Blockchain

[Wildreamz]

I'm not an expert on the subject matter. But when I learnt about Blockchain technology（区块链技术）in early 2016, it is clear to me that it is going to change many facets of the economy in the coming decades.

Hence, it is best for fellow buddies to get acquainted with what it is, and it's implications.

Internet 1.0: Internet of Information (World Wide Web)
Internet 2.0: Internet of Value (Blockchain)

[Wildreamz]

Hype Cycle: Where are we?

Examples:
* Dtube (https://d.tube/) -- Decentralized YouTube, unregulated content.
* Windingtree (https://blog.windingtree.com/) -- Decentralized AirBnB
* Abra (https://www.abra.com/) -- Decentralized Financial Services

The company's service, a mobile wallet app and teller network (also called "Abra") for Android and iOS mobile devices. Users can deposit, withdraw, and transfer funds using a digital cash wallet stored directly on the device. Users with bank accounts in certain countries can connect those accounts with their Abra wallet to deposit and withdraw digital cash to the Abra app. All users (whether they have a bank account or not) can deposit and withdraw digital cash via "Abra Tellers," which are often described as "human ATM machines."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abra_(company)

Nice overview of Blockchain current landscape and future direction:

[Wildreamz]

Blockchain: Hype, reality and opportunity.

[LionFlyer]

Had a opportunity earlier in November to talk with the Deloitte Blockchain Lab team based out of Hong Kong during the MAS FinTech Festival

They built the PoC for HKMA for trade finance purposes, bringing on board the likes of HSBC, BEA and SC. It is real, and real-world applications are out there and will be pervasive pretty soon. But I see one challenge. It has less to do with the technology but more to do with regulation. Since the core technology like Hyperledger / Ethereum / R3 are basically open source, it is quite easy to build the blockchain. Then the question is really, who's blockchain to adopt?

[Wildreamz]

Had a opportunity earlier in November to talk with the Deloitte Blockchain Lab team based out of Hong Kong during the MAS FinTech Festival

They built the PoC for HKMA for trade finance purposes, bringing on board the likes of HSBC, BEA and SC. It is real, and real-world applications are out there and will be pervasive pretty soon. But I see one challenge. It has less to do with the technology but more to do with regulation. Since the core technology like Hyperledger / Ethereum / R3 are basically open source, it is quite easy to build the blockchain. Then the question is really, who's blockchain to adopt?

Yes, there are many Blockchain technologies, protocols, use cases, standards, consortiums out there; some competing, some collaborative, most are incompatible with one another, which is a big issue when we are talking about putting vital public and private information (like credit ratings, asset ownership and health records) on a secure, regulated, and interoperable blockchain (which I feel is a matter of when, not if). 

Specifically regarding putting vital information on the blockchain, most likely it's the Big 7 tech companies (Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Tencent, Alibaba) that is going to see most action and reap the most benefit again. IMHO.

To name a few examples:
Apple has for years talked about standardising electronic health record, and has recently released related patents:
https://www.investopedia.com/news/apple-...lockchain/ 
Microsoft already has many high profile blockchain projects that takes advantage of their Azure platform:
https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/solutions/blockchain/

Then there are the second teir tech companies (Cisco, IBM, Oracle etc.) financial service tech companies (Square, Paypal, Visa etc.), Big Banks, government and exchanges that has made many blockchain related public announcements.

This is all so exciting, especially if you are in the tech and financial sector, but what I'm really interested, is how OPMI like us could profit from this, and what is the next sweeping change that will result.

I feel there are both big risk and opportunities here for banks:
For example, big profits from cross border transactions, and other similar escrow services would likely diminish in the future.
But the whole process of traceability and anti-fraud would likely make the whole banking system more efficient, hence saving costs. 

The biggest opportunity I would imagine, would be to invest in startups, run by brilliant people, that uses Blockchain technology to accomplish some unique business model that wasn't previously possible. But the only way to gain exposure today, is to invest in risky ICOs (mostly unregulated, blockchain version of IPOs) which I highly discourage.

I don't know what else to say but watch this space.

[Wildreamz]

Let's talk about cryptocurrencies since it is what most people are interested in, and see the most price action recently.

I regret not buying Bitcoins and Ethereum (even Ripple) back when it was obvious that Blockchain would take off (who wouldn't?). Many people automatically equates cryptocurrencies to blockchain (the "next big thing"), which on hindsight, should be obvious enough. There were legitimate opportunities for a bubble right there. Experts of human psychology would have seen that coming. Assigning 1% of your portfolio in Bitcoins and other cryptocurrency early in the game was a great way to profit from that, and I say Kudos to those who did.

That said, I'm on the camp that there is absolutely no objective way to value cryptocurrencies. All the relative valuation to money supply, gold supply has absolutely no merit (IMHO). You can make a legit case that one of the cryptocurrency (bitcoin?) would become the defacto "new money" of the digital age that is complete detached from any central authority. But that is your prerogative; one can't assign value to that in any objective manner.

In fact, the fact that the economics of all these cryptocurrencies is so disproportionately skewed to the benefit of "early" adopters, makes me believe that NONE of them would ultimately succeed. 

The ideal cryptocurrency (if the world ever needs one) would probably need the following characteristic:
1. "Regulated" or at least recognised by all major governmental institution.
2. "Limited" supply, or at least hard-coded in a way that no one entity could unilaterally increase or decrease the supply significantly.
3. Freely exchangeable to any fiat currency (point 2 and 3 may be paradoxical) at low to no cost.
4. Do not disproportionally benefit any one entity (including founders, early adopters).
5. Good economics (secure, infinitely scalable and energy efficient etc.).
6. Decentralised.

[Wildreamz]

UBI BlockChain Stock Surges, But What's Behind the Hype?
By DAVID Z. MORRIS December 27, 2017
http://fortune.com/2017/12/27/ubi-blockchain-stock/

At first glance, investing in UBI BlockChain Internet may seem like a sure bet.

The Hong Kong-based company says it wants to use blockchain’s decentralized-ledger technology to track the authenticity of pharmaceuticals. That positions the company to ride the interest in blockchain that has surged along with the market for the cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin that pioneered it. UBI’s stock (UBIAE) , traded in over-the-counter markets, has risen by as much as 1,000% this year at its peak. A 3-to-1 stock split was announced today, and the company’s market value is now well north of $1 billion.

But a closer look complicates that rosy picture. According to a report today from Bloomberg, UBI BlockChain is a recent convert to its namesake technology, with its executives formerly heading up a company that made an anti-bedwetting patch called the UrinStopper. That company, in turn, had been linked in the mid-2000s by a Barron’s investigation to possible fraudulent medical claims about its products.

According to Bloomberg, UBI Blockchain today has only 18 employees, $15,406 dollars in cash on hand, no revenue, and $6.3 million in debt. The phone number listed on its SEC filings is reportedly disconnected. All that information came from a filing for the planned sale of shares personally owned by UBI executives.

[Wildreamz]

I suddenly realize a very real and quick money making opportunity, and that is to short these bandwagoning companies via puts 

[Wildreamz]

An insightful, balanced outlook of the technological landscape of Blockchain.

[holymage]

Companies including BP Plc, ABN Amro Group NV and Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. said last month they will adapt blockchain to streamline physical energy transactions. In October, four banks joined a venture started by UBS Group AG and International Business Machines Corp. to use the technology in a platform for the global goods trade. Natixis SA and Trafigura Group Ltd. announced in March they will employ the system to finance buying and selling oil.

“We’re talking about this massive change in the way that business is being done,” said Eric Ervin, the chief executive officer of Reality Shares Inc., a San Diego fund manager that created an index to track returns of companies adopting the technology. “Everything happens automatically, without a bunch of paperwork, processing and transferring.”

The technology is a big selling point for the global food industry to identify counterfeit ingredients and to trace the source of contamination during product recalls. Michigan State University estimated fraud costs the global food industry as much as $40 billion a year. In August, IBM said it’s working with a group of companies including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Nestle SA, Tyson Foods Inc., Unilever NV and McCormick & Co. to identify ways they can incorporate blockchain.

Blockchain also is becoming a key tool for shipping companies. AP Moller-Maersk A/S in March disclosed a ledger system with IBM that will help manage and track the paper trail of tens of millions of shipping containers. About $16 trillion of physical raw materials are transported around the planet each year, and better tracking offers the promise of big reductions in record-keeping costs. Current spending on documentation alone accounts for 7 percent of global trade, according to the Global Alliance for Trade Facilitation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...businesses