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Cicadas
08-02-2018, 11:52 PM,
Post: #1
Cicadas




Funny scene from HBO drama "Silicon Valley", reminds me of a young Singaporean investor: http://www.straitstimes.com/business/inv...-investing

Quote:He considers a four-day position in Bumitama Agri his best investment. He bought the stock in mid-March after learning that the El Nino phenomenon would drive palm oil prices up this year.
Within four days, the counter surged from about 81.5 cents to close to 95 cents. His returns were about $675 - about 13 per cent.

Apparently, this scene is inspired by a similar move by Bill Gates: http://valleywag.gawker.com/the-peter-th...1567814812

But IMHO, the El nino story is likely pure luck (price movement in 4 days = noise) hope he didn't learn the wrong lesson.

Any buddies with similar stories to share?

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10-02-2018, 11:54 AM, (This post was last modified: 10-02-2018, 11:56 AM by specuvestor.)
Post: #2
RE: Cicadas
If cicadas are hatching next year the shortage and market won’t react now

Markets are efficient. But Mr Market is also forgetful and usually will only react to catalysts for example a report saying cicadas hatching next month will decimate the crop

That’s why trying to play commodities means one not only need to know the fundy but also very acutely aware what each specific segment is actually looking at. Otherwise you will be “it”

It’s always easy on hindside or looks easy as a spectator.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

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10-02-2018, 06:59 PM,
Post: #3
RE: Cicadas
To be fair, he said it was "projected"revenue, if (and when) there is a global shortage of sesame seeds (presumably next year).

Of course there will be complications such as whether it is worth the risk and time value of money of holding Indonesian sesame seed futures until the catalyst occur (price spike, or news announcements etc) but your point is well taken.

Seems like a legit strategy for value investors, but you really need to be quite the contrarian to notice this before other investors move the market.

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