KSH Holdings

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Hi Terry, here is my take on KSH’s valuation:

1. My personal valuation of the RNAV of the stock: (a) present NAV is 70.37ct (b) Potential NAV from sales at Affinity, Riverfront, Park Colonial, High Park, Geylang Lor 24 project and a sprinkle of unsold units elsewhere in Singpaore: 21.6ct; © Potential hotel revaluation surplus/redevelopment profits in the UK: 10ct; (d) Future earnings from Gaobeidian projects: 50ct (conservative). Total RNAV: About $1.52. Looking at NAV alone is not enough.

2. Positive surprise from Gaobeidian: It’s difficult to make a good estimate of the KSH consortium’s huge site at GBD, as the bulk of the land has not been given approvals for development. But patience may be rewarded as the size of the land and the proximity to Xiongan New Area means a slow and steady flow of development projects here (estimated 48,000 residential units and unknown size of commercial sites) over the next 10 years, at probably higher and higher selling prices. In one report I read, Oxley estimated that they could make as much as S$1.35b profit for its share at this site. This extrapolates to S$1.1b profit (S$1.94 per share) for KSH based on its smaller 22.5% stake in it. But with lots of uncertainty with regards to approvals and pricing, it’s hard to put a solid figure onto its worth. Nevertheless, KSH may benefit from a steady flow of residential units for sale from this site, promising it steady profit and cash inflow over a good 10 years.

3. Value of its honest, friendly, generous major shareholders and management: Priceless

I believe the above explains in part why KSH shares trade at a smaller discount to its NAV compared to other smaller developers. A reasonable dividend yield of about 3.5% also allows long term investors to patiently wait for positive news flows (to drive the share price up) while collecting a yearly dividend much higher than parking their money in the bank. The present NAV of above 70ct also gives the stock a bit of price support.
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Thanks for the explanation
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Heeton and  KSH Holdings Jointly Acquire Sime Hotel Asakusa in Tokyo, Japan

Highlights :
* For this acquisition, Heeton and KSH will have an effective interest of 70% and 30% respectively
* The 96 bedroom hotel will continue to operate under the Smile Hotel brand
* The hotel is strategically located in a bustling district popular with tourists and locals for numerous Shinto festivals, close to Asakusa metro/train station
* The freehold property has a land area of 361.38 square metres and a total gross floor area of 1,793.43 square metres
* This hotel will be the property duo's second hotel property in Japan as the country continues to show attractive opportunities.

Following the acquisition of Super Hotel Sapporo – Susukino, Japan in April 2016, Smile Hotel Asakusa will be the second hospitality asset in the consortium's Japan hospitality portfolio.

More details in http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20Pr...eID=521836
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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KSH Awarded S$266.3 Million Contract to Build Riverfront Residences

KSH Holdings Limited announced today that it has secured a S$266.3 million contract to build nine 17-storey apartment blocks at Riverfront Residences.

Under the scope of the construction contract, KSH will construct nine blocks of 17-storey apartments and 21 units of strata landed houses that will comprise a total of 1,472 units; six shops with two basement carparks, a landscape deck and communal facilities at the Hougang Avenue 7 site.

With the new construction contract awarded, KSH’s order book is lifted to more than S$577.0 million, to be progressively recognised up to FY2022.

The Group, which owns a 35% stake in the development project, had announced a letter of intent for the construction of the project on November 10, 2017. It has since taken over site possession on August 8, 2018 and construction is targeted tocommence in November 2018, including the demolition of existing buildings currently on site. The project is expected to complete in February 2022. 

Riverfront Residences, which was launched in July 2018, has so far sold over 52% of its units within a month, achieving average selling prices that are within expectations.

More details in http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KSH%20Pr...eID=522730
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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Award of Construction Contract and Update of Order Book

KSH Holdings Limited announced that the Company’s wholly–owned subsidiary, Kim Seng Heng Engineering Construction (Pte) Ltd, has been awarded a construction contract with a value of more than S$55.4 million. The New Contract is expected to commence in May 2019, with completion expected in December 2020.

With the inclusion of the New Contract, the Group’s construction order book in Singapore is currently more than S$486.0 million. The order book is expected to contribute to the Group’s financial results up to the financial year ending March 31, 2021
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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Hi Sumeria,
Ksh is being sold down.  Is the change of accounting so significant in affecting it's fundamentals?

What about Gaobeidian?  It's other projects, etc?

Please enlighten us with your assessment of it's worth now.
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KSH did share buybacks of 300 lots each on Thursday and Friday, at prices of 42-44ct. However, this did not stop the heavy dumping yesterday, which looked very concerted, as the timing, intensity, speed and direction were in tandem with 3 other 2nd liner property counters: Lian Beng, Tuan Sing and UE.

There was a milder attempt at the same panic-triggering exercise at Chip Eng Seng but it was not as successful. The dumping at KSH was mainly done via Merill Lynch.

Meanwhile, on the other hand, Bukit Sembawang saw a sudden surge around the same time frame.

Can anyone share a clue as to what’s going on? KSH has often been rumoured to be the target of shorting, so Friday’s sudden fall on big volumes looks suspiciously purposeful.
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There was a huge SGD526m Market On Close order last Friday ~⅓ of day’s volume at auction. Seems like a small / mid cap strategy.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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(22-06-2019, 04:52 PM)specuvestor Wrote: There was a huge SGD526m Market On Close order last Friday ~⅓ of day’s volume at auction. Seems like a small / mid cap strategy.

Sumeria, good observation.
Not only the few counters you mentioned, Hong Leong Finance for no reason suddenly spiked up.
Could it be mid-year closing for funds?
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Last Friday was Triple Witching Day. The odd trading behavior was also observed on other non-property counters like QAF & SBS Transit.
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