War in Ukraine

[Ben]

A month into the war, and Russia has failed to capture any major city in Ukraine. This war has certainly defied all predictions. Few expect the war will actually happen, but it did. Few believe that Ukraine will survive beyond a week, yet she is still standing tall now.

This war has also united the West in ways that has never happen before, and their economy sanction on Russia is going to have a catastrophic consequence on Russia for a long time. Meanwhile, how long can Russia sustain this war, with an estimated price tag of Euro 20 billion a day?

https://www.consultancy.eu/news/7433/res...on-per-day

Putin gravely miscalculated this time and certainly, he and his country is the biggest loser. Will an insane Putin do insane thing out of desperation to win?

[specuvestor]

The best description of Putin I've heard is that he is a tactician (not insane though ); an opportunist that sees what the roll of the dice will bring and capitalize on it

I think that's why a genuine dialog is on the table now. I doubt he wants a Syria at his backyard.

[BlueKelah]

A month into the war, and Russia has failed to capture any major city in Ukraine. This war has certainly defied all predictions. Few expect the war will actually happen, but it did. Few believe that Ukraine will survive beyond a week, yet she is still standing tall now.

This war has also united the West in ways that has never happen before, and their economy sanction on Russia is going to have a catastrophic consequence on Russia for a long time. Meanwhile, how long can Russia sustain this war, with an estimated price tag of Euro 20 billion a day?

https://www.consultancy.eu/news/7433/res...on-per-day

Putin gravely miscalculated this time and certainly, he and his country is the biggest loser. Will an insane Putin do insane thing out of desperation to win?

DO not believe the western propaganda  Use your own brain to think...

Russians own the airspace, have captured intact quite a few key Ukrainian facilities like the main nuclear power plants, water suuply, electricity, telecoms all under Russian control. Should they wish, they can always just turn off the water and Kyiv will fall in a week. They are also securing more and more smaller cities. Keeping alive the main control in Kiev so that they can get Zelensky to sign off on all their demands and make it legitimate. 

Russia's doing just fine  

IMHO ultimately the main problem is the Aegis Ashore nuclear capable system in Romania and one more soon to be complete in Poland which Russia is super worried about, as when the Romanian platform was completed in 2015 USA was still in the European treaty for short/medium range nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which USA left in 2018 and started building the second nuke facility in Poland due to complete 2022. 

Russia is resource rich being a top NET EXPORTER of OnG/wheat/fertiliser/rare  minerals/coal/etc... They be fine and self sufficient even without the west/europe. They also have the most gold backing their currency than any other nation in the world per printed Ruble. Wars are paid for in gold, RUssia is just fine

IMHO its the Americans and NATO that miscalculated. Now USA faces worse HYPERINFLATION/STAGFLATION and Europe will go into an energy crisis. Just watch, inflation reading for march likely to shoot up to 9% and then 10%, etc. etc.. fed will only do 1.5% rate rise by end of year, no need to be genius to see where this is heading.

i am hedging with more exposure to GOLD/ Oil / Commodities to combat inflation which will be a big problem even if the war is resolved tomorrow.

[BlueKelah]

The best description of Putin I've heard is that he is a tactician (not insane though ); an opportunist that sees what the roll of the dice will bring and capitalize on it

I think that's why a genuine dialog is on the table now. I doubt he wants a Syria at his backyard.

Endgame will likely be as in 1960s cuban missile crisis. USA dismantle the turkey launch sites, russia dismantle cuban launch sites. 

So Russia troops withdraw and nato either dismantle launch sites, or USA has to rejoin the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. Now that  RUssia already has the upper hand, they will probably also get additional post war control of donbas and luhansk russian regions. and may even absorb Crimea into Russian territories as they will want control of black sea for their nuclear submarines and naval positioning.

To me Putin is a smart disciplined guy. He has consolidated power much in the same fashion as Xi, being able to now be reelected indefinitely.

Today he ask for europeans to pay in Rubles  Perhaps make a new ruble type petrodollar. Ruble went up hahaha.. Germans also last week said they cant ban russian oil and gas. 
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europ...ussian-gas

[weijian]

In the last 20 years or so, only AFC97, Dot.com, 911, GFC2008 and Covid-19 really moved the needle. The rest of the time, we were probably just expending our brain power to the noise.

The current conflict, is probably the 1st time I have decided to consciously zoom out of (and ignore) a major event happening in this world. And I think it is a good change.

Safer, Yet More Afraid Than Ever

We were so close.

Just when Covid-19 appeared to be fading, the largest military conflict since World War II broke out in Eastern Europe leading to devastating consequences for millions of people, spiking commodity prices, weaker equity markets, and geopolitical uncertainty.
............
I wish I could tell you that I do what Warren Buffet does and sit alone and read books all day, or go on long walks in the woods for hours to think, but the reality is this just isn’t practical. So, what I do is simply view every headline with a skeptical eye, spend a little more time reading the local metro section of the newspaper and a little less time watching Maddow and Hannity, and find some people on Twitter that I know are more rational than most.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/s...than-ever/

[¯|_(ツ)_/¯]

100% agree.

I spend time in these big news just to get familiar what happening to our world.  I doubt that the time spend will be worth the profits gain in trading in and out. Yes, I tried.

So, instead of speculating on these, I felt that the reward is much more meaningful when I spend time in finding a GEM.  A GEM will perform in all weather conditions.

Gratitude.


https://blog.seedly.sg/hidden-gem-singap...ck-market/

[Behappyalways]

Can Russia tolerate this or Finland and Sweden applying for Nato membership next week...

US Intel Assisted In Sinking Russian Flagship Vessel: Officials Claim Bombshell Escalation
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/u...revelation

[BlueKelah]

Can Russia tolerate this or Finland and Sweden applying for Nato membership next week...

US Intel Assisted In Sinking Russian Flagship Vessel: Officials Claim Bombshell Escalation
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/u...revelation

Russia has gone from requesting Ukrainian neutrality and withdrawing forces to now grabbing territory in the Donbas region, since Zelensky wont budge and getting support from US/UK and EU. 

The main trigger for this invasion has been the security concerns regarding nuclear capable Aegis Ashore land based missle platform which completed in Romania (part of NATO) in 2016, and second one finishing this year in nearby Poland. So NATO will have 2 launch sites with nuke capability aimed at major Russian cities. this was shortly after american backed regime change of a democratically elected pro russian gov, to the current pro-US/pro-EU  Poroshenko/Zelensky era  in 2014

History is just repeating itself, very similar to 1960s Cuban missile crisis during the cold war US vs Soviet Era.

Russia has already said their response to Finland/Sweden joining NATO would be to deploy nuclear capability to the Baltic Sea region. 
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...022-04-14/

[BlueKelah]

In the last 20 years or so, only AFC97, Dot.com, 911, GFC2008 and Covid-19 really moved the needle. The rest of the time, we were probably just expending our brain power to the noise.

The current conflict, is probably the 1st time I have decided to consciously zoom out of (and ignore) a major event happening in this world. And I think it is a good change.

Safer, Yet More Afraid Than Ever

We were so close.

Just when Covid-19 appeared to be fading, the largest military conflict since World War II broke out in Eastern Europe leading to devastating consequences for millions of people, spiking commodity prices, weaker equity markets, and geopolitical uncertainty.
............
I wish I could tell you that I do what Warren Buffet does and sit alone and read books all day, or go on long walks in the woods for hours to think, but the reality is this just isn’t practical. So, what I do is simply view every headline with a skeptical eye, spend a little more time reading the local metro section of the newspaper and a little less time watching Maddow and Hannity, and find some people on Twitter that I know are more rational than most.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/s...than-ever/

Could be just noise. However we do have tightening FED, hyperinflation, wars, its getting very similar to 1970s-1980s scenario (back then same staginflation, rate rises, Cold wars, Vietnam wars (USA withdrew and lost Vietnam to the Communist, much like in Afghanistan/Taliban recently, Arab isreali wars, etc...) We also have China/BRICS nations as a rising superpower and trade wars globally. 

NOt going to take much now to tip us into another financial crisis. 

Chances of a once in lifetime monetary reset looks like getting higher and higher everyday IMHO

[weijian]

The people who grew up in the Great Depression had to acclimatize themselves again in the post war boom. Those who went through the great inflationary 1970s then welcomed 2-3 decades where commodity prices went into decade lows. Finally, US equity investors that suffered a triple whammy (dotcom, 911 and GFC) in a decade, then went through the next decade reclaiming all the "lost gains" via double digit annualized capital gains.

I am really not sure if we are at some turning point in history again. We will probably know in a few years' time? But I do have faith in humanity that we have learnt some lessons of history that any new crisis will be different from the previous. And it is always the lessons/actions that we learnt from the past and applied to the present, that sow the seeds for a new future (crisis)?

Noise turns into signal retrospectively. The only good way I can think is to continue to practise and evolve, and the noise filter will improve accordingly.