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02-04-2011, 06:24 AM
Price rises "moderating" is quite different from price FALLING! 
It seems persistently low interest rates are probably the culprit?
Apr 2, 2011
Property price rises slow down in Q1
By Jessica Cheam, Housing Correspondent
SINGAPORE'S property market continued to cool its heels in the first quarter of this year, with latest figures showing price rises moderating across the board.
Fresh estimates released yesterday showed that resale Housing Board (HDB) prices rose 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, down from the rise of 2.5 per cent seen in the fourth quarter of last year.
Private property prices also rose a slower 2.1 per cent, compared to the 2.7 per cent increase the previous quarter.
Analysts told The Straits Times that the price rises have slowed primarily due to stronger market cooling measures introduced by the Government in January, as well as growing uncertainty in the global economic outlook following unrest in the Middle East.
The government measures included a punitive 16 per cent stamp duty for sellers who offload their private property within a year of purchase. The amount banks can lend on a second mortgage was also lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent of the home's value.
The 1.6 per cent rise in HDB resale flat prices is the lowest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2009, while private home prices have now seen six consecutive quarters of moderation in price growth.
Colliers International director of research and advisory Chia Siew Chuin also noted that the moderation in price growth came on the back of a sharp fall in the volume of private homes sold. It almost halved in the first quarter of this year, compared to the previous quarter.
'This indicates that recent government cooling measures and the ramped-up residential state land supply have, to some extent, taken some exuberance off the market,' she said.
The Government has released a bumper crop of land parcels in the past year, offering 17 residential sites with a potential 8,100 private and executive condominium units under the confirmed list of its Government Land Sales Programme for the first half of the year. This is close to the record 8,135 units offered under confirmed list sites in the second half of last year.
Looking ahead, the uncertainties in the global economy, which have been worsened by the effects of the recent tsunami in Japan, are likely to temper prices further, Ms Chia added.
PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail said higher prices and lower sales volume, particularly in cheaper suburban condos, could signal that HDB upgraders are deciding against buying private homes and returning to the HDB resale market for their home purchases.
If this trend is strong, it may put upward pressure on HDB resale prices in the coming months, he warned. This could counteract the impact of government moves last August to restrict financing and home ownership for the HDB market.
PropNex and ERA Realty both said they are already starting to see an increase in HDB resale flat sales volume.
The median cash premium paid for a resale flat on top of its valuation - also known as cash-over-valuation (COV) - has, however, stabilised at $20,000 for the first quarter, according to sales data by both agencies.
HDB yesterday did not release estimates for median COV for the quarter, though it did so the previous quarter.
When asked why, HDB said it would release the figures on April 25 when it publishes the full set of public housing data for the quarter.
The steady rise of HDB resale flat prices has become a political hot potato for the Government in the run-up to the general election which is expected to be called within the next two months.
ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim said that at the current pace, HDB resale prices could rise 6 per cent to 9 per cent this year, compared to 14.1 per cent last year.
But price rises of private homes will probably taper off and stay muted for the rest of the year, reckoned Cushman & Wakefield senior manager for Asia-Pacific research Ong Kah Seng.
Still, home buyer sentiment is likely to remain positive overall, he added. This is because amid the global uncertainty, countries which are physically safe and politically stable will appeal to foreign property buyers and investors.
It seems persistently low interest rates are probably the culprit? Apr 2, 2011
Property price rises slow down in Q1
By Jessica Cheam, Housing Correspondent
SINGAPORE'S property market continued to cool its heels in the first quarter of this year, with latest figures showing price rises moderating across the board.
Fresh estimates released yesterday showed that resale Housing Board (HDB) prices rose 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, down from the rise of 2.5 per cent seen in the fourth quarter of last year.
Private property prices also rose a slower 2.1 per cent, compared to the 2.7 per cent increase the previous quarter.
Analysts told The Straits Times that the price rises have slowed primarily due to stronger market cooling measures introduced by the Government in January, as well as growing uncertainty in the global economic outlook following unrest in the Middle East.
The government measures included a punitive 16 per cent stamp duty for sellers who offload their private property within a year of purchase. The amount banks can lend on a second mortgage was also lowered from 70 per cent to 60 per cent of the home's value.
The 1.6 per cent rise in HDB resale flat prices is the lowest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2009, while private home prices have now seen six consecutive quarters of moderation in price growth.
Colliers International director of research and advisory Chia Siew Chuin also noted that the moderation in price growth came on the back of a sharp fall in the volume of private homes sold. It almost halved in the first quarter of this year, compared to the previous quarter.
'This indicates that recent government cooling measures and the ramped-up residential state land supply have, to some extent, taken some exuberance off the market,' she said.
The Government has released a bumper crop of land parcels in the past year, offering 17 residential sites with a potential 8,100 private and executive condominium units under the confirmed list of its Government Land Sales Programme for the first half of the year. This is close to the record 8,135 units offered under confirmed list sites in the second half of last year.
Looking ahead, the uncertainties in the global economy, which have been worsened by the effects of the recent tsunami in Japan, are likely to temper prices further, Ms Chia added.
PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail said higher prices and lower sales volume, particularly in cheaper suburban condos, could signal that HDB upgraders are deciding against buying private homes and returning to the HDB resale market for their home purchases.
If this trend is strong, it may put upward pressure on HDB resale prices in the coming months, he warned. This could counteract the impact of government moves last August to restrict financing and home ownership for the HDB market.
PropNex and ERA Realty both said they are already starting to see an increase in HDB resale flat sales volume.
The median cash premium paid for a resale flat on top of its valuation - also known as cash-over-valuation (COV) - has, however, stabilised at $20,000 for the first quarter, according to sales data by both agencies.
HDB yesterday did not release estimates for median COV for the quarter, though it did so the previous quarter.
When asked why, HDB said it would release the figures on April 25 when it publishes the full set of public housing data for the quarter.
The steady rise of HDB resale flat prices has become a political hot potato for the Government in the run-up to the general election which is expected to be called within the next two months.
ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim said that at the current pace, HDB resale prices could rise 6 per cent to 9 per cent this year, compared to 14.1 per cent last year.
But price rises of private homes will probably taper off and stay muted for the rest of the year, reckoned Cushman & Wakefield senior manager for Asia-Pacific research Ong Kah Seng.
Still, home buyer sentiment is likely to remain positive overall, he added. This is because amid the global uncertainty, countries which are physically safe and politically stable will appeal to foreign property buyers and investors.
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