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(09-02-2018, 01:41 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: On CryptoRuble, it is actually not accurate to call it a 'speculation'; there has already been multiple official announcement by the Russian Government:
Putin considers ‘cryptorouble’ as Moscow seeks to evade sanctions
Max Seddon in Moscow and Martin Arnold in London JANUARY 2, 2018
Quote:Moscow officials say President Vladimir Putin has commissioned work on establishing a cryptocurrency, as state-run Russian institutions rush to embrace blockchain, the shared ledger technology on which bitcoin and other digital currencies are based.
On India:
Will Modi government kill Bitcoin for Lakshmi, its own cryptocurrency?
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new...833957.cms
ET Online|Updated: Feb 08, 2018, 06.43 PM IST
Quote:The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is already looking at the brave new world of crypto currency. The success of Bitcoin may have encouraged the central bank to consider its own crypto currency since it is not comfortable with this non-fiat crypto currency.
A group of experts at RBI is examining the possibility of a fiat crypto currency which would become an alternative to the Indian rupee for digital transactions.
Last year, it was reported the government could launch its on cryptocurrency, Lakshmi.
RBI's crypto currency could be a part of creating its own Blockchain, a distributed digital ledger and technology that supports crypto currencies. State Bank of India has taken the lead in bringing lenders and tech companies together for using Blockchain technology to share information among banks which will eventually help prevent frauds and tackle bad loans which are almost one-fifth of banks' loan book. The SBI's initiative, christened Bankchain, is in partnership with IBM, Microsoft, Skylark, KPMG and 10 commercial banks.
On China:
China’s central bank is developing its own digital currency, even as it bans bitcoin and private cryptos
Quote:China’s central bank is conducting research to issue the country’s own sovereign digital currency, a move in parallel with similar efforts ongoing in Russia, even as the government has doubled down on banning the use and exchange of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Digital legal tender can help bring down transaction costs, extend financial services to rural areas and increase the efficiency of monetary policies, according to Yao Qian, who leads the research at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the country’s central bank.
“The development of digital economy needs central bank-issued electronic currency more than ever,” Yao said during a Saturday forum in Beijing. “It’s crucial to speed up the research and issuance.”
Based on current trends, I would say that we would likely see the first sovereign, state-issued, fiat, cryptocurrency as early as 2019.
Which sounds ridiculous for current crypto investors. So what if China/Russia/India/USA or Japan or Swiss create their own crypto?
Think about this for a second. A state issued fiat cryptocurrency will be controlled by the corresponding central bank, likely pegged to the countries base currency and will still required exchanges/clearing houses for doing forex trading. And if you gonna trade in the cryptoruble for example, then you might as well do forex trading with the normal ruble on forex platform, very fast also what.
As i mention before, each state will want to have control over its own cryptocurrency which will defeat the whole purpose of having an international cryptocurrency like Bitcoin which no one controls.
What I am seeing is just governments exploring the use of blockchain for implementing their own currency/monetary system.
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09-02-2018, 11:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2018, 11:10 PM by Wildreamz.)
If in 1-2 years, the definition of money will be re-written from the ground up. It is kind of a big deal.
Overall should be a net positive due to reduced friction in the economy (there are many social-economic-political-diplomatic implications as well). Every superpower in the world will want to show their technological leadership by implementing the first fiat cryptocurrency (and hence, ushering in an era of true cashless society). But most likely, Singapore will fall behind again.
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(09-02-2018, 11:08 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: If in 1-2 years, the definition of money will be re-written from the ground up. It is kind of a big deal.
Overall should be a net positive due to reduced friction in the economy (there are many social-economic-political-diplomatic implications as well). Every superpower in the world will want to show their technological leadership by implementing the first fiat cryptocurrency (and hence, ushering in an era of true cashless society). But most likely, Singapore will fall behind again.
Friction may not be bad (for the gov). A lot of taxes are levered off those who earn off such friction and the gov in turn gets their budget from them.
A lot has been said about preventing money laundering from corruption/criminal/tax evasion, but do Governments really have incentives and hence the strong will to pursue them to the end? Personally, i think ICIJ and tax amnesties (eg. the recent indonesian one) has achieved much more than what Governments have done.
Btw, i think Venezuela already planned to issue some crypto backed by their oil right? So it should happen in 2018, not 2019 i suppose..
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10-02-2018, 11:30 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-02-2018, 02:25 PM by specuvestor.)
Currencies are not decentralised. The Central banks control it for various reasons. The Austrian model is utopian
Central banks also want transparencies in transactions. They also institutionalised and US even implement FACTA to trace offshore transactions.
It is obvious what kind of nations would be keen on crypto currencies, and what kind of transactions would love anonymity.
Block chain on the other hand has specific useful applications. Cryptocurrency should not be mixed up with block chain technology
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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(10-02-2018, 11:30 AM)specuvestor Wrote: Currencies are not decentralised. The Central banks control it for various reasons. The Austrian model is utopian
Central banks also want transparencies in transactions. They also institutionalised and US even implement FACTA to trace offshore transactions.
It is obvious what kind of nations would be keen on crypto currencies, and what kind of transactions would love anonymity.
Block chain on the other hand has specific useful applications. Cryptocurrency should not be mixed up with block chain technology
exactly.
There is no point being bullish and talking about how great blockchain is. Even if governments or banks start implementing it, there is no place for the cryptocurrency speculator to make money. The ones making money will be the companies providing the service and set up the system like Microsoft or IBM, etc... Oh wait.. they are already listed and you can buy their shares....
Any nation or alliance of nations coming out with their own cryptocurency will also have to follow the current forex rules. And IMO its an oxymoron for thinking about using a decentralised thing like cryptocurrency under a centralised system of a central bank.
I doubt govs would find much use creating their own crytocurrency. As for blockchain, probably rich nation like Arabs and their companies/banks can afford to use it, for other countries, cost to implement will be a big issue.
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11-02-2018, 10:56 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2018, 10:57 AM by Wildreamz.)
@blueKelah Most of the existing (non-government backed) cryptocurrencies is in a speculative bubble that part is certain.
That said, it is important to educate ourselves of impending changes so we don't get caught off guard.
For example, if blockchain truly make the economy more frictionless and intermediaries obsolete one day (not sure the time frame), valuation, risk premium, and long term earnings projections of businesses like banks and debit card companies needs to be readjusted accordingly.
@Weijian Different governments can be motivated by different reasons to implement crypto-based fiat. The Modi administration has shown the willingness to go the extra-mile to stamp out corruption (banning of 500, 1000 rupee notes). This alone maybe sufficient reason to motivate them to switch. Also he has been showing great interest to modernise India into a digital economy.
Putin may have completely opposite reason to pursue his "cryptoruble"; ie. to circumvent sanctions.
Chinese government may have similar motivation as India (prevent corruption, modernise monetary system etc.) but also to prevent cash outflow from the country.
@specuvestor Thanks for the insights. Blockchain technology, Cryptocurrencies (non-fiat), Crypo-Fiat are separate issues, with different risks, implications and opportunities.
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(11-02-2018, 10:56 AM)Wildreamz Wrote: @blueKelah Most of the existing (non-government backed) cryptocurrencies is in a speculative bubble that part is certain.
That said, it is important to educate ourselves of impending changes so we don't get caught off guard.
For example, if blockchain truly make the economy more frictionless and intermediaries obsolete one day (not sure the time frame), valuation, risk premium, and long term earnings projections of businesses like banks and debit card companies needs to be readjusted accordingly.
@Weijian Different governments can be motivated by different reasons to implement crypto-based fiat. The Modi administration has shown the willingness to go the extra-mile to stamp out corruption (banning of 500, 1000 rupee notes). This alone maybe sufficient reason to motivate them to switch. Also he has been showing great interest to modernise India into a digital economy.
Putin may have completely opposite reason to pursue his "cryptoruble"; ie. to circumvent sanctions.
Chinese government may have similar motivation as India (prevent corruption, modernise monetary system etc.) but also to prevent cash outflow from the country.
@specuvestor Thanks for the insights. Blockchain technology, Cryptocurrencies (non-fiat), Crypo-Fiat are separate issues, with different risks, implications and opportunities.
Blockchain is just another database platform, the technology is not new, just getting improved upon. IF it gets more widespread use, it may make things in the economy run more efficiently and probably benefit the taxman. That's about it. No one is going to get caught off guard if they dont know anything about it. Maybe if you are invested in some intermediary company that could be sideline by blockchain then you would need to be educated. But i am pretty sure the limited people investing in such companies will be well aware of changes in that space.
Financial institutions will just start using it if it really helps them streamline their operations and make more money now that their operations are streamlined. We will still have to go to work, produce stuff, pay for stuff and keep our money somewhere.
I don't think our great OCBC/UOB/DBS will be making any less money and we need to worry about their valuations much. They will still rake in the $$ by giving out loans and making money on the interest, just like they have always done for many many many years.
Seriously I dun get what all the excitement is about.
Maybe if they make a hello kitty cryptocoin backed by a real Hello Kitty token. Now that's something I'd line up for 3 hours in the rain to get for my significant other. 
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13-02-2018, 09:23 AM
(This post was last modified: 13-02-2018, 09:25 AM by Wildreamz.)
(11-02-2018, 07:35 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Blockchain is just another database platform, the technology is not new, just getting improved upon. IF it gets more widespread use, it may make things in the economy run more efficiently and probably benefit the taxman. That's about it.
..
The reason why Blockchain get's people excited is not just because it gets certain things done quicker, and more securely (it does). The biggest game changer is allowing value to be transmitted across the internet, without intermediaries. Which is why many people calls it Internet 2.0, the Internet of Value etc.
For example, for the most part, Uber basically is just a platform provider that adds 25% friction cost to every transaction on the platform. What if all frictions like this are removed and return to the consumer and the service providers (driver, transaction verifiers, software developers etc.) automatically and fairly?
Think about it.
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Hi Wildreamz,
You seem to suggest that Uber does not add any value to the public's demand for transportation, that the 25% it levies is unnecessary; that it only pads Uber's bottomline. But if Uber does not levy any charges, what is going to pay the salaries of Uber's staff and supporting infrastructure? Are you saying that blockchain can do the job of Uber? How?
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13-02-2018, 10:56 PM
(This post was last modified: 13-02-2018, 10:59 PM by Wildreamz.)
(13-02-2018, 07:28 PM)karlmarx Wrote: Hi Wildreamz,
You seem to suggest that Uber does not add any value to the public's demand for transportation, that the 25% it levies is unnecessary; that it only pads Uber's bottomline. But if Uber does not levy any charges, what is going to pay the salaries of Uber's staff and supporting infrastructure? Are you saying that blockchain can do the job of Uber? How?
I'm suggesting that excess frictional cost is going away. The days that "gatekeepers" (intermediaries that have the scale and market power) continuing to earn excess profits simply by controlling the infrastructure/platform (without unique value-add, innovation etc.), may be numbered. Yes, that is not going to happen overnight, I would say it would take at least 10-20 years (I'm a pessimist; Chrome is much better than IE out of the gate, but it took them almost 10 years to overtake IE in terms of market share).
Exactly how it is going to happen, IMHO is actually not as clear-cut as many people suggest, but you can read some of the theories here:
Why Blockchain Could Kill Uber
Tech #BigData FEB 9, 2018 @ 12:28 AM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr...0247aa4179
Chasyr Combines Uber And Crypto: Take A Ride On The Blockchain!
sirwinchester (75) in cryptocurrency • 6 months ago
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@sirw...blockchain
Move Over Uber: Blockchain Technology Can Enable Real, Sustainable Sharing Economy
by Giulio Prisco Dec 1, 2016 4:52 PM EST
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/mov...480629178/
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