(24-06-2019, 09:09 AM)lanoitar Wrote: Last Friday was Triple Witching Day. The odd trading behavior was also observed on other non-property counters like QAF & SBS Transit.
Think Triple Witching explains part of the large MOC orders but it doesn't explain the big moves in non index stocks
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
24-06-2019, 08:56 PM (This post was last modified: 24-06-2019, 08:57 PM by Sumeria.)
(07-06-2019, 10:46 AM)Salem Wrote: Hi Sumeria,
Ksh is being sold down. Is the change of accounting so significant in affecting it's fundamentals?
What about Gaobeidian? It's other projects, etc?
Please enlighten us with your assessment of it's worth now.
Hi Salem, the change of accounting is negative in the short term, viewed from the point of view that short term profit figures (and perhaps dividend payout) will be negatively impacted. However, the accounting change does not affect the “total” profit figures over the long term; ie, it’s just a matter of whether borrowing expenses are charged earlier or later.
I am not sure if Gaobeidian’s figures will be affected as there seems to be some other practice (or rules) with regards to overseas projects, whereby revenue and earnings cannot be booked till TOP anyway. I am not sure whether previously borrowing costs for such projects were also deferred in the accounts.
Perhaps some investors will ask the company this point during the upcoming AGM. More importantly, questions will be asked about the GBD projects’ launch dates, which have been delayed several times. I think this is the bigger issue that will have more effect on KSH’s share price than the accounting change, over the longer term.
With the recent set up by the consortium of a unit to handle hotel development in GBD, there is as yet no indication that there is trouble in GBD. But we’ll see what happens at the AGM.
2. Positive surprise from Gaobeidian: It’s difficult to make a good estimate of the KSH consortium’s huge site at GBD, as the bulk of the land has not been given approvals for development. But patience may be rewarded as the size of the land and the proximity to Xiongan New Area means a slow and steady flow of development projects here (estimated 48,000 residential units and unknown size of commercial sites) over the next 10 years, at probably higher and higher selling prices. In one report I read, Oxley estimated that they could make as much as S$1.35b profit for its share at this site. This extrapolates to S$1.1b profit (S$1.94 per share) for KSH based on its smaller 22.5% stake in it. But with lots of uncertainty with regards to approvals and pricing, it’s hard to put a solid figure onto its worth. Nevertheless, KSH may benefit from a steady flow of residential units for sale from this site, promising it steady profit and cash inflow over a good 10 years.
3. Value of its honest, friendly, generous major shareholders and management: Priceless
I believe the above explains in part why KSH shares trade at a smaller discount to its NAV compared to other smaller developers. A reasonable dividend yield of about 3.5% also allows long term investors to patiently wait for positive news flows (to drive the share price up) while collecting a yearly dividend much higher than parking their money in the bank. The present NAV of above 70ct also gives the stock a bit of price support.
Hi Sumeria,
GG wants to check if your thesis remains valid with KSH so depressed at 41 - last seen 2015/16 levels.
Dam scary leh... u think KSH got problems or not...
Actually, company started buying back shares just last week - 1st time in corporate history?
Last yr DPS maintained at 2.2 - same as FY3/18 despite eps below DPS. U think KSH can sustain DPS?
What about the fears - Oxley - their key partner leading SG prop dev - any issues?
Anyway headwinds u are seeing now?
If not, then the Chinese township delays could well be a good thing - land will not rot mah plus there is a string of positive news coming through from the development of SEZ Xiong'An.
Just want to add the following from the historical point of view:
1/ Just looked up on the SGX web-site. KSH has also bought back shares during calendar years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
2/ KGH has been generous in its dividends: 2.2 cents each for FY19 and FY18, 3.25 cents for FY17, 3.55 cents for FY16, 2.75 cents for FY15, 3.0 cents for FY14, 2.5 cents for FY13 and 1.5 cents for FY12
28-06-2019, 01:37 PM (This post was last modified: 28-06-2019, 01:38 PM by greengiraffe.)
(28-06-2019, 10:25 AM)sunview Wrote: Hi GG,
Just want to add the following from the historical point of view:
1/ Just looked up on the SGX web-site. KSH has also bought back shares during calendar years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
2/ KGH has been generous in its dividends: 2.2 cents each for FY19 and FY18, 3.25 cents for FY17, 3.55 cents for FY16, 2.75 cents for FY15, 3.0 cents for FY14, 2.5 cents for FY13 and 1.5 cents for FY12
Like this type of track record also can be so CHAM?
Thank you for pointing out about previous co on mkt buyback...
28-06-2019, 08:26 PM (This post was last modified: 28-06-2019, 08:28 PM by Sumeria.)
Hi GG,
I guess only insiders have information as to why there have been delays in the launches of the consortium’s GBD projects. The rest of us can only try to read between the lines (say from Oxley’s presentation for eg) or listen to what KSH management says at the next AGM.
My bullishness about KSH a few years ago was mainly premised on the multi-year GBD project, and as the launches have not started, we can’t help but see some investors giving up on that premise.
The questions now are:
1. Is the consortium’s GBD project in trouble? Will nothing be launched at all?
2. What’s the loss to KSH in a worst case scenario?
3. How much of KSH’s share price has already built in this worst case scenario?
My hunch is that GBD is not in dire straits. After all, a rock climbing feature has already been built, and there was a setting up a unit to handle hotel investments in GBD recently. Nevertheless, this is just an educated guess at best.
I have not done the maths as to how much the loss will be, but my suspicion is that it will not put a big dent in terms of figures, unless construction has already begun (in which case I would not expect the worst case scenario to happen).
Meanwhile, I suspect KSH’s share price has already built in quite a bit of the worries about GBD, judging from the company’s recent share buyback as well as the relatively higher NTA of 57ct. As of today, 1.1 million shares have been bought back in about a week. If the buyback carries on at this pace, perhaps the share price will rebound from here.
As for its Singapore business, KSH has sold enough units in its JV projects here so far as to not warrant much worries.
I think Oxley is much riskier than KSH, but even then I am not overly worried about Oxley. I believe it will be able to deleverage in good time.
There has always been talk about KSH being a target of shorting, and a big one at that. I am not sure how true that is, but if true, perhaps the launch and good sales at GBD will force a short covering.
In any case, KSH is not alone in being an underperformer. Most second liner property stocks as well as many other retail counters on SGX suffer from disinterest among retail players. These days, it’s only the algos and the institutions which are active, and they are mainly playing the blue chips and liquid bigger caps stocks. To join in the action, one has to own the likes of banks and big cap prop developers. Once a while though, some small cap counter will spring to life, in a “situational” play. Until then (and hopefully in the case of KSH), there is nothing much we can do except diversifying into liquid bigger cap stocks.
I guess only insiders have information as to why there have been delays in the launches of the consortium’s GBD projects. The rest of us can only try to read between the lines (say from Oxley’s presentation for eg) or listen to what KSH management says at the next AGM.
My bullishness about KSH a few years ago was mainly premised on the multi-year GBD project, and as the launches have not started, we can’t help but see some investors giving up on that premise.
The questions now are:
1. Is the consortium’s GBD project in trouble? Will nothing be launched at all?
2. What’s the loss to KSH in a worst case scenario?
3. How much of KSH’s share price has already built in this worst case scenario?
My hunch is that GBD is not in dire straits. After all, a rock climbing feature has already been built, and there was a setting up a unit to handle hotel investments in GBD recently. Nevertheless, this is just an educated guess at best.
I have not done the maths as to how much the loss will be, but my suspicion is that it will not put a big dent in terms of figures, unless construction has already begun (in which case I would not expect the worst case scenario to happen).
Meanwhile, I suspect KSH’s share price has already built in quite a bit of the worries about GBD, judging from the company’s recent share buyback as well as the relatively higher NTA of 57ct. As of today, 1.1 million shares have been bought back in about a week. If the buyback carries on at this pace, perhaps the share price will rebound from here.
As for its Singapore business, KSH has sold enough units in its JV projects here so far as to not warrant much worries.
I think Oxley is much riskier than KSH, but even then I am not overly worried about Oxley. I believe it will be able to deleverage in good time.
There has always been talk about KSH being a target of shorting, and a big one at that. I am not sure how true that is, but if true, perhaps the launch and good sales at GBD will force a short covering.
In any case, KSH is not alone in being an underperformer. Most second liner property stocks as well as many other retail counters on SGX suffer from disinterest among retail players. These days, it’s only the algos and the institutions which are active, and they are mainly playing the blue chips and liquid bigger caps stocks. To join in the action, one has to own the likes of banks and big cap prop developers. Once a while though, some small cap counter will spring to life, in a “situational” play. Until then (and hopefully in the case of KSH), there is nothing much we can do except diversifying into liquid bigger cap stocks.
I have enclosed a summary. Extracts from 2018 AR and credits to my caveman mate.
KSH price started dropping in April. I wonder if it could be linked to the following announcement by the Chinese Govt. In summary the announcement is about the broadening of hukou for small to mid tier city.
Gaobeidian is a very small city. Baidu says the population is 600,000 (2016 census). Above measures could be negative for Gaobeidian because more people can choose to migrate to bigger cities, more vibrant, more job opportunities, etc.
Also, the planned Gaobeidian project is for 50,000 residential units. But Gaobedian itself only have a population of 600,000, how can the natural population sustain 50,000 units?
03-07-2019, 05:00 PM (This post was last modified: 03-07-2019, 05:01 PM by greengiraffe.)
(02-07-2019, 03:51 PM)namralk Wrote: KSH price started dropping in April. I wonder if it could be linked to the following announcement by the Chinese Govt. In summary the announcement is about the broadening of hukou for small to mid tier city.
Gaobeidian is a very small city. Baidu says the population is 600,000 (2016 census). Above measures could be negative for Gaobeidian because more people can choose to migrate to bigger cities, more vibrant, more job opportunities, etc.
Also, the planned Gaobeidian project is for 50,000 residential units. But Gaobedian itself only have a population of 600,000, how can the natural population sustain 50,000 units?
So at these depressed levels still no value to be found in core business ex GBD?
In your opinion is your researched news in the price?
By the way, can we focus on the half full news via googling news thread on Xiong'an?
04-07-2019, 11:10 AM (This post was last modified: 04-07-2019, 11:15 AM by AQ..)
(28-06-2019, 08:26 PM)Sumeria Wrote: There has always been talk about KSH being a target of shorting, and a big one at that. I am not sure how true that is, but if true, perhaps the launch and good sales at GBD will force a short covering.
Since Mar19, the share price has declined from 51c to 41.5c
In this period, ~40mio shares were transacted, out of which only 500k were shorts. So the first conclusion should be that the price declines were not really due to shorts.
Something strange happened ard Jun21 - 12mio shares (i.e. 30% of total volume for past 4mths) were transacted during 20-25Jun (KSH has an average volume of 120k for the past 1y). It's quite clear that some bloke were out to to do something to a certain number of shares (e.g. QAF, Lian Beng, HLF, SBS etc) but I'm not sure what. KSH does not seem to be part of the FTSE or MSCI index so i doubt its rebalancing of these index nor triple witching. So there's certainly some strategy at work, but i'm not sure what.
Fundamentally, I think the price action is quite simple. KSH has always hung ard 40+c until Mar17 when analysts broke Gaobeidian and it rallied to 66c, and it rallied further. But as news of clampdown on property speculation in China, prop cooling in Sg, and then finally China-US trade war hit, all those who bot from 40+ to 90+c started to take profit wherever possible to lock-in gains, and thus spirals all the way back to where it started.
When the herd reverses, everyone rushes to the single exit.
Homepage
PR Newswire
