Breadtalk

[RBM]

Today another new high... close @ $1.07 or up 6.5%.
Infact, the share price increase 26% for the last 5 trading days.

There are increasing trend of retailers like us jumping into the band wagen. Bubble in the making?

BT hits $1.00 today with married deal of 3,225 lots strike on $0.95.

This bread is talking...

Thank you Ray168,

I see that the upwards hike in BreadTalk's share price is continuing this morning, 3rd April. As at 10.00 am BreadTalk's share price is up ~ 10.3/4% (ten and three quarters percent) to S$ 1.185. Looks like one very determined buyer is picking up all the shares in the selling line - in the first hour of trading more than 1.4 Million BreadTalk shares changed hands.

Primacy/MINT have not announced any further purchases, i.e. none since their last announcement of March 22nd. I see that this morning's DBS's "Singapore Traders Spectrum" daily wire report included the following narrative (doesn't add anything really).............

QUOTE
Shares of BreadTalk Group have gained 22% over the past week. The current rally has its roots in Thailand's Minor International (Mint) paying about $8.5m since Jan 9 to raise its stake to 8.9% as at March 21. Mint's restaurants are already in some of the same markets in which BreadTalk operates. Mint owns the ThaiExpress chain of Thai restaurants in Singapore and recently bought the Riverside casual dining chain in China.
UNQUOTE

I'm enjoying this ride (for now).

Vested

[Ray168]

Thailand's Mint Gives Breadtalk FRESH Breath of Life
AmFraser Securities, 3 April 2013

Shares of BreadTalk Group rose further yesterday, extending a week-long climb to set a record high amid recent buying from a Thai restaurant group.

The current rally has its roots in Thailand's Minor International (Mint) paying about $8.5 million since Jan 9 to raise its stake to 8.9 per cent as at March 21.

Mint's annual general meeting takes place today, leading to speculation that the market could be hoping for supportive headlines out of that event.

"Retail players are laying bets that Mint could be upping more stake in BreadTalk," said a trader, who reckoned that any potential news has already been priced in.


Mint's restaurants are already in some of the same markets in which BreadTalk operates. Mint owns the ThaiExpress chain of Thai restaurants in Singapore and recently bought the Riverside casual dining chain in China.

BreadTalk chief financial officer Lawrence Yeo told The Business Times that he knew of Mint's investment only through Mint's regulatory filings on its substantial shareholdings and that both companies had not been in contact.

Mr Yeo told BT that BreadTalk has not engaged in any discussions to join up with anyone in Thailand, in which the company already has built up a significant presence on its own.

"We deem Thailand to be another potential market we could grow outside of China," Mr Yeo said.

[RBM]

Primacy/MINT have acquired a further 1.15% of BreadTalk's shares, taking their equity interest in BreadTalk up to a nice round 10.0% exactly. They paid S$ 0.95 per share, acquiring the increased interest on Monday. It looks to me like that Primacy/MINT was the buyer in the married transaction that Ray168 refers to in his Posting # 67 on this BreadTalk VB thread of Monday morning, 1st April.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...2001012B1/$file/BTG_FORM3.pdf?openelement

BreadTalk's share price closed up a further 8.88% (isn't that a coincidence??!!) today. Closing at S$ 1.165 in heavy volume > 4.9 Million shares. During the trading session, the share price reached a high of S$ 1.20, before receding. My broker informed me that much of the trading orders emanate from a wide range of local brokerage houses - he seemed convinced that much of the recent buying (other than by Primacy/MINT) is from retail customers - I took that to mean normal people rather than institutions.

Vested.

[Ray168]

Retailers are moving in.....
(1-day and 10-days Vol-Distribution Chart)

Vested.

Primacy/MINT have acquired a further 1.15% of BreadTalk's shares, taking their equity interest in BreadTalk up to a nice round 10.0% exactly. They paid S$ 0.95 per share, acquiring the increased interest on Monday. It looks to me like that Primacy/MINT was the buyer in the married transaction that Ray168 refers to in his Posting # 67 on this BreadTalk VB thread of Monday morning, 1st April.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...2001012B1/$file/BTG_FORM3.pdf?openelement

BreadTalk's share price closed up a further 8.88% (isn't that a coincidence??!!) today. Closing at S$ 1.165 in heavy volume > 4.9 Million shares. During the trading session, the share price reached a high of S$ 1.20, before receding. My broker informed me that much of the trading orders emanate from a wide range of local brokerage houses - he seemed convinced that much of the recent buying (other than by Primacy/MINT) is from retail customers - I took that to mean normal people rather than institutions.

Vested.

[RBM]

Retailers are moving in.....
(1-day and 10-days Vol-Distribution Chart)

Vested.

The charts you shared yesterday evening were very insightful Ray128. I understand that retail investors also accounted for the bulk of the ~ 3.5 Million BreadTalk shares that were traded during today's SGX session.

BreadTalk's share price has taken a clobbering today - down 7.3% to S$ 1.08. This despite yesterday evening's disclosure that Primacy/MINT had increased their BreadTalk shareholding to 10%. I am wondering if anything came out of yesterday's MINT AGM in Bangkok. I have not seen anything yet?

After the staggering run up we have recently seen in BreadTalk's share price, I suppose this kind of price fall is to be expected.

Vested

[Ray168]

Date April 2, 2013
Subject Notification of the investment of the subsidiary company
To The President
The Stock Exchange of Thailand

Minor International Public Company Limited (“the Company”) would like to inform that Primacy Investment Limited, a 100% subsidiary of the Minor Food Group Public Company Limited, a subsidiary
holding 99.72% by the Company has invested in a company in Singapore Stock Market, the details are as
follows:
1. Date of the transaction: April 1, 2013
2. The detail of transaction Invested ordinary shares of BreadTalk Group Limited
3. The details of acquired securities
The Company name Breadtalk Group Limited
Location Singapore
Type of business Food Service (Bakery shops / Restaurant / Food court)
Share capital 281,063,624shares,
SGD 33,303,000
4. % Investment
Number of sharers 28,109,000 shares
Invested amount SGD 19,612,880 including related brokerage fees
(orequivalent to approximately THB 459 million)
Average price per share SGD 0.6977 (orequivalent to approximately THB 16.32)
Proportion of shares holding 10% of share capital
5. Source of Fund Internal cash flow
6. Expected benefit To invest in well-known brand that has strong growth in
Singapore and Asia and to earn good financial return on the
investment through dividend and capital gain in the future
The value of such transaction is not required to be disclosed under the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s
notification regarding Rules and Procedures and Disclosure of Information and Other Acts of Listed
Companies Concerning the Acquisition and Disposition of Assets.

Retailers are moving in.....
(1-day and 10-days Vol-Distribution Chart)

Vested.

The charts you shared yesterday evening were very insightful Ray128. I understand that retail investors also accounted for the bulk of the ~ 3.5 Million BreadTalk shares that were traded during today's SGX session.

BreadTalk's share price has taken a clobbering today - down 7.3% to S$ 1.08. This despite yesterday evening's disclosure that Primacy/MINT had increased their BreadTalk shareholding to 10%. I am wondering if anything came out of yesterday's MINT AGM in Bangkok. I have not seen anything yet?

After the staggering run up we have recently seen in BreadTalk's share price, I suppose this kind of price fall is to be expected.

Vested

[RBM]

Thank you for sharing MINT's 2nd April Notification to the Thai Stock Exchange Ray 168,

I note that one large married trade of BreadTalk's shares has just been done this morning, 5th April. 1,518,000 shares (or ~ 0.55% of BreadTalk's market cap) have changed hands at a price of S$ 1.103. Pleasing that this is higher than yesterday evening's close of S$ 1.08. It will be even more interesting to see who the Buyer of these shares is - I doubt this one is a "retail investor".

Vested

[wozhaodaole]

Thank you for sharing MINT's 2nd April Notification to the Thai Stock Exchange Ray 168,

I note that one large married trade of BreadTalk's shares has just been done this morning, 5th April. 1,518,000 shares (or ~ 0.55% of BreadTalk's market cap) have changed hands at a price of S$ 1.103. Pleasing that this is higher than yesterday evening's close of S$ 1.08. It will be even more interesting to see who the Buyer of these shares is - I doubt this one is a "retail investor".

Vested

still vested? i think mint selling already. haha

[RBM]

Please find below a Motley Fool piece regarding BreadTalk, issued yesterday, 5th April 2013. I see that Benjamin Graham is cited - he is the eminent chap whose photograph appears at the top left hand corner of this web-forum - some refer to him as the father of "value investing".

I recall that Motley Fool recommended BreadTalk investors sell and be “happy with what they have got” early last October …….. when BreadTalk’s share price was S$ 0.595.

BreadTalk’s share price took another hammering during yesterday's trading session. Down ~ 5.6% to S$ 1.02 in volume of over 4.3 Million shares.

QUOTE
Breadtalk, What’s Happened to You?
By Ser Jing Chong - April 5, 2013

Food & beverage (F&B) retail outlet operator Breadtalk (SGX: 5DA) recently sent investors’ hearts aflutter after attracting the attention of Thai hospitality, leisure and retail company, Minor International.

Rising Attraction

On 22 March 2013, an announcement was made that Minor International had increased its ownership stake in Breadtalk from 6.3% to 8.9%. Subsequently, shares of Breadtalk gained up to 26.7% when it hit $1.16 on 3 April 2013. In contrast, the Straits Times Index (SGX: STI) barely moved in that time frame with a 1.9% increase.

Prior to the announcement, Breadtalk’s market value was roughly S$240m. So, the market thought Breadtalk – as a company – was suddenly worth almost S$64m more (26.7% of S$240m is equal to S$64m. So, Breadtalk was worth S$304m on 3 April 2013) after the disclosure of Minor International’s ownership stakes.

Woah, what happened?

But, a curious thing then happened. On Wednesday, Breadtalk yet again announced a change in Minor International’s ownership stake of the F&B company. This time, Minor International bought even more shares and now owns 10% of Breadtalk.

And how did the market respond? Well, Breadtalk’s shares fell by 7.3% to $1.08 on Thursday. Let me get this straight. First, the market thought Breadtalk was worth S$64m more when Minor International’s stake in the Singaporean company increased from 6.3% to 8.9%. Then, the market thought Breadtalk was worth $22m less (7.3% of S$304m is equal to S$22m) when the Thai company’s ownership stake increased to 10%.

What’s going on here?

Mr. Market’s Here to Serve.

Truth is, I don’t know what’s going on. In fact, I doubt anybody knows what’s really going on. And that’s what characterises the stock market. Short-term wiggles are largely unfathomable and can happen for no fundamental changes in the business. What’s important is that, more often than not, share prices for businesses with improved profits, cash flow and balance sheet strength will trend upwards in aggregate over the long run. The reverse is true for businesses with deteriorating fundamentals – prices tend to move downwards.

If we think about Breadtalk’s situation, customers in their Ding Tai Fung restaurants, Breadtalk and Toastbox outlets and Food Republic food courts will not stop coming because a Thai company has been buying up shares. In other words, its fundamentals remain unchanged. So how can its value fluctuate upwards by S$64m and then crash by S$22m, as suggested by the market’s reaction, all in the space of 10 days?

Benjamin Graham, the intellectual father-figure of value investing, introduced an allegory in his book The Intelligent Investor. The allegory concerns the character Mr. Market and Warren Buffett (famed investor and mentee of Graham) had this to say about it:

Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his. Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

What this means is, the stock market and individual share prices can sometimes move without logical reasons and an investor should ignore that and focus on the business’s fundamentals to appraise its intrinsic value. And in the case of Breadtalk, its investors should forget about Minor International and the market’s reaction to it and instead focus on what’s Foolishly important – how well the business is doing.
UNQUOTE

Vested

[Ray168]

Hi RBM, thanks for the article.

Indeed, Mr. market is unpredictable.

Let the market serve us, and not commnd us.

What this means is, the stock market and individual share prices can sometimes move without logical reasons and an investor should ignore that and focus on the business’s fundamentals to appraise its intrinsic value. And in the case of Breadtalk, its investors should forget about Minor International and the market’s reaction to it and instead focus on what’s Foolishly important – how well the business is doing.

Still vested.