Property cooling measures scuppered ‘long awaited’ recovery, could worsen supply glut

[Behappyalways]

(Those with a large landbank might be facing a perfect storm ahead.....)

On Tuesday, Mr Tan cautioned that the oversupply situation could be exacerbated. The current unsold inventory and new supply totalling more than 59,500 units are sufficient to meet demand for about six to seven years, he estimated. This is on the assumption that the 6,500 displaced owners from successful collective sales from last year till the first half of this year do not downgrade to public housing, he said.


Property cooling measures scuppered ‘long awaited’ recovery, could worsen supply glut: Redas
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/pr...glut-redas

[Behappyalways]

Have developers, investors grasped the new emphasis on home affordability, HDB revival?
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/have-de...db-revival

[CY09]

With HDB resale prices now not growing at quick pace, it does makes it difficult for HDB owners to upgrade to a condo. Hence, My main worry is who are going to snap up the new 28,000 of mid tier condos which will developed from all these en bloc.

It seems developers are banking that the govt will maintain its loose immigration policy by allowing more foreigners in. The government does seem intent to continue its loose immigration policy; however with the ground sentiment showing the voting population being thoroughly disappointed with the ruling govt actions in housing, immigration etc, the policy direction may change

[kelvesy]

I was having lunch with a property agent. He said that government is preparing the infrastructure for the past few years after realising they've under-built for the population size. Our society is an aging society, Govt has no choice but to bring in people. Long-term trend should be positive, gradual increase. It may seem like a supply glut right now, but the situation could change very quickly too.

[TTTI]

I was having lunch with a property agent. He said that government is preparing the infrastructure for the past few days after realising they've under-built for the population size. Our society is an aging society, govt has no choice but to bring in people. Long-term trend should be positive, gradual increase.

you mean past few years right? Not days right...
Don't think policy planning thinks in terms of days, or even months.

[kelvesy]

Hey, thanks for spotting my typo!

[theasiareport]

Ultimately there seems to be little choice regarding immigration given the ageing population. Long term population will definitely trend up. There is no shortage of people who want to move to Singapore but making it politically palatable is really one of the challenges the government will face.

Someone has to bite the bullet at some point in implementing it

[dreamybear]

With the recent "friendly reminder" by our govt of the 99 year HDB time bomb issue, it may be time to research and "value- invest" in private properties(at the minimum, 99 leasehold private prop can enbloc & maybe get a windfall) too ! 

I think it shd also be noted that when a property project claims to be X% sold, it may merely be referring to the no. of units launched and sold(e.g. Phase I etc), and not referring to the entire project.  So we have to be very discerning when reading property reports. 

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Developers re-issuing options amid cooling market, launch bonanza
Credit Suisse says two-thirds of options in December developer sales lapsed
Thu, Feb 28, 2019 - 5:50 AM

DEVELOPERS reported that they sold 602 private housing units in December - but the figure has turned out to be distorted because options for two-thirds of them were not exercised by the expiry date.

Lapsed options or "returned units" may be gaining pace following the July cooling measures and new launches begin to pile up, some market players say......

He added: "As with most projects, OTPs typically lapse or were re-issued due to various reasons such as change of mind on the purchase, request for additional and/or deletion of name or change of unit. Moreover, when the recent property cooling measures took effect in July 2018, some homebuyers including HDB upgraders required more time to arrange their finances and loans.".......

Several market players told The Business Times that buyers were not backing out en masse, and in their experience, most reissued OTPs were eventually exercised. A real estate agent said that the practice isn't against current rules by the Controller of Housing, "as long as it's requested by the buyer and the developer is okay with it"......

More details at https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-es...ch-bonanza

[Bibi]

With the recent "friendly reminder" by our govt of the 99 year HDB time bomb issue, it may be time to research and "value- invest" in private properties(at the minimum, 99 leasehold private prop can enbloc & maybe get a windfall) too ! 

I was having the same thoughts previously but noted that the newly built 99 years leasedhold private properties have many blocks, each with very high level units and densely concentrated. The surrounding space area is small. Its unlike those older private 99 years properties where the units levels were low, surrounding space area was huge. So during enblock, many owners were able to get a windfall.

Will it still be the same for such new owners of high levels, densely populated, small areas to get a windfall in the future enblock? I have my doubts.

[dreamybear]

With the recent "friendly reminder" by our govt of the 99 year HDB time bomb issue, it may be time to research and "value- invest" in private properties(at the minimum, 99 leasehold private prop can enbloc & maybe get a windfall) too ! 

I was having the same thoughts previously but noted that the newly built 99 years leasedhold private properties have many blocks, each with very high level units and densely concentrated. The surrounding space area is small. Its unlike those older private 99 years properties where the units levels were low, surrounding space area was huge. So during enblock, many owners were able to get a windfall.

Will it still be the same for such new owners of high levels, densely populated, small areas to get a windfall in the future enblock? I have my doubts.

Good observation.

Hmmmm, actually even for the newer freehold condo units, they are also usually high rise with small land area.

Particularly for the new 99 leasehold developments, I think the "trick" is to buy during market low(e.g. in the past it was 2003 - 2006) and sell during market upturn(waiting for en bloc as u mentioned earlier may not be as profitable or even profitable, taking into account loan payments, etc).

I guess the enbloc route going fwd wld be to go for older developments with big land area, and potential redevelopment(i.e. can build higher levels than existing deveploment) and good location(amenities, transportation, schools).