5 Years of Reflection

[yeokiwi]

http://musingzebra.com/5-years-of-reflection/

bllue00 is Ricky Yeo?
If you are not, then it is better to quote the source.

I think Ricky Yeo is an investor that invests in Malaysia stocks.

[bllue00]

Hi Valuebuddies members and moderators,

Nice to meet you all. I'm Ricky. I am relatively new in the market. Only 5 years. Never seen a bear, yet. Hope I can learn from you guys. I apologies for not being upfront on this. I wrote this without any link or source as my sole intention is to share my own investing lesson which hopefully would benefit others in the community. But I'll be more than happy to take this post down if it has breached the rules here. My apology in advance. Thanks.

[BlueKelah]

No problem lah, just a long post I read three quarters eyes koyak liao. MOD already change the thread to intro section.

Welcome to Vb

Malaysian stocks lot of action now must be fun times for u.

But beware bear market, it won't be party hats all the time and u will need to experience the sudden drop in prices before u understand and adjust ur investing style.

IMHO 1997 afc crash was pretty bad here in Asia. 2000 tech crash wasn't too bad. 2008 gfc wasn't too scary either. But maybe take longer time for next one, all the central bank doing all the funny things nowadays.

Sent from my ZTE A2017G using Tapatalk

[yeokiwi]

Hi,

Welcome, Ricky. Your home page has many good articles.

[bllue00]

Hi,

Welcome, Ricky. Your home page has many good articles.

Thank you Yeokiwi. Nice to meet you. Looking to learn from you too : )

[weijian]

Hi Valuebuddies members and moderators,

Nice to meet you all. I'm Ricky. I am relatively new in the market. Only 5 years. Never seen a bear, yet. Hope I can learn from you guys. I apologies for not being upfront on this. I wrote this without any link or source as my sole intention is to share my own investing lesson which hopefully would benefit others in the community. But I'll be more than happy to take this post down if it has breached the rules here. My apology in advance. Thanks.

hi bllue00,
How's that for an experience at first hand on how resourceful some VBs can be?
To facilitate transparency, i have modified your first post to add the link to your blog post. Have fun at VB.com even though VB doesnt really talk much about msian stocks.

[chialc88]

Good morning blue00,
A big welcome to valuebuddies.com


I scroll thru a few articles and skimmed thru all titles of your posts.
My feeling is you are very similar to me and lots of valuebuddies.

One different is you enjoy documenting or highlighting what you read.
After pen down what you read, from time to time, 
you'll bring them up for polishing (internalisation),
and again pen down your thought.

Excellent way to learn which a big number of our valuebuddies is doing
but not as deep as you are.
Question: does the most knowledgeable person will be successful in stock market? (or in life?)

---

A minor correction.
If you had gone thru the last 5 years,
you would had experience a minor stock market roller coaster.

You might had missed the decline and recovery completely because you had not started investment yet.
ie. still in the learning mode.

If not, then there will be 2 questions:
1. What's your temperament? especially handling sharp drop and sharp increase in stock price?
2. Are you still going to continue last 5 years habit? or it's time to be 
   "think less, do more"
   "less thinking, more doing"
   thinking vs doing

[bllue00]

Hi chialc88,

Thank you. The reflection is a reminder for myself as well. Action always lag reflection.

About your question, I can be wrong, but there is a correlation between knowledge and success (depends how you define success) in life I suppose? Correlation doesn't imply causation since knowledge itself is nothing without action. But if you can turn knowledge into wisdom and apply it in life i.e make better decision, you should be happier I think. Knowledge is just one of the ingredient to success. You still need lots of luck, grit etc for sure.

[chialc88]

+1

Yes, a good reminder to myself to.
Action always lagged Reflection.

I'm not able to see too much action from your 5 years blog posts 
and so was a bit concern that you're falling into analysis paralysis (which some of our valuebuddies is).

I'm an advocate for taking action after sufficient analysis.

The reason is exactly mentioned by you:
1. knowledge (analysis) is just one of the ingredient.
2. Wisdom (especial applied to life) is better in decision making.
3. A lot of lucks and grits is required to be successful.

I felt that my luck had come and I wanted to seek your input on a particular stocks that I'm heavily invested.

It's a 4 baggers now and it's definitely over-valued by any valuation methods.

Micro Mechanics 5dd.si
Growth factors - all numbers, sales, profit margin, dividend, customers, segments, sectors
Product trends - increase semi-conductor usage such as IoT, mobile, cloud, wireless, 
R&D - niche area such as nano technology, materials
Capex - increasing trends
Shareholders - Yeo Seng Chong, Tan Boon Khak (new)

I have 2 questions.
Let me post the first one now and after you answers, then will post the follow up questions.
(with objectives to learn from your insight).

Q1. To hold or to sell?
My thought:
I'm able to hold MM for many years as I do not have any needs for $$$.
I'm also not able to find any investments at this point in time that's more superior than MM.
I'm pretty sure MM share price will continue to go up because:
a) more analyst will report on MM
    So far, only Paul Chew started to provide coverage to MM end 2017
    I believed that more analyst will be covering MM and hence higher demand.
b) until recently (eg. Jan 2017), MM was a penny stocks.
    when people talk about MM, they still remember it as a penny stock.
    at current price point, MM will not be viewed as a penny stock.
    there is a good chance that it might be included into index or picked up by pension funds
    and hence higher demand.
c) MM is actually a USA company
    listed in Singapore
    operated in China, Malaysia, etc
    with Trump, there is a possibility that more factories will be setup in USA. 
    MM take pride of itself for it's capability to setup new factories in record short time in any part of the world.
    However, few months ago, when we quiz MM's management, nothing positive come out.
    I do some thinking and felt that thou MM is able to setup factories quickly, their customers may not.
    So, this could be a long short.
d) MM is a cyclical stocks
    By choosing to own their own factory, avoid debt, etc
    MM maintain the flexibility to counter the impact of cyclical nature of semi-conductor.
    However, this choice actually limit or slow down their growth potentials.
e) MM shares is extremely illiquid
    Very difficult to buy or sell a large chunk without causing a big price swing.
    The current sudden surge in MM price likely is due to promotions by Paul Chew.
    Next year annual report, we might be able to see who is the big player continuously accumulating.
f) From historical record, MM always had a strong castle.
   The change comes in 2009 when MM management decided to bit the bullet
    and make use of the economy downturn to expand their business in China.
    To me, I see that MM had jump out of the castle 
    and build a strong moat.
    The fact is continuous double digit profits, etc operating in China indicates that MM has a strong moat.

[bllue00]

Hi Chialc88,

It would be hard for me to tell you whether to hold or sell MM, given that 1) I don't know anything about MM 2) I have no idea what's your opportunity cost.

But I like to clarify. You mention MM is 'overvalued'. I presume you mean it is trading above for what it is worth, that's why you are pondering whether to sell it, is that correct? You also mention 'there's no other investments superior than MM'. Are you referring to the business quality? or does that factor in the current share price? Because if you do factor in the share price, it sort of contradict. MM can't be overvalued and superior investment at the same time. Unless everything else in your portfolio are relatively even more overvalued.

I would suggest maybe you can get an idea what is the expected value for MM? And compare that to the expected value of other stocks in your portfolio. So you want to make sure that those with higher expected value have a heavier % weighting compare to those with lower expected value. You will make a better decision when you compare MM to everything else in your portfolio, or even better, your watchlist. That way you can get your opportunity cost as high as possible. So you will be thinking "will this sum of money do better if they sit in MM over the next X years, or is it better if they get allocated into somewhere else?". It might be the case you just need to sell some to rebalance portfolio, sell all, or sell none.