Fears of a Black Swan in Singapore General Election 2011

[Gosling]

I know the feelings and you are definitely not alone. Its one thing to be called these by anonymous people online hiding behind a nick. Its quite another when people you socialise, interact and know on a personal level does the same.

I am quite sure it happens on a more serious scale in the internet when cowards can hide behind a nick and scold people irresponsibly. I must say the folks here are really quite well-mannered even when treated badly. Anyway, if this can happen even in an investment forum like Valuebuddies right in this thread where the people are much more rational than the average person, what more do you expect from elsewhere?

Discussing politics online should still be continued because it offers an outlet to let off steam

[kazukirai]

And if after making those due considerations, my choice is still PAP does that make me a PAP lapdog??

Not in my eyes.
Remember, each one of us has a vote and just like you would if you were a shareholder at an AGM, you vote for who can better your self-interest.

- Some people vote for incumbent because they think that management is honest, competent etc.
- Some people vote against current management out even if this is causes short-term harm to the stock price but may help in the long-run because management has been taking a wrong strategic decision.

So, there are so many different groups of people, each at different stages in life. No single party can represent all groups of people without some being worse off than others.

Your vote should better your self-interests. How you define your self-interests is a different matter altogether.

---

I must say the folks here are really quite well-mannered even when treated badly.

Second this.
Thanks for making us moderators' lives very easy.
I'm sure MW will also attest to this.

[corydorus]

There is alot of undecided voters, the 1 Man 1 Vote system forced them to come out and Vote.
For this class of People, what's are their traits ?

Cory

[memphisb]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqdMzzCIW...r_embedded

united.

[etan]

It’s time for CHANGE!

I guess the election results,when announced between midnite and early dawn, will serve as a wake up call!

Though we are a democratic society, it appears to be run like an autocratic society.

Now they realized they need to reform their party; they need to stay ‘engaged’ with its citizens, which means they were running the country the way they like, w/o listening to our problems and needs. They are too complacent.

They under estimate its citizens, becos they all the while they thought they have the upper hand. Actually I think they do know some of the problems, but choose not to be bothered and go to the root of these problems.

All this while, they were many solo voices isolated all over the island – meet the people sessions, but their voices were too soft and too faint. So to the ruling party, these problems appear not big enough to warrant any change, just chuck one side.

Now come election time, its collective voices loud and clear, they cannot pretend not to hear our problems. They were overwhelmed by its people - UNITED HERE WE COME!

They have lost touch with its people for too long, becos they are on the other side of the river.
Now, they have agreed it’s their mistake, and have promised to change. What more can they say at this stage – best action is to acknowledge the peoples grievances first, action later, is another matter.

We must have a little more alternative parties who will represent our voices, and fight for us. It's not that the current ruling party is no good, but need some kind of balance and check. Afterall, we do understand it's difficult to please everyone. But at least to see the needy ones receive some attention and help.

I, for one, really hate the way the hdb prices have increased over the years. You can actually save on many other areas of expenses, but if you have to pay so much for so long on housing alone, what is there to live for in Singapore?

So are you ready for change? If not, I really don’t know what to say … Today is your chance!

[tonylim]

It’s time for CHANGE!

I guess the election results,when announced between midnite and early dawn, will serve as a wake up call!

Though we are a democratic society, it appears to be run like an autocratic society.

Now they realized they need to reform their party; they need to stay ‘engaged’ with its citizens, which means they were running the country the way they like, w/o listening to our problems and needs. They are too complacent.

They under estimate its citizens, becos they all the while they thought they have the upper hand. Actually I think they do know some of the problems, but choose not to be bothered and go to the root of these problems.

All this while, they were many solo voices isolated all over the island – meet the people sessions, but their voices were too soft and too faint. So to the ruling party, these problems appear not big enough to warrant any change, just chuck one side.

Now come election time, its collective voices loud and clear, they cannot pretend not to hear our problems. They were overwhelmed by its people - UNITED HERE WE COME!

They have lost touch with its people for too long, becos they are on the other side of the river.
Now, they have agreed it’s their mistake, and have promised to change. What more can they say at this stage – best action is to acknowledge the peoples grievances first, action later, is another matter.

We must have a little more alternative parties who will represent our voices, and fight for us. It's not that the current ruling party is no good, but need some kind of balance and check. Afterall, we do understand it's difficult to please everyone. But at least to see the needy ones receive some attention and help.

I, for one, really hate the way the hdb prices have increased over the years. You can actually save on many other areas of expenses, but if you have to pay so much for so long on housing alone, what is there to live for in Singapore?

So are you ready for change? If not, I really don’t know what to say … Today is your chance!

Many wish to see this.
But will they change or reform as what GY had promised, depending on the final result.
If they have a resounding result, they will declare , once again the people give them a strong mandate for the next five years, the strong mandate signify more people agree with their policies.
So why should they change ? It just doesn't make sense to change with the present policies which many agree and happy.

[hyom]

Hello Hyom,

I share similar concerns when you started this topic of discussion. But just like what you have written in your blog, we should take care of our own money. So whatever happens in the election - even if opposition wins, we ultimately have to make our own decisions for our own future. Whether our economy will tank or not - we know when we know!

I am more practical minded. I have somes examples of what citizens can do if things blow-up:

1) Athens. I am now working here, and must say to reach such a state, all the debates and changing of party will not help - the existing govt was the former opposition. It's whether the Greek citizens will prefer to default or forgo all the past entitlements and cut back.

2) Ireland. Only recently, Ireland was compared to be like the Gaelic tiger - the equivalent of our 4 Asian tigers in the 80s. But now with lots of anguish, the Irish have to ask for a hand-out from EU. Especially painful for the patriots who have fought violently for independence from UK - now UK is the biggest "donor" to Ireland. It's a bit like Singapore asking our neighbours to bail us out.

3) Actions citizens can take:

a) Citizens can stikes and demonstrate in the streets. Can even vote for new opposition - but if the Greeks vote in the most viable opposition today, it will be voting in the former ruling party!? Or try something new? Vote in the marginalised Greek communist party?

b) The more practical Irish and Greeks graduates have already moved abroad to find employment opportunities. The wealthier ones have also migrated or planning to. That's one way to avoid paying higher taxes and have their children saddled with "sins" of the parents.

c) In Asia, we have the Taiwan example. Very exciting democracy - especially the fights in parliament. When Chen Shui Pian was voted in, the Taiwan economy suffered - perhaps a co-incidence. When I was in working in China 3 years ago, I found quite a few Taiwanese businessmen who have moved their factories and families to China. Worked with quite a few young Taiwanese graduates in China too - they said Taiwan job opportunities were more limited then....

But nothing is written in stone. The Taiwanese then voted back the old ruling Nationalist party.

d) That's the beauty of democracy and mobility. We either vote with our ballots or our feet.

Hi Jared Seah,

Thank you for your reply. Migrating to greener pastures is an option available to upper-income, much harder for the lower-income and middle-income. Most people without adequate savings are stuck here to face the consequences of bad or good but poorly executed government policies.

The opposition has talked about slapping the driver(PAP) if he drives off-course. What worries me more is that only the driver has a parachute while the passengers will have to die in a car-crash. The government elites, with their extremely high salaries and bonuses, can always migrate to greener pastures and retire in comfort. What worries me further is that the driver's bonuses may depend on driving faster(higher GDP at all costs) to reach the destination, thereby compromising safety. He needs not worry as much about a car crash as the rest of the passengers because only he has a parachute. Wrong KPIs and perverse incentives among the government elite circle are what worry me most.

---

and if after making those due considerations, my choice is still PAP does that make me a PAP lapdog??

Just because I long a stock while others short the same stock does not mean I am right and they are wrong. After all, we all share the same goal of making money.

Both PAP and opposition supporters share the same goal of wanting a better future for themselves and their children. It is fine whomever you vote as long as the decision process is rational and done with due diligence.

However, we should be honest to ourselves. We should not deceive ourselves that we are voting for PAP for a better future for our children when the actual reason stems from something harder to admit - Voting out of selfishness because we want to be ahead of the queue for upgrading, better neighborhood facilities etc. By the way, I am not insinuating anything about the PAP supporters. I have to admit that when I started this thread, I bore selfish fears of losing money in the stock market if PAP loses power today (black swan)

[violinist]

Anyway, come tomorrow, just be true to your heart. Don't vote PAP out of fear. Don't vote opposition out of anger. Vote for the party you sincerely think will give you and your children a better future.

And if after making those due considerations, my choice is still PAP does that make me a PAP lapdog??

NO. Everybody has their own set of reasons who they vote for, be it personal or national. That's the essence of a democratic system, isn't it?

The PAP's governing philosophy benefits people at the higher end of society - high GDP growth, low labour cost, a labour force that is cheaper, better, faster. So it is only natural that people at the higher end of society (or, as some would put it, elites) favours the ruling party. If they can actually tracked every single vote into a database and do the analysis- votes by household income, house type, social status etc. (which of course, they couldn't do) the charts will clearly show.

I know some people are different. I am sure some low income people vote for PAP, while some high income vote for alternative parties, but that must be very small.

[d.o.g.]

At the end of the day, although the law recognizes the vote in only one context, the vote means different things to different people.

Some vote to elect people they feel can represent national interests.
Some vote to elect people they feel can represent their local interests.

Some vote to protest against people they feel do not represent national interests.
Some vote to protest against people they feel do not represent their local interests.

Some do not vote because they feel their vote has no power.
Some do not vote because they do not want to elect any of the candidates.

Some spoil their vote because they cannot decide and wish to allow others to choose for them.

And so on. So don't praise or denounce someone because they did or did not vote a certain way. Just respect that the vote means different things to different people.

[corydorus]

I personally hope that that there is sufficient seats in opposition hands such that PAP will think twice at ground level, before formulating policies else the next Election will no longer be considered BLACKSWAN.


Cory