Popular Holdings

[yeokiwi]

The result is good.
But, the cash holding is kind of too high isn't it?
17cts per share.
or rather 75 million in fixed deposit and 70 million in cash and bank balance????
This huge deposit is only earning a $1.075 million or 0.7% interest rate.

At least, I do not see why they cannot increase the dividend payout to 50% of the profit from retail/distribution and publishing/elearning.

Or maybe I am too greedy?

So much money, must share share with us mah..
or at least give some good bonus to your hardworking staffs.

[orang]

- Looks like no new units were sold in Q412 for 'Property Development' as the Segment Revenue figures was the same for Q3 & Q4. I think there's a high chance of write-down in the coming Quarters if this persist...

Nevertheless, a good set of results!

pls excuse my ignorance. why is there a need for writedown for unsold properties? would it just be part of the current assets of the balance sheet?

My thinking is assuming they really have a problem selling their units, they'll have to lower their prices (if they badly want to clear it due to the govt cooling measures introduced some time back). In such a case, they'll likely have to do some write-down. Right? Something like what happened to some of the Property cos. eg. SC Global?

What kind of writedowns...in numbers? Surely not near that humonguous $28m in FY2009

A property ignoramus I am lost as how these things work out. In the BS there is an amount of $15.288m worth of AFS property. Three units of Shelford left?

[KopiKat]

- Looks like no new units were sold in Q412 for 'Property Development' as the Segment Revenue figures was the same for Q3 & Q4. I think there's a high chance of write-down in the coming Quarters if this persist...

Nevertheless, a good set of results!

pls excuse my ignorance. why is there a need for writedown for unsold properties? would it just be part of the current assets of the balance sheet?

My thinking is assuming they really have a problem selling their units, they'll have to lower their prices (if they badly want to clear it due to the govt cooling measures introduced some time back). In such a case, they'll likely have to do some write-down. Right? Something like what happened to some of the Property cos. eg. SC Global?

What kind of writedowns...in numbers? Surely not near that humonguous $28m in FY2009

A property ignoramus I am lost as how these things work out. In the BS there is an amount of $15.288m worth of AFS property. Three units of Shelford left?

Sorry, I'm equally ignorant on property matters...

From Popular Land website, they only mentioned a few units left of Shelford, not sure how many. If really keen, can either call to ask or back count from their financial reports. From propertyguru listing, the prices range from $2M to $9M. But yes, for Shelford, even if they write off the entire $15.288m (which is unlikely), it'll still not match the $28m in FY09 (which was thankfully written back).

The greater potential problem (if any) may be 8Raja, which is being launched now and has 26 units. I guess we'll have to see the next few Qs results and analyse the segmentals to see if they need to do any write-downs and especially if 8Raja sells well and at what price + P/L. Keeps my fingers cross!

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So much money, must share share with us mah..
or at least give some good bonus to your hardworking staffs.

I fully agree with the 1st part but am not so sure for the 2nd part (as I didn't check whether the staff are amply rewarded). It's also rare in this forum that anyone would even be bringing up this point. You working there isit isit? Or someone close?

Perhaps they're reserving the cash to bid for a bigger plot of land for their next project?

[buddy]

Popular still offers good value. At todays price of 20.5 cents its market cap is S $172 m. As of the latest results it has long term liabilities of 18 mn $. So market is valuing this company at 190 mn $.

Against this they have cash of 145 mn $. I assume 100 mn $ cash is excess & 45 mn $ is required for the business. They have property in their books held for developments worth 82 mn $. Lets for argument sake write off by 15% - so they are worth 70 mn $. Hence one can say one is valuing Retailing & Publishing Business for 20 mn $. This business last year generated Free Cash flow of 30-35 mn $. Publishing & Retailing business which is so called dying business - last year grew revenues by 11% & yet market is not even valuing it at 1x.

* Vested

[karlmarx]

It is difficult to say with certainty whether we'll still be reading books and writings with pens, in the next ten years. Or twenty years. When, if ever, will they be made obsolete?

Holding so much cash, I'm pretty sure they have planned to use it for the purchase of more land and development. I have never thought it was a good idea for them to develop properties, and I'm sure many here feel the same. One wrong move could cripple them, again.

[buddy]

It is difficult to say with certainty whether we'll still be reading books and writings with pens, in the next ten years. Or twenty years. When, if ever, will they be made obsolete?

Holding so much cash, I'm pretty sure they have planned to use it for the purchase of more land and development. I have never thought it was a good idea for them to develop properties, and I'm sure many here feel the same. One wrong move could cripple them, again.

[paullow]

So much cash also not useful if father n son on bitter terms. Father getting old. in end, some outsider will come n makan it.

[KopiKat]

So much cash also not useful if father n son on bitter terms. Father getting old. in end, some outsider will come n makan it.

Pls share with us how that'll happen. If and when that happens, what'll be the impact to the share price? Go up like some of those SuperBowl family ones? If so, grab now??

AFAIK, there're no greedy umpteen wives / mistresses with umpteen kids around waiting to fight over control in order to get a bigger piece of inheritence. This is usually how an outsider predator can easily swop in to gain control of Family controlled biz.

AFAIK, there's only 1 wife and 2 kids (son Wayne + daughter Lynn, a housewife). The holding co. for his Popular Hldg shares is World Holdings and the Shareholders are Mr Chou (177 shares) + Wayne Chou (1 share) - you can find this info in Popular AR. The Directors are Mr Chou, Wayne + wife.

Yes, anything is possible.. but, I'm not expecting to see dirty laundry being washed in public and I'm not expecting to see any headline news in the Chinese evening dailies any time soon, should Old Man decide to bid us farewell..

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I have never thought it was a good idea for them to develop properties, and I'm sure many here feel the same. One wrong move could cripple them, again.

Fully agree..

On the bright side, at least they appear to be not overly aggressive. Each project are so far <50 units (?) and they're done to have a slight overlap between projects.

If they need to go into Properties, I wish they'd go into Malls (instead of condo) as it'd be a good hedge against rising rents!

[orang]

- Looks like no new units were sold in Q412 for 'Property Development' as the Segment Revenue figures was the same for Q3 & Q4. I think there's a high chance of write-down in the coming Quarters if this persist...

Nevertheless, a good set of results!

pls excuse my ignorance. why is there a need for writedown for unsold properties? would it just be part of the current assets of the balance sheet?

My thinking is assuming they really have a problem selling their units, they'll have to lower their prices (if they badly want to clear it due to the govt cooling measures introduced some time back). In such a case, they'll likely have to do some write-down. Right? Something like what happened to some of the Property cos. eg. SC Global?

What kind of writedowns...in numbers? Surely not near that humonguous $28m in FY2009

A property ignoramus I am lost as how these things work out. In the BS there is an amount of $15.288m worth of AFS property. Three units of Shelford left?

Sorry, I'm equally ignorant on property matters...

From Popular Land website, they only mentioned a few units left of Shelford, not sure how many. If really keen, can either call to ask or back count from their financial reports. From propertyguru listing, the prices range from $2M to $9M. But yes, for Shelford, even if they write off the entire $15.288m (which is unlikely), it'll still not match the $28m in FY09 (which was thankfully written back).

The greater potential problem (if any) may be 8Raja, which is being launched now and has 26 units. I guess we'll have to see the next few Qs results and analyse the segmentals to see if they need to do any write-downs and especially if 8Raja sells well and at what price + P/L. Keeps my fingers cross!

---

An excerpt from the old man in AR2009:

"We are re-visiting the design of our third project at 8 Raja to ensure that the construction costs commensurate with market receptivity. At the end of the day, we want Popular Land to thrive, prosper and become yet another core business of POPULAR"

This was in the year of that huge $28m writedown. Perhaps when viewed as part of the steep learning curve delving into property it may somewhat help you to uncross your fingers

[KopiKat]

The CFO @ Popular Hldgs seems to have an average lifespan of 1-2 years. Yet another one just resigned after almost 1 year on the job. Perhaps 'yeokiwi' is right, lots of hard work and not amply rewarded!

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An excerpt from the old man in AR2009:

"We are re-visiting the design of our third project at 8 Raja to ensure that the construction costs commensurate with market receptivity. At the end of the day, we want Popular Land to thrive, prosper and become yet another core business of POPULAR"

This was in the year of that huge $28m writedown. Perhaps when viewed as part of the steep learning curve delving into property it may somewhat help you to uncross your fingers

Thx! But my itchy fingers came uncrossed by itself and tapped in some buys for the past 2 days. Don't ask me why...