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#21
analYSIS-Rising yuan may not rescue commodities if West slumps (2011/08/18 14:11PM)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Yuan strength unlikely to inflate China''s commodity
imports
* China''s domestic demand won''t offset weakness in EU, U.S.
* Industrial metals seen supported more than oil

By Manolo Serapio Jr
SINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Arising yuan may not
massively boost China''s commodity imports as demand from the
developed world crumbles, leaving raw materials from oil to
copper vulnerable to more shocks.
While a stronger yuan increases the buying power of the
world''s topcommodity importer, China''s domestic demand will not
be enough to compel Beijing to aggressively snap up commodities
when key markets like the United States and Europe are facing
economic uncertainty.
China last week allowed the yuan to rise atits fastest
weekly pace since the global financial crisis in 2008,
signalling that it is moving away from a single-minded focus on
protecting exporters as it worries about inflation and the
weakening dollar. [ID:nL3E7JF054]
"China''s growth isnot in a vacuum. At the end of the day,
China too is reliant on demand from the European Union and the
United States," said Vishnu Varathan, economist for Asia at
Capital Economics.
"China''s domestic demand alone won''t be strong enough to
morethan offset what''s happening on the global stage."
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Commodity prices then and now:
http://link.reuters.com/vam88r
China yuan and exports:
http://link.reuters.com/puk33s
China''s trade with the U.S. and Europe:
http://link.reuters.com/fyg33s
Yuan to gain vs FX basket as policy evolves [ID:nL3E7JF054]
Asia commods markets insulated from crisis [ID:nL3E7JF0GW]
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
The two troubled areas are also China''s biggest export
markets -- the EU takes a fifth of its shipments and the U.S.
around 17 percent, based on Chinese governmentdata for July.
Spot yuan , which hit an all-time high of 6.3820
per dollar this week, has risen 6.87 percent since it was
depegged from the dollar in June 2010 and 3.17 percent so far
this year.
"It helps but we do not expect anappreciation beyond 5
percent is on the cards," said Dominic Schnider, executive
director for wealth management research at UBS.
The recent wild swings in commodity prices, including oil''s
8.6 percent slide in a day in May''s market rout,suggests
even a 5 percent appreciation in the yuan will have little
impact.
The current prices of commodities are also well above levels
seen during the previous crisis, giving China less incentive to
buy aggressively.
Copper ataround $8,940 a tonne is three times more
expensive than its lowest level during the 2008-09 global
financial crisis.
U.S. crude, despite falling 24 percent from this year''s high
to around $87 a barrel, is still more than double its 2008
trough

BUYING SPREE NO MORE
China''s buying spree supported prices of key inputs from oil
to grains and base metals during the last global financial
crisis as Beijing, backed by a massive 4 trillion yuan ($627
billion) stimulus budget,restocked at low prices.
But times have changed, with Beijing''s hands now tied by
tighter credit and without stimulus cash to spare.
Fighting three-year high inflation, China has raised
interest rates three times and upped banks'' requiredreserves
ratio six times this year, making it more expensive for buyers
to boost stockpiles.
"That stimulus was the saviour for cyclical commodities
especially base metals," said Schnider at UBS.
"I don''t think China would be eager to giv it another big
shot especially in an environment where you have price pressure
creeping up from all sides."
China''s tight credit policy could restrict the country''s
spot purchases of refined copper in the fourth quarter, traders
said, incontrast to the past two years when Beijing''s loose
monetary policy helped lift imports to record highs.
"End-users are more sensitive to price hikes given the fact
that it is not easy to obtain credit," said Chen Dixi, copper
analyst at JinruiFutures.
China may also reduce investment and slow the construction
of new high-speed rails for the rest of the year after a fatal
accident last month, which could cut orders for copper-contained
parts and copper-based power cables, said Antaikeanalyst Yang
Changhua.
But China''s latest move to allow the yuan to appreciate
faster than before suggests that the country has scope to
selectively ease monetary policy.
"We believe that China, from a policy point of view, will engineer a soft landing and I think they will go out of their
way to avert a hard landing," said Capital Economics'' Varathan.
"So it will have some scope to loosen credit though this
will be more targeted. They will still have restrictions on the property market but they will cushion other sectors especially
the SMEs (small and medium enterprises) to ensure that the job
market doesn''t spiral downwards," he said.
That flexibility could help some Chinese buyers secure bank
financing andlook for bargains to stock up when commodity
prices fall, although not all can benefit.

WIN SOME, LOSE SOME
"How much weight China can pull will depend on the commodity
in question," said Xinyi Chen, analyst at Barclays Capital.
"We are still optimistic on copper and think that there will
still be a pickup in imports towards the end of the year because
the end consumption that is tied to copper will be public
housing, which is not tied to the current climate," she said.
China is ploughing money into massive development projects,
including an ambitious plan to build 20 million affordable
housing units this year and next.
Other potential winners from the construction frenzy include
iron ore and coking coal, asmills churn out more steel while
the rush by cement companies to ramp up production would also
boost demand for thermal coal, a key source of energy for these
plants.
China''s strength, however, may not have that big an impact
on oil prices.
"Crude oil is still largely dependent on the developed world
and if we see significant weakness in demand there, then oil
prices are definitely at risk," said UBS'' Schnider.
The United States is the world''s biggest oil user, with 21
percent ofglobal demand of 88 million barrels per day at the
end of the second quarter, double that of No. 2 consumer China,
according to data from the International Energy Agency.
China''s oil consumption has been losing steam since May,
with implied oildemand up a paltry 0.4 percent in July, the
second lowest this year, on climbing crude costs that cut
refining margins.
"Can China hold everything up by itself? No it can''t, but it
can hold prices well above levels during the global crisis," said Citigroup analyst David Thurtell.
"It''s in China''s long-term interest to not let prices get
too low because they want to see more mines being developed and
more smelters being brought on stream."
($1 = 6.383 yuan)

(Additionalreporting by Polly Yam in Hong Kong and Fayen Wong
in Shanghai; Editing by Michael Urquhart)
((manolo.serapio@thomsonreuters.com)(+65 6870 3884)(Reuters
Messaging: manolo.serapio.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Keywords: CHINA COMMODITIES/


To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#22
capitaland dn 4.4%
cdL dn 2.8%
keppel land dn 5.4%
manhattan resource dn 4.6%
Sakari(straits asia) dn 5%

STI dn 91 or 3.3% at 2733 on 19 aug

bought STC in apr/may at 3.91. close today with 3 lots done at 3.25(dn 0.9%)
my paper loss: 17%
STI drop from 3215 to 2733 in 19 days(1-19aug), 482pts or 15%
To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#23
STI dn 45 or 1.64% at 2720

STI cumulative loss since 1 aug: 495

STC: no trades done

STC cumulative no of lots done since 1 aug: 30 lots

top 20 shareholders own 302,980,604 shares, leaving 22,916,396 shares in the hands of minority shareholders like me.

Assume top 20 shareholders did not panic sell during this period, turnover among minority shareholders:30/22916= 0.13% caused a 11%drop of STC from 3.65(1 aug) to 3.25(19 aug)

minority shareholders rule the dayBig Grin
To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#24
DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAPU RAPU POLYMETALLIC PROJECT

MSC has a 30% stake in project.

http://www.smedg.org.au/Tiger/Rapurapu.htm

http://msmelt.listedcompany.com/misc/ar2...00023.html






Rapu Rapu processed 665,644 tonnes of ore in 2009 to produce 27,000 tonnes of copper concentrates and 20,000 tonnes of zinc
concentrates. The copper concentrates contained 6,487 tonnes of copper, 23,600 oz of gold and 321,500 oz of silver. About 10,000
tonnes of zinc were contained in the zinc concentrates.
==============================================================
The divestment of the Group’s interest in KM Resources Inc
may take a bit longer than expected. The mine has performed
very well to date and is expected to contribute significantly to
MSC’s earnings. As a result of rising copper, gold, silver and
zinc prices, the valuation of KM Resources Inc has also risen
and MSC is seeking to enhance shareholder value by ensuring
it sells the project at prices reflecting this increase in value.
To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#25
APR 2008: Proposed Investment For a 30% Interest in the rapu Rapu Copper, Gold, Zinc and Silver Project In The Philippines At An Estimated Cost Of Approximately Usd18.9 Million

http://msmelt.listedcompany.com/news.html/id/169438
To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#26
METALS-LME copper steady as looming strikes support (2011/09/07 10:03AM)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JAKARTA, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose almost 1
percent on Wednesday to snap a three-day slide, as a series of
labour disputes threatened output and helped offset persistent
worries about the health of the global economy.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
gained 0.6 percent to $ 8,982 a tonne by 0155
GMT, after falling in the previous session and closing
0.3 percent lower.
* The most-active November coppercontract on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange edged up 0.3 percent to
67,220 yuan per tonne, after falling 0.1 percent
in the previous session.
* A top Federal Reserve official who opposed the U.S.
central bank''s move last month to easemonetary policy signaled
Tuesday he may balk again if fellow policy-makers opt for still
more stimulus this month. [ID:nN1E78519M]
* Exports and stock building ensured the euro zone economy
grew marginally in the second quarter, but householdconsumption
fell for the first time in nearly two years, the EU''s statistics
office said on Tuesday. [ID:nLDE7850AT]
* The pace of expansion in the U.S. services sector
unexpectedly accelerated in August, snapping a three-month
streak of slowergrowth, according to an industry report
released on Tuesday. [ID:nN1E7850B2]
* Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold''s Indonesia mine
workers are set to strike from Sept. 15 to Oct. 15 unless the
firm meets their demands for a pay rise, JuliaParorongan, the
firm''s workers union spokeswoman, told Reuters on Tuesday.
[ID:nL3E7K60NB]
* Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> is working to create a robust
supply chain that would recover within two weeks in the event of
another massive earthquakelike the one on March 11 that is
still affecting output after six months, a top executive said.
[ID:nL3E7K625H]
* Brazil''s overhaul of its mining code will likely double
average royalty rates for minerals, Mines and Energy Minister
Edison Lobaosaid on Tuesday. [ID:nN1E785147]
* China will halt production of rare earths at three major
mines, state media reported on Tuesday, a move which could
tighten supply in China, the top exporter of the valuable
minerals. [ID:nN1E7851KL]
* Th European Union is stockpiling rare earth minerals,
vital for many high-technology and defence industries, to reduce
its dependence on dominant producer China, a spokesman for the
EU industry commissioner said on Tuesday. [ID:nL5E7K627W]
* Aconstruction company building Zambia''s Muliashi copper
mine, owned by China Nonferrous Metals Co Ltd, said on Tuesday
it would sack 1,200 striking workers if they did not return to
work immediately. [ID:nL5E7K646F]

MARKET NEWS
*Asian stocks snapped a three-day streak of losses on
Wednesday as short-covering helped prop up benchmarks, and the
euro edged up against the dollar as traders covered some bets
against the common currency after a sharp overnight fall. [MRKTS/GLOB]
* The Nikkei benchmark climbed on bargain-hunting on
Wednesday after European debt fears sent it tumbling to a 2-1/2
year closing low a day earlier. [.T]
* The Swiss franc plunged nearly 10 percent against the euro
on Tuesday,posting its worst day ever, after Switzerland''s
central bank jolted markets by setting a limit on how much the
franc can gain. [USD/]
* Brent crude rose on Tuesday, after three straight
declines, as tight North Sea supplies, continuinguncertainty
about Libya''s oil and more tropical weather threats boosted
prices. [O/R]

DATA/EVENTS (GMT):
0130 Australia GDP yr/yr Jun 2011

0300 Japan BOJ rate decision Sep 2011

1000 Germany Industrial output mm Jul 2011

1145 U.S. ICSC chain stores yy Weekly

1800 U.S. Fed Beige book

2350 Japan Banklending yy Aug 2011


Base metals prices at 0155 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 8982.00 49.00 +0.55 -6.44
SHFE CU FUT NOV1 67220 220 +0.33 -6.44
LME Alum 2391.00 11.00 +0.46 -3.20
SHFE AL FUT NOV1 17350 55 +0.32 3.03
HG COPPER DEC1 407.40 1.80 +0.44 -8.23
LME Zinc 2203.00 13.00 +0.59 -10.23
SHFE ZN FUT NOV1 16945 90 +0.53 -12.99
LME Nickel 21025.00 350.00 +1.69 -15.05
LME Lead 2411.00 23.00 +0.96 -5.45
SHFE PB FUT 16515 70 +0.43 -10.00
LME Tin 23850.00 -25.00 -0.10 -11.34
LME/Shanghai arb -42

Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month

(Reporting by Michael Taylor; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
((michael.taylor@thomsonreuters.com))

Keywords: MARKETS METALS/


To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#27
LME metal px & inventories

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/07/LMEstocks.html
To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#28
UPDATE 1-Indonesia''s Aug tin exports up 7.3 pct yr/yr (2011/09/12 13:26PM)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Adds details, table)
JAKARTA, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Indonesia''s refined tin exports
rose 7.3 percent in August from the same month last year, but
were down 7.6 percent on the previous month, an official at the
trade ministry said on Monday.
Indonesia, the world''s top tin exporter, shipped 8,559.61
tonnes of refined tin in August, compared with 7,974.05 tonnes
in August last year, trade ministry data showed. In July, tin
exports stood at 9,265.72 tonnes.
"August refined tin exportis lower than July exports ...
That may be because of the declining tin price in the
international market," Toto Rusbiantoro, head of the mining
export division at trade ministry, said.
"It is not because of lower production of tin since there i
no problem with production," he added. "If we compare to last
August, our refined tin export has increased significantly
because weather conditions are more conducive for tin
production."
Benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchangeclosed at
$23,505 on Friday. The metal, mainly used in solders for
electronics, struck a record high above $33,000 in April.
[MET/L]
A crackdown on illegal mining, tighter export regulations,
declining onshore reserves and rain that had limitedIndonesian
production helped drive the tin rally earlier this year.
Trade ministry data showed that Indonesia''s tin exports from
January until August this year were 67,989.84 tonnes.
Indonesia expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes in 2010, on expectations of
improved weather conditions.
Indonesia is looking to revise its royalty payments made on
all domestic tin shipments, to close a tax loophole and bring
these in line with existingcharges on exports in the world''s
top refined tin exporter. [ID:nL3E7JI2D9]

Following are Indonesia''s tin exports based on country
destination, according to data from the trade ministry.

Destination Volumes (in tonnes)
Singapore 7,065.80
Malaysia 759.90
Japan 278.12
South Korea 85.82
Netherlands 76.21
Taiwan 74.25
India 49.73
Thailand 48.58
United States 25.50
China 25.44
Turkey 25.07 Spain 25.03
Australia 20.15

(Reporting by Yayat Supriatna; Writing by Michael Taylor;
Editing by Michael Urquhart)
((aditya.suharmoko@thomsonreuters.com)(+62 21 384 6364 ext
911)(Reuters Messaging: aditya.suharmoko.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

Keywords: INDONESIA TIN/


To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#29
Investor Presentation Sept

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...C00383D07/$file/InvestorPresentation.pdf?openelement
To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
Reply
#30
Business Times weekend

http://straitstrading.listedcompany.com/...change.pdf
To be simple is the best thing in the world; to be modest is the next best thing. I am not sure about being quiet.- G.K. Chesterton

Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong.- Dandemis

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.- Bertrand Russell
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