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Welcome back gg. Is been a long while.
I guess for fellow value buddies.. It's hard for anyone to predict the timing of crash. Am looking to divest some stocks for safer ones. Some companies seems very shaky imo.
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(14-01-2018, 11:53 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Hi VB,
Long time no posting.
Anyway, I have nothing much to post except for my outlook for 2018:
Be very FEARFUL when everyone is fearless.
There is this old saying - It ain't over till the fat lady sings... perhaps the sexy lady just put on so much weight that it takes her a lot of effort just to get on stage...
I am always fearful of years ending with 7s but 2017 passed with extremely low volatility and we are getting further and further away from the last crisis. So are we edging nearer to the next unknown?
Have a Healthy New Year
Health is Wealth
GG
Hello GG ,
Welcome back , glad to see your sharing again.
Look forward to reading more of your sharing and analysis again.
You are so right , Health is Wealth !
CFA
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
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(16-01-2018, 09:13 AM)Dosser Wrote: See the attached graph of the rate on 1 year US Treasuries. This bumped along at <0.5% between 2009 and end 2015, and has made a steady move upwards since July 2016. The rate is still not much, but the trend is there, and strong. Things are changing - or going back to normal. Will the trend continue? Economic growth is generally OK, and the Fed (and other central banks) look keen to normalise interest rates, so it looks likely that the trend is continuing upwards. At the moment this is pushing bonds down, but not the stock market. Maybe, if bonds don't look good, stocks are one of the few options left for all of the liquidity sloshing around the system. But QE is reversing, and interest rates are on their way back up, albeit from a very low base. All that QE and ultra low interest rates were a major factor in strong stock and property markets, so what happens as that reverses?
I don't have the answer, but worry that dramatic change will cause strains in the system. Maybe another emerging market debt crisis? We will see.
My current position is that:- I sold off most of my small cap electronics/plastics counters last year - selling off my holdings in avi-tech, memtech, fischer, valuetronics, and spindex completely. The profits (many thanks to Valuebuddies, particularly dydx and BlueKelah) have not been reinvested, yet.
- I have reduced my REIT holdings recently. These have been strong over the last few months, in spite of rising interest rates, and i worry that there may be another taper tantrum. However, I continue with long term holdings in iREIT, First REIT and some industrial REITs, for yield and retirement funding
- I keep some other long term holdings - Chuan Hup, Nam Lee, Teckwah, E & E, and a reduced holding in TTJ. If there are dramatic price falls, I may consider increasing these holdings.
- My only purchases in the last few months have been some small speculations in the O & G sector
- At the moment, I am more in cash than ever before, including a proportion in US dollar deposits. The US dollar has not done well recently, so it has not been a good investment to date.
At the moment I am sitting on the fence, nervously waiting to see what happens.
no need to nervous lah, whatever will come will come. Can't predict.
USD may go up soon if rates go up or there is some panic and flight to safety happens, just depends where all the money flows.
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I hope the Chinese take it a bit easier on the Americans...hopefully...
Is the US a bigger debt risk than Russia and Botswana? A Chinese rating agency thinks so LINK
In comments thought to reflect Beijing’s views, Dagong Global says outlook for US negative as tax cuts worsen repayment capacity
A Chinese credit rating agency has cut its outlook and rating for the United States to BBB+, putting the debt repayment capacity of the world’s biggest economy below that of Russia and Botswana and on a par with Colombia and Peru.
Beijing-based Dagong Global said it was cutting the US’ rating from A- and giving it a “negative outlook” because of the US federal government’s declining capacity to repay debt, a situation worsened by tax cuts.
While Dagong is not directly controlled by the Chinese government, it has argued that the Western system dominated by Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Rating is flawed and China must have its own voice in the industry.
Few international investors track Dagong’s assessments but they are understood to partly reflect the views of the government, the largest holder of US Treasury bills.
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16-01-2018, 09:54 PM
U.S. Debt is the big worry as China may move to immobilise them if ...
How much do we (U.S) owe China?
Now it's equal to or greater than Japan with about $1.4 trillion in U.S. bonds. Americans have no idea how much the Saudis own, but are consistent in our worries about China. As of March 2016, the U.S. government owes almost $19 trillion to creditors in both long and short term debt.Apr 22, 2016
Who owns the debt of the United States?
As of September 2014, foreigners owned $6.06 trillion of U.S. debt, or approximately 47% of the debt held by the public of $12.8 trillion and 34% of the total debt of $17.8 trillion. The largest holders were China, Japan, Belgium, the Caribbean banking centers, and oil exporters.
What was the national debt in 2017?
At the end of FY 2018 the gross US federal government debt is estimated to be $21.09 trillion, according to the FY18 Federal Budget.
Total US Government Debt in 2018
At the end of FY 2018 the total government debt in the United States, including federal, state, and local, is expected to be $24.19 trillion.
Get more information about Total Debt here. https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/
![[Image: total_debt_total_debt.png]](https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/total_debt_total_debt.png)
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16-01-2018, 10:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 16-01-2018, 10:40 PM by edragon.)
(16-01-2018, 09:13 AM)Dosser Wrote: - At the moment, I am more in cash than ever before, including a proportion in US dollar deposits. The US dollar has not done well recently, so it has not been a good investment to date.
At the moment I am sitting on the fence, nervously waiting to see what happens.
I feel your pain, my long dollar-yen trade is going nowhere for a longest of time. Only consolation is the size is still manageable. 
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16-01-2018, 11:07 PM
(This post was last modified: 16-01-2018, 11:12 PM by specuvestor.)
(16-01-2018, 09:54 PM)edragon Wrote: U.S. Debt is the big worry as China may move to immobilise them if ...
How much do we (U.S) owe China?
Now it's equal to or greater than Japan with about $1.4 trillion in U.S. bonds. Americans have no idea how much the Saudis own, but are consistent in our worries about China. As of March 2016, the U.S. government owes almost $19 trillion to creditors in both long and short term debt.Apr 22, 2016
Who owns the debt of the United States?
As of September 2014, foreigners owned $6.06 trillion of U.S. debt, or approximately 47% of the debt held by the public of $12.8 trillion and 34% of the total debt of $17.8 trillion. The largest holders were China, Japan, Belgium, the Caribbean banking centers, and oil exporters.
What was the national debt in 2017?
At the end of FY 2018 the gross US federal government debt is estimated to be $21.09 trillion, according to the FY18 Federal Budget.
Total US Government Debt in 2018
At the end of FY 2018 the total government debt in the United States, including federal, state, and local, is expected to be $24.19 trillion.
Get more information about Total Debt here. https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/
Actually America knows exactly how much the Saudis own. They were close allies until 911
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...first-time
And biggest holder of treasury is the Fed at more than $2t
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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The views of a Harvard professor but I am sure there are other experts who say otherwise.
Stocks Are Headed for a Fall
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-are-...4?mod=e2fb
In short, an excessively easy monetary policy has led to overvalued equities and a precarious financial situation. The Fed should have started raising the fed-funds rate several years ago, reducing the incentive for investors to reach for yield and drive up equity prices. Since it didn’t do so, the Fed now faces the difficult challenge of trying simultaneously to contain inflation and reduce the excess asset prices—without pushing the economy into recession.
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Stocks are now in 'complete bitcoin territory,' asset manager says
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/17/stocks-a...-says.html
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