit for providing 'misleading' info, especially to any casual readers who'd not bothered to check and do their own analysis.

A Thousand Apologies to All..

Still, let me go thro' the points brought up,

1) Share Price SUPPORTED by Old Man - I started posting in jest, whenever Old man did any share purchase, using this TA lingo. I was still unable to understand what was driving Popular Hldgs' profit growth for the last couple of years and my thinking at that point in time was that any Buys by Old Man was in fact, helping to support the share price. But, yes, if he were to stop buying, the share price has a very high probability of dropping back.

The last time I used the term 'SUPPORT' was for his buy @ 19.9ct on 29-May. That was before Popular Hldgs released their FY12 results on 29-Jun. With the good set of results, I'd stopped using the term 'SUPPORT' as now, I'd become FEARFUL that Old Man will cause share price to go up too fast as IMO, it was now undervalued.

2) Start Digging Out All Sort of "Facts" Why it is a Great Company - Hmm... is that so? Most of the time, we were wondering what was driving the profitability growth of the company. We looked at 'Properties' and sad to say, it wasn't the 'culprit'. In fact, there was a humongous write-down some years back which swing them into a loss for FY09. This amount was written back in FY10 and FY11, contributing to some of the so-called growth in profitability. 'orang' kindly shared his figures for OM (removing the Other Income) and hey! something else seems to be driving the profit growth!

We looked at their new concept store 'Prologue' + cafeteria 'Epilogue'. I even looked at 'UrbanWrite'. Go back and read those posts. If anything, I was rather skeptical that it'll make $$. To put it bluntly, chances of losing $$ is very high.

The break through (for me), with good probing questions from 'orang' was the realisation that the profit growth was coming from their Malaysia operations.

So, perhaps that final part is contributing to the opinion that some of us had 'start digging out all sort of "facts" why it is a great company'. Note that at no point in time, I'd used the term that it's a Great Company. Neither do I believe that it is now a Great Company as their NPM is still very very low by my usual yardstick and I do agree that they are in a sunset industry. At most, I do believe that there's one last long puff here to be enjoyed...

3) "In Malaysia, has the demand for books and stationary gone up by 30% and Popular is gaining market share?" - Ah.. that was the million $$ question I was asking myself after (2). A quick check from AR and their website pointed to the most likely reason that it's due to their opening of more stores in Malaysia. As to whether it's due to growth in demand or market share, that's something for us to confirm (also stated in our posts). However, looking at Malaysia demographics and comparing comservatively with Singapore, my current best guess is likely a gaining of market share by opening new stores and being more organised than a market that's very likely fragmented in nature (my guess only, not verified).

4) old man is looking for a good exit, to enjoy a good retirement? - That's something we'd spent some time speculating.. Only time will tell. I'd posted quite a bit on this but hidden amongst all those posts is a conclusion I currently think is most likely. Am not going to share that as it's based mainly on my own wild imaginations and perhaps strong vested interest and bias. If and when that do happen, I'll do a more detailed post...

Lastly, I'd put Popular Hldgs in my 'Cold Storage' as per what I'd posted in one of my recent posts. I won't be very active in this thread henceforth unless there're any new developments. At most, post on any new Old Man purchase without any wise-crack comments that may be misconstrued as something else. Main reason is I think I'd done enough homework to be able to sleep soundly with my current stake and I need to focus on some of the new stocks I'd become vested recently.

Hi Kopikat,

There is no need to justify yourself. But the scurrilous remarks do hurt. I understand why you did what you did.

Since you did I thank you as in some ways I am part of this unwarranted attenton

Actually I do feel your hurt also but I have been in this game for more than 40 years, long enough to know what to ignore.

Coming here is only a distraction. However it is because of your honesty and integrity that I continue to engage you on this thread.

Allow me to quote here:-

"Can you really explain to a fish what it's like to walk on land? One day on land is worth a thousand years of talking about it and one day running a business has exactly the same value."

You can pm me or email me since we are two fishes who can walk on land..Haha

[yeokiwi]

Like that one lah, after a while, probably you will not share your thought. Share liao kanna suan.
Very sian......
But you will get used to it. Haha...
Anyway, I am always excited by rising share price and worry about dropping share price. But, maybe I am different, so most of u are the other way one ah?

[lonewolf]

4) old man is looking for a good exit, to enjoy a good retirement? -

That's something we'd spent some time speculating.. Only time will tell. I'd posted quite a bit on this but hidden amongst all those posts is a conclusion I currently think is most likely. Am not going to share that as it's based mainly on my own wild imaginations and perhaps strong vested interest and bias. If and when that do happen, I'll do a more detailed post...

Let me see if my imaginations are as wild as yours.

The only reasons I can think of for any substantial shareholder to continue buying shares are (1) they think Mr. Market is under-valuing the shares; (2) to provide some support; (3) precursor to eventual privatisation.

And this is where the wild imagination comes in. Maybe the Old Man already has someone lined up to buy his shares and he is acquiring more shares now so that it will be easier for the eventual purchaser to take the company private.

[karlmarx]

Still undervalued by a large margin. The higher share price reflects the improving quarterly results. P/e and p/b still far from its historical high. A fair privatisation offer should value the company at around $400mil. It is a shame that popular's price did not weaken during the recent volatile market.