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Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
04-12-2018, 12:40 PM.
Post: #21
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
(04-12-2018, 11:03 AM)weijian Wrote: hi barefoot,
In accounting terms, we don't really use the word "income". Rather, we use "revenue", "net profit" and "cash flow" etc...."Revenue" is what is recognized as per accounting principles when there is an exchange of goods (invoicing done). "Net Profit" is the profit on paper after accounting for all expenses/depreciation/taxes. "Cash flow" (not free cash flow) is the cash flow after working capital changes (but before accounting for investing activities like CAPEX or financing activities like loan payments/new loans).

I don't have a good study on this company, so i just take a look at the screenshot u provided. For the last 3 years, it seems revenue, EBITBA and net profit is increasing. But "cash flow per share" ("mei gu xian jin liu") has decreased from 1.71 in 2015 to 0.48 in 2017. This seems to correlate to what OPMI means - that is, although the company is selling more (revenue) and earning more (EBITDA/net profit) is increasing, but cash flow per share is decreasing and the easiest guess for this reason is that most of these are nested in trade receivables (ie. money invoiced but not collected yet).

Thankyou very much for the correction. I was reading their chinese reports and have a different translation. This question of low cash flow has been posted to them. I'll share this interview with them by some analyst. The cash flow question is in item 5. They gave a few reasons. I bold-faced the section.

==
通信—企业网—星网锐捷—2018年Q3调研
[Image: v2-309b07d16a89968919622081d9f8c6b8_xs.jpg]
科技-产业研究

科技TMT产业研究和爱好者


一、锐捷网络
Q:企业级网络设备上半年收入增长13%,但锐捷网络子公司出现亏损和毛利率5个点下滑,这个原因是什么?
A:毛利率下滑主要是数据中心交换机突破,对销售收入增长比较大,这块毛利率比传统的交换机设备来说要低一些。客户主要面向阿里等互联网企业,相比传统行业低一些。收入结构的变化使得公司综合毛利率降低。以前是华为给BAT供货多一些,后来阿里等企业转单,公司供给互联网增多。
Q:毛利率会稳定现在的水平吗?还是会回到以前较高的水平?
A:回到原来的水平有难度。
Q:数据中心产品占总的网络设备收入比例大概多大?
A:数据中心交换机收入占锐捷网络总收入大概10%-20%,有几个亿的收入。
Q:随着数据中心占比提升,毛利率会不会继续下降?
A:其它产品也会增长,传统的数通设备(高毛利率部分)也在增长,但增长不会很快。通行业参厂商大家都向整体解决方案在转,新的产品毛利率会比传统产品的毛利率会低一些,但毛利率低不代表不赚钱,因为成本也在降低。数据中心有些项目,去年贴钱卖的今年开始赚钱了,前期的投入基本有成效,现在还在投入,成熟还需要一段时间。
Q:子公司的亏损是规模效应没有体现吗?
A:有规模效应的问题,数据中心效益比去年好,但是还得继续投入,比如物联网的投入,物联网业务还没有上量,由于投入较大导致有亏损。锐捷网络产品所在市场参与者主要就4家,锐捷网络在行业中地位基本稳定。通信行业整体受运营商投资周期影响,但公司受到的影响没有那么大,有稳步发展的机会。
Q:公司前三季度或者全年业绩指引如何?
A:目前没有公开指引,全年预计稳定增长,不会有爆发式的增长,因为研发等各项投入还比较大。由于订单周期比较短,而且有季节性的特点,业绩主要在四季度释放,公司业绩只有到年底才能大致估测。
Q:订单周期比较短,有多长?
A:有些短的订单周期半个月左右,运营商订单周期稍微长一点。
Q:上半年锐捷网络有没有会计确认的问题?
A:没有,今年上半年亏损还是投入比较大。包括看新华三等报表,他们都是收入增长快,但利润增长慢。传统数通市场,这几家基本比较稳定,要发展只能向新的领域和传统解决方案中延伸和拓展。所以今年上半年来看,几家的收入都不错,利润增速一般,大家都在抢市场。
Q:课堂产品发展如何?今年增长如何?
A:国家对教育投入比较大,公司已经做了好几年,发展还可以,全年应该占比5-6亿元。今年翻倍比较难的,公司在市场上已经占到70%的份额,看后续有没有延伸的机会。
Q:云课堂部署后的使用情况怎样?
A:是传统计算机教室升级版,以前是单机,现在是云化,教师管理起来比较方便。
二、升腾资讯
Q:升腾资讯今年发展情况如何?
A:上半年收入增速50%,预计今年全年都会有比较好的增速。升腾主要包括三大类产品:其中POS今年比较平稳,银行智能机和智能终端增长比较好。

三、德明通讯
Q:德明通讯产品出口情况?
A:德明通讯产品全部是出口,德明出口占公司总出口收入50%,而美国市场占德明收入51%;去年年底与美国最大运营商建Verizon立合作,增长比较快。德明产品没在中美贸易摩擦清单中。
Q:德明科技的产品为什么不卖国内?
A:国外有成熟的商业模式,大家都认可,国内大家都不想付费,也没有大家都认可的商业模式。在国内技术上也完全不成问题。

Q:国内有没有与德明相对标的公司?
A:国内不好对标,因为很多是定制化产品。德明和移为可以类似,车联网是主要应用方向,制造业放在公司工业园内。

Q:德明除了美国市场还有其他吗?除了车联网产品还有其他产品线吗?
A:除了美国,还有欧洲,东南亚等市场,除了车联网还有卫星通讯和移动通信的模块等。Verizon和公司是去年年底签的合作,大规模供货应该在今年,是比较大的增量部分,美国消费能力和商业模式比较成熟,是比较好的市场,其它国家规模比较小。

Q:与Verizon合作的商业模式是怎样的呢?
A:美国市场由大家认可的模式,有人运营,有人提供服务,有人提供数据,各环节都分开都有钱赚。德明和Verizon的合作规模还不大,国内目前还没有看到培育起来的迹象。
四、星网智慧
Q:家庭智能网关为何增长这么快?
A:家庭智能终端增速比较快主要是中国移动的光猫的需求快速增长,量很大但这个产品毛利率不高,靠量赚钱,如果量不大,公司也不会做。星网智慧营收翻倍的原因主要是来自于移动光猫产品,系统产品是比较成熟的。
Q:智慧家居这块发展如何?
A:智慧家居这块和阳光城等合作,现在的营收大概几千万级,归类到营收的其它类中。智能家居定位是让自己滚动投入,不断去迭代,不断成熟。智能家居整个行业也都在探索阶段。
Q:智能家居通过运营商还是代理商到客户手中?
A:主要通过代理商到终端用户,但也看产品,除了网关产品是通过运营商销售。由于有些产品很难到用户,所以公司和地产商合作,开发商可以将产品直接装到精装房中。


五、现金流情况
Q:感觉公司现金流状况有点不太好?
A:现金流应该主要还是看年底,现金流下降的原因一方面是原材料和库存占用比较大,另一方面是公司有些应收账款年底到12月份才能回款,有时候运营商提前关账,导致有些应收款过了报告期才能计入到公司。

Q:如果在现金流在年报中不能体现,那应该在一季度体现,但好像体现不明显?
A:一季度会体现一部分,但公司还会加大采购,所以体现不明显。
Q:展望未来2-3年,现金流和利润能匹配吗?
A:基本上没什么问题,负债率不高。


六、其它
Q:公司展望未来三年哪一块增速最快?
A:将来的看点还是主要是锐捷网络和升腾资讯这两块,其它的业务发展还需要时间培育。
Q:视频会议的增速怎样?
A:视频增速有一些。

Q:收入分类中其他业务包括哪一些?
A:不超过10%的产品都计入里面,POS产品在里面,智能家居,安防等产品。

Q:研发费用可以拆分一下吗?
A:基本上每家子公司都有投入,主要还是按各家子公司的规模来投入,规模大的投入多,具体的细节在年报附录中。
Q:物联网业务发展情况如何?
A:物联网业务还在投入阶段,主要去年也在基于芯片基础上做模组,这个要在2020年左右才能开发出来,物联网行业目前还没看到大规模商用的产品和应用出来。

Q:四创为什么这么便宜的出售?
A:1、四创的管理层有独立上市的愿景,如果放在上市公司内的话没有机会。我们在其中是有收益的,四创当时大概卖了7.5亿,而收购只花了6亿。公司本来想获得更高的投资收益,但后来发现三年对赌期有下滑,为防止不确定性选择出售。2、公司目前仍持有四创18%股份,将来如果它独立上市,公司也能获得不错的收益,出售部分股权可以将公司的充分风险释放,还可以防止商誉减值风险。

Q:子公司利润波动比较大,是由于季节性决定吗?
A:几个子公司的收入的收入大多确认到三四季度。

Q:公司的ICT转型,软件收入主要体现在哪里?
A:主要是嵌入式软件,还有一些管理软件:包括云桌面管理,网络运行换件管理,但客户不愿意分开购买。

Q:十大股东名单中的新疆维实是员工持股平台吗?
A:新疆维实是公司员工持股平台,减持主要来自于一些长期原始股东减持(上市前就持有的,持有时间很长了)。大股东有增持,今年增持了1%;隽丰也主要是公司员工持股。

发布于 2018-09-24

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04-12-2018, 01:41 PM. (This post was last modified: 04-12-2018, 01:41 PM by Barefoot.)
Post: #22
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
Ruijie network, a subsidiary of Fujian Star-net, won a largest share auction to provide wifi service for "fu xing hao", the nation high speed railway train. The news is just published at their website.

http://www.ruijie.com.cn/cp/xw-cp-wx/82965/

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04-12-2018, 03:53 PM.
Post: #23
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
Their cash flow per share was low at the end of 2017. In the first two quarters of 2018, it remains low as trade receivables for this company (and most high tech companies in China) are collected in the last quarter of the year. In the Q&A in chinese above, the company also mentioned that raw materials and in stocks occupy a significant portion.

It is good that there are financial experts here. Please don't hesitate to ask for data and I'll try my best to provide. I don't recommend jumping into China's market in full position as their bear market is still in place but it is a good time to look into some hidden gems and prepare.

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06-12-2018, 11:05 AM.
Post: #24
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
Today's price drop is related to arrest of Huawei top executive in Canada and should be temporary. The wrestling of power between USA and china is not so simple. Do not invest high hope in resolution of trade dispute. It will not be resolved for many years to come. Another piece of info to provide is that Starnet's chips supply is from Broadcom, a singapore registered company , unlike ZTE's supply which is affected by trump's gov intentional restriction.

It is without doubt that Huawei's strategy will be focus on smart phone and chips in the future and maybe leaving room in networking for Star-Net to fill as the dominant player.

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06-12-2018, 11:53 PM.
Post: #25
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
broadcom is a us company now
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-c...SKBN1O5172

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07-12-2018, 01:22 AM. (This post was last modified: 07-12-2018, 01:35 AM by Barefoot.)
Post: #26
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
(06-12-2018, 11:53 PM)financiallyfree Wrote: broadcom is a us company now
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-c...SKBN1O5172

I don't think Broadcom is an US company although it is headquartered in California now..In fact, recently, Broadcom wanted to acquire Qualcomm but was blocked by Donald Trump citing national security concern..

Anyway, you can be sure China will work extra hard with their own chips and become independent. You can't expect them to companies from selling their chips all the time as afterall, it is business. ZTE is small but with Huawei, they will lose a significant portion of the business and it will not work. that is why we didn't hear that they are blocking the selling of chips to Huawei.

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07-12-2018, 05:37 PM. (This post was last modified: 07-12-2018, 05:56 PM by Barefoot.)
Post: #27
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
Another line of business under its 100% owned subsidiaries, Centerm, is the POS payment terminal and software. According to Nilson report, it is ranked 3rd in the world and second in asia pacific in term of number of POS terminal shipped (7.5 millions units) in 2017. In the first position is Ingenico (11 millions units), a french company, in the second place, is another chinese company, Newland Payment (8.7 millions).

I have checked Ingenico Group SA's market cap as of today is 3.39 billions euro which converts to 26.4 billions cny. In contrast, Fujian Star-Net market cap is only a paltry 10 billions cny and POS is only one of its line of booming business.

http://m.yktworld.com/news/201809/201809...f2e144f30f

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09-12-2018, 02:00 PM. (This post was last modified: 09-12-2018, 02:02 PM by Barefoot.)
Post: #28
RE: Fujian Star-Net Communication Co. Ltd.
Historical data. The EPS and book value is constantly increasing over 10 years or more. A sign of strong company with favorable economics. Guidance for 2018 EPS is 1.2.

报告期 重述EPS        同比        重述每股净资产         同比
2017 0.85                                          ~6.00
2016 0.59 (0.590 x 1.00) 21.17% 5.35 (5.350 x 1.00) 11.01%
2015 0.49 (0.490 x 0.99) 6.86% 4.82 (4.850 x 0.99) 19.45%
2014 0.46 (0.690 x 0.66) 2.45% 4.03 (6.110 x 0.66) 7.85%
2013 0.44 (0.680 x 0.65) 8.33% 3.74 (5.720 x 0.65) 10.25%
2012 0.41 (0.640 x 0.64) 27.36% 3.39 (5.290 x 0.64) 9.57%
2011 0.32 (0.510 x 0.63) 13.90% 3.10 (4.900 x 0.63) 10.79%
2010 0.28 (0.900 x 0.31) 11.11% 2.80 (8.890 x 0.31) 173.54%
2009 0.25 (0.810 x 0.31) 52.83% 1.02 (3.250 x 0.31) 33.20%
2008 0.17 (0.530 x 0.31) 15.22% 0.77 (2.440 x 0.31) 27.08%
2007 0.14 (0.460 x 0.31)        0.60 (1.920 x 0.31)
2006 (None x 0.31)        (None x 0.31)

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