(13-05-2015, 01:47 PM)catchup Wrote: Anyone here following KSH.
Another undervalued construction and property stock in the same mould as Chip Eng Seng.
But, while CES price has moved up significantly, KSH has been languishing between 50 c and 57 c for nearly a year.
Another one of my "core" holdings.
OCBC has target price of 71 c, which is about where I target my sell
price.
However, it needs some catalyst to move
We have a thread on the company, thus I merged your thread into the old one.
(13-05-2015, 01:47 PM)catchup Wrote: Anyone here following KSH.
Another undervalued construction and property stock in the same mould as Chip Eng Seng.
But, while CES price has moved up significantly, KSH has been languishing between 50 c and 57 c for nearly a year.
Another one of my "core" holdings.
OCBC has target price of 71 c, which is about where I target my sell
price.
However, it needs some catalyst to move
We have a thread on the company, thus I merged your thread into the old one.
Please do a search, before creating new thread.
Regards
Moderator
Sorry, I did make a quick search but did not see any postings.
Must have missed them.
29-05-2015, 02:18 AM (This post was last modified: 29-05-2015, 02:23 AM by johnnydash.)
yes this is a very good company, largely undervalued. share price of 50 cents vs RNAV of 1 dollar ++. The bulk of the rnav is formed by development profits already sold and will be recognised over the following years. So good value and certainty there. Also has one of the sharpest discount to rnav amongst developers, constructions company type.
has a high dividend yield of about 6% based on last year dividend. below is a record of their dividend through the years. very consistent. there was bonus issue once or twice as well ircc.
Is 3 cents of dividend sustainable? Well first secondly the track record speaks for itself. Secondly, the company is generating lots of cash from its investment properties. For the past years the company is getting a recurring cashflow of 5 million(estimated from rental income of 5.6 million), bulk of which from Tianxing Riverfront Square, a high quality asset with occupancy at 90 plus %. From this year on it will have rental income from Prudential Tower in Singapore, grade A, 100% occupied. It will by my estimates get 4-6 million cashflow per year. So from rental cash flow alone, which is more or less stable and certain based on the quality of the assets, we have 2.4 cents already. Lets not forget the somewhat recurring income from construction which has been consistently 20 million pretax(another about 4.8 cents). Of course profit is not cash flow. but the company is net cash, and if there are no changes to capital structure, going forward, these recurring profit can more than sustain the dividend level as it has been in the past. besides there is just so much room to work with. in fact it is more probable that management will increase the dividend amount.
management has taken a very collaborative style, and has astute judgement in projects and tremendous execution ability. i think this is very obvious from the growth of the company through the years, as well as very commendable ROE and ROA. i also like that they take care of minority shareholders, their dividend history says a lot about that. shareholders are rewarded directly and quickly through dividends as company grows and have higher profit. also like that management has more than 50% ownership of company, meaning alignment of interests.
RNAV does not include development of their land in china and malaysia. both are projects for townships which with good execution and timing can be much more profitable then normal projects. So KSH also comes with a bonus, free optionality on this gold nugget.
share price has kinda consolidated at around 51-55 cents range for the past 2 years. so that means a surge to reflect fundamentals will come sooner rather than later, and when it comes will come furious. also current share price does not seem to have reflected the year end dividends. which will be announced tomorrow. there was a huge buy up to 51.5 cents nearer to market closing. perhaps market is finally realising dividends will be declared soon?
KSH results out last night. Declared 1.5ct final div. Total div for the year is 2.75ct, lower than last year 3ct but still good at 5.3% yield.
NAV now at 61.37ct. I expect another rise in NAV of about 8-10ct by end of this financial year, giving NAV of about 70ct.
Hoping that the rise in China stocks will revive property market in Beijing which will be good for KSH's project in GaoBeiDian. Hope mgt can update on this during AGM soon.
Based on the attached report from L&T this morning, I did a rough estimate on the EPS of each of the major projects. By the way, the theme park close to Sequoia mansion is upcoming universal studio beijing.
Total Number of shares 414,353.31 Estimated Development profits $80,000.00 Per share $0.193
Beijing, Liang Jing Ming Ju Phase 4 - Sequoia Mansion
Size (psm) 40,000.00 Estimated Profit (psm) (S$'000) $9.50
Total Profit $380,000.00
Stake 45.00%
Profit Attributable $171,000.00
Per share $0.413
Construction Order Book $420,000.00
Net Margin 5.00% Profit $21,000.00
Per share $0.05
(30-05-2015, 07:16 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: KSH results out last night. Declared 1.5ct final div. Total div for the year is 2.75ct, lower than last year 3ct but still good at 5.3% yield.
NAV now at 61.37ct. I expect another rise in NAV of about 8-10ct by end of this financial year, giving NAV of about 70ct.
Hoping that the rise in China stocks will revive property market in Beijing which will be good for KSH's project in GaoBeiDian. Hope mgt can update on this during AGM soon.
(04-06-2015, 11:25 AM)ngcheeki Wrote: Based on the attached report from L&T this morning, I did a rough estimate on the EPS of each of the major projects. By the way, the theme park close to Sequoia mansion is upcoming universal studio beijing.
Total Number of shares 414,353.31 Estimated Development profits $80,000.00 Per share $0.193
Beijing, Liang Jing Ming Ju Phase 4 - Sequoia Mansion
Size (psm) 40,000.00 [b]Estimated Profit (psm) (S$'000) $9.50
Total Profit $380,000.00
Stake 45.00%
Profit Attributable $171,000.00
Per share $0.413[/b]
Construction Order Book $420,000.00
Net Margin 5.00% Profit $21,000.00
Per share $0.05
vested
I think your calculation on Liang Jing Ming Ju phase 4 is way too high. The profit psm should be 9 to 10K RMB instead of SGD.
If based on 10K RMB, the profit from this project should be roughly 30m (~7 cents per share). I would be very happy if net profit above 4 cents for this project.
I didn't get any information on the Gaobeidian Town project, which is supposed to finish phase 1 in 2015 according to previous press news. This could be a big risk... Any information on this?
Yes, kyle's figs look much more realistic !!
I have no idea regarding Gaobeidian.
since we are on this... below some historical details on this project (from KSH's Feb2013 Presentation materials)
Liang Jing Ming Ju in Beijing
• Liang Jing Ming Ju is a residential condominium located in Tongzhou, Beijing.
It is near Guo Yuan Light Rail Transit Station in Tongzhou and Beijing: - Retail shops, clubhouses,Kindergarten.
• 1st, 2nd and 3rd phases:
- A total sellable area of approximately 57,607 sqm, 112,748 sqm and 18,948 sqmrespectively.
- A total of 1,860 units with total sellable area of approximately 189,303 sq m was completed as at 30 June2006 and was fully sold as at 31 October 2006,
- An average selling price of RMB 2,800 per sqm for first phase and RMB 5,600 per sqm for 3rd phase.
Liang Jing Ming Ju in Beijing
• 4th phase: – Sequoia Mansion (靚景明居 – 紅杉公館)
- Target to commence construction and to launch for sale in the year of 2013.
- The fourth phase has sellable area of approximately 31,400 sqm for residential and 8,100 sqm for retail shops.
Fast forward to KSH's latest Q4 results commentary (29-May2015)
""The construction of residential development project in Beijing, Liang Jing Ming Ju Phase 4 -Sequoia Mansion (靓景明居四期 - 红衫公馆 ),
is expected to be completed in FY2016 and will contribute to the Group's results for the units sold.""
(04-06-2015, 01:26 PM)Vseeker Wrote: Yes, kyle's figs look much more realistic !!
I have no idea regarding Gaobeidian.
since we are on this... below some historical details on this project (from KSH's Feb2013 Presentation materials)
Liang Jing Ming Ju in Beijing
• Liang Jing Ming Ju is a residential condominium located in Tongzhou, Beijing.
It is near Guo Yuan Light Rail Transit Station in Tongzhou and Beijing: - Retail shops, clubhouses,Kindergarten.
• 1st, 2nd and 3rd phases:
- A total sellable area of approximately 57,607 sqm, 112,748 sqm and 18,948 sqmrespectively.
- A total of 1,860 units with total sellable area of approximately 189,303 sq m was completed as at 30 June2006 and was fully sold as at 31 October 2006,
- An average selling price of RMB 2,800 per sqm for first phase and RMB 5,600 per sqm for 3rd phase.
Liang Jing Ming Ju in Beijing
• 4th phase: – Sequoia Mansion (靚景明居 – 紅杉公館)
- Target to commence construction and to launch for sale in the year of 2013.
- The fourth phase has sellable area of approximately 31,400 sqm for residential and 8,100 sqm for retail shops.
Fast forward to KSH's latest Q4 results commentary (29-May2015)
""The construction of residential development project in Beijing, Liang Jing Ming Ju Phase 4 -Sequoia Mansion (靓景明居四期 - 红衫公馆 ),
is expected to be completed in FY2016 and will contribute to the Group's results for the units sold.""
Thanks Kyle and Vseeker for pointing out the oversight on Liang Jing Ming Ju Phase 4 Sequoia Mansion.
With the frosty asset market in china, gaobeidian is a big bet with high downside should asset prices correct unexpectedly. High risk high return i guess. Have to be aware of this big risk
04-06-2015, 02:09 PM (This post was last modified: 04-06-2015, 02:12 PM by johnnydash.)
Well if you know china, you will know that the picture is much more nuanced than that. it is frosty only in certain segments and even so the latest data in April show sales rebounding,signs of stabilising. lets not forget also that china is slowing down but still growing at a 7% gdp.
in any case, the range of 1 dollar rnav that i got did not include any profits from gao bei dian, so the project in gao bei dian is as i have said a free option on a gold nugget. the economics of a township is vastly different from that of a standalone project. it is more a play on migration/urbanisation/ development of an area than prices of property. Those who are familiar with Malaysian stocks and their township projects(at least in the past) will understand the distinction
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