War in Ukraine

[LionFlyer]

With MFA issuing travel advisory, things seems to be have gotten pretty real. 

Depending on who you want to believe, some action might get started this week. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapor...fa-2495906

[Wildreamz]

Do long-term investors make long-term (3-5 years and longer) investing decisions based on the potential war in Ukraine? Serious/honest question.

[LionFlyer]

From my view . Yes and no. Most portfolios would have a mix of long / mid term strategy and some shorter term investments.

Yes in the sense that it could be a buying opportunity. War usually means rises in risk insurance in the short term, and certain industries would be affected.

No, in the sense that long term investments are unlikely to change.

[BlueKelah]

If your portfolio is well diversified in different sectors the pending threat of war should not be a problem. if you have gold related sector and commodity sector like oil stock then you be making money now. These have been doing well and will continue to do well if there is any war. And if theres no war then other sectors will rebound from current dips.

[Behappyalways]

First, accuse Vladimir Putin of doing something he never intends to do, a fabricated scenario. Second, tell the world you will strongly respond to the fabricated scenario. Third, tell the world the exact date when the fabricated scenario is supposed to happen. Then, when the fabricated scenario never happens, it is because you are so brilliant and strong to have outmaneuvered and cowed the Russians.

Declare the absence of the Ukraine invasion event as the result of your brilliance and announce a foreign policy victory. That, my friends, is exactly what has taken place.

Pelosi Just Gave The Game Away Over Ukraine
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/p...er-ukraine


普丁葫蘆裡賣什麼藥？ 急轉彎宣布從烏國邊境部分撤軍 卻遭美爆料仍有侵犯烏國可能！能源價格飆7年之高 俄羅斯大賺能源財成最大贏家？│主播 王志郁│【大世界新聞】20220216│三立iNEWS
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RpCPUjSTcYU

[BlueKelah]

There is already ongoing internal Donbas war in the separatists regions of Donetsk and Luhansk backed by Russia since 2014.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/f...st-ukraine

the troop buildup all around Ukraine is is probably to get ready to step in to support those two eastern regions should Ukrainian troops take the offensive and try to secure those regions. Ukraine has about 250k troops which is more than double the 100k reported Russian troops surrounding them. However they have half the tanks and smaller airforce.

The long term goal however i suspect is to regain control of the gas pipelines going through Ukraine to Europe as 80% of Russias gas exports to Europe go through Ukraine. There have been some disputes in the past of Ukraine stealing Russias gas as well as racking up debts etc...

Of course there have also been people who say that Kyiv is the ancient motherland of the Kievan Rus and Russia wants it back in its fold, so Putin can become the next "Tsar"

[Behappyalways]

Personally I feel that US is more keen to escalate the event than Russia due to political reasons. High inflation is eating into Biden's popularity and one fast way(2022 mid term election) to reduce inflation is to crash the market. But you cannot be seen doing it so Russia is a good boogie man. It's all Russia fault for the market crash.....so US right now is edging Russia on...trying to make it difficult for Russia not to start one


https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisIsSoliman...nies-troop

[CY09]

Whenever a large scale military exercise happens near their borders, countries will draw reference to the Yom Kippur war. Then Arab coalition forces were conducting a joint military exercise and then it morphed it into an invasion of Israel.

It is also not cheap to hold an exercise with 150,000 soldiers based on satellite images. For context, 150,000 forces is about the size of 200 battalions. That is a large number of soldiers to carry out an exercise

[LionFlyer]

Whenever a large scale military exercise happens near their borders, countries will draw reference to the Yom Kippur war. Then Arab coalition forces were conducting a joint military exercise and then it morphed it into an invasion of Israel.

It is also not cheap to hold an exercise with 150,000 soldiers based on satellite images. For context, 150,000 forces is about the size of 200 battalions. That is a large number of soldiers to carry out an exercise

Well, this is an investment thread, not an international relations discussion but I will keep in short.

The Yom Kippur war was successful and achieved strategic surprise because the Israelis (Golda Meir) rejected the possibility of an attack, even though they had the intelligence that suggested otherwise. It shows that intelligence and information is only as useful as how the decision makers use it. Biases, sterotypes and past experiences (the overwhelming win in the 1965 war) of often cloud the judgements.

In the case of Ukraine, Russia is playing a very strong hand to get what they want. Yes, it is not cheap to maintain those troop numbers and shuffling them from one end of the country to the other is a massive expense. But if you want to "bluff" or negotiate, the threat must be real and believable. Russia does not have any tactical surprise since their troop movements are well monitored, but they still have some element of strategic surprise.

But I disgress. The Street is reacting to this, which was the reason for my post.

[Choon]

Whenever a large scale military exercise happens near their borders, countries will draw reference to the Yom Kippur war. Then Arab coalition forces were conducting a joint military exercise and then it morphed it into an invasion of Israel.

It is also not cheap to hold an exercise with 150,000 soldiers based on satellite images. For context, 150,000 forces is about the size of 200 battalions. That is a large number of soldiers to carry out an exercise

Well, this is an investment thread, not an international relations discussion but I will keep in short.

The Yom Kippur war was successful and achieved strategic surprise because the Israelis (Golda Meir) rejected the possibility of an attack, even though they had the intelligence that suggested otherwise. It shows that intelligence and information is only as useful as how the decision makers use it. Biases, sterotypes and past experiences (the overwhelming win in the 1965 war) of often cloud the judgements. 

In the case of Ukraine, Russia is playing a very strong hand to get what they want. Yes, it is not cheap to maintain those troop numbers and shuffling them from one end of the country to the other is a massive expense. But if you want to "bluff" or negotiate, the threat must be real and believable.  Russia does not have any tactical surprise since their troop movements are well monitored, but they still have some element of strategic surprise.

But I disgress. The Street is reacting to this, which was the reason for my post.

Read somewhere that Golda Meir strategically and purposely did not want to make the first move against the Arabs. I.e. she did not rejected the possibility of an attack but she took the risk that Israel would be able to withstand the first onslaught and then fight back on moral high ground and with international (US arms) support.