Fraser & Neave (F & N)

[CityFarmer]

my fault, it is 6 months, not 1 month. if I am not wrong, clause (a) only apply if current shareholding below 30%.

but that does not deprive the opportunity for TCC to acquire F&N shares in the open market.

of course, 6 month for 1% is not a lot for TCC. The liquidity of F&N sure can meet that easily.

but if the rest of shareholders are aware of such condition, will they surrender their shares easily by not a huge premium? if OUE only offers 9 - 9.5, I doubt that OUE can collect more than 30%.

I doubt that the rest of shareholders are as aware of M&A legal code as we do. This is time of the brave ones to collect shares at current prices. 2-3% downside Vs 10-20% upside

I have a slightly difference view

2-3% downside vs 10-20% upside is without risk-adjusted.

IMO, the downside is share price go down to $7-$8.5 after the GO is lapse and no other offers on the table. The risk is not high but possible

IMO, The upside of share price above $11 is less likely. The most likely is hovering around $10 base on my guesstimate cum estimations

There is too much un-certainty for arbitration IMO

[Thai_VI]

my fault, it is 6 months, not 1 month. if I am not wrong, clause (a) only apply if current shareholding below 30%.

but that does not deprive the opportunity for TCC to acquire F&N shares in the open market.

of course, 6 month for 1% is not a lot for TCC. The liquidity of F&N sure can meet that easily.

but if the rest of shareholders are aware of such condition, will they surrender their shares easily by not a huge premium? if OUE only offers 9 - 9.5, I doubt that OUE can collect more than 30%.

I doubt that the rest of shareholders are as aware of M&A legal code as we do. This is time of the brave ones to collect shares at current prices. 2-3% downside Vs 10-20% upside

I have a slightly difference view

2-3% downside vs 10-20% upside is without risk-adjusted.

IMO, the downside is share price go down to $7-$8.5 after the GO is lapse and no other offers on the table. The risk is not high but possible

IMO, The upside of share price above $11 is less likely. The most likely is hovering around $10 base on my guesstimate cum estimations

There is too much un-certainty for arbitration IMO

possible but the possibility is low when PE firms and other conglomerates might swoop in to buy and wrest control of FNN from Thai beverage if that happens.

---

Vinamilk in Vietnam reported very good earnings yesterday. 31.13% earnings growth y-o-y.

This is positive for FNN even though its stake in VNM is not that big compared to the overall FNN.

Nevertheless, VNM is still one of the gems on FNN's book. VNM can grow several times over the next decade given the low base that it is growing from in a large population market - FNN's stake in VNM can increase several times over in value of the next decade.

[freedom]

I think I am in a totally different camp with you.

My bet would be that it is unlikely for any other company to pull out an offer. That ThaiBev already owned more than 30% will deter any other company from doing a takeover without ThaiBev saying yes first. To having > 50% with another one already owning 30% is almost impossible. the price will be hefty.

[CityFarmer]

I think I am in a totally different camp with you.

My bet would be that it is unlikely for any other company to pull out an offer. That ThaiBev already owned more than 30% will deter any other company from doing a takeover without ThaiBev saying yes first. To having > 50% with another one already owning 30% is almost impossible. the price will be hefty.

I think i am in similar camp with you

With TCC holding an effective control (>30%), it has high influence on company decision, e.g. it managed to block the distribution of the APB disposal proceeds.

Anyone come into the party should aim for >50% i.e. statutory control, otherwise it is meaningless. As freedom highlighted, it is either close to an impossible task or a costly one

Having said so, nobody sure on future progress, let's continue to tune-in...

[gwMoat]

Time is of essence as next closing date 8 Nov looms, here are some questions we all wish we have the answers to...

Will TCC try to pre-empt it's opponents by upping it's offer to say $9.50(random guess), thus maintaining it's momentum and initiative, try to close the deal (if possible), and failing which accept a counter bid?

A counter bid at $10 will see them >$500m richer. Not a sum to scoff at, for a few months work (not to mention how much from APB? -wasn't that their original target?)

The Board and other shareholders are clearly waiting for this, maybe even Kirin (although presently the main stumbling block).

Or, will OUE & Co come up with a compelling offer, nobody can refuse? 1st of course, they have to have finances lined up, and partners that can work together (any problems there?)

Then again, they all can wait for 8 Nov to come and go without doing anything..

TCC, notwithstanding it's >30% stake, will have it's hands tied and work with partners that might not share their plans. OUE could be waiting for this (lapsed offer) to put their (who knows what) plan in motion..Or..they can all live happily ever after all (odd couple, treesome, whatever).

It would be an anti-climax! but i hope to sell out before that...

[CityFarmer]

"Following discussions with the Securities Industry Council, OUE will clarify its intentions no later than 15 November 2012 by either announcing a firm intention to make an offer for F&N or declaring its intention not to make an offer for F&N."

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

After 15 Nov, if OUE declares its intention not to make an offer for F&N, the share price will drop to TCC offer price

[CityFarmer]

Today is the closing date of TCC's offer. I am yet to see any update from TCC.

I speculate that TCC will continue to extend the closing date, and will keep its offer price.

Let's see...

[CityFarmer]

Today is the closing date of TCC's offer. I am yet to see any update from TCC.

I speculate that TCC will continue to extend the closing date, and will keep its offer price.

Let's see...

Update came, extended to 5.30 p.m. (Singapore time) on 22 November 2012 and similar offer price

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...000323559/$file/ExtensionAnnouncement081112.pdf?openelement

[VestedInterest]

Today is the closing date of TCC's offer. I am yet to see any update from TCC.

I speculate that TCC will continue to extend the closing date, and will keep its offer price.

Let's see...

Update came, extended to 5.30 p.m. (Singapore time) on 22 November 2012 and similar offer price

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...000323559/$file/ExtensionAnnouncement081112.pdf?openelement

Wonder why it took Thai Bev so late, right to the last minute, to extend the offer deadline. Can only speculate that there was some opposing views about whether to extend the deadline or not. I guess that they finally extended to see what OUE has to offer and to buy time about whether to go all out for the 50%. If they do decide to go for it, then the new price will depend very much on whether OUE makes an offer and how much OUE would offer. If OUE makes too high an offer, then Thai Bev may just throw in the towel. If OUE does not make an offer, then TB may up the offer price, perhaps closer to $10. If this latter scenario plays out, TB will be saddled with larger loan, there is no guarantee still that 50% will be reached and post offer, the share price will still drop whatever the case may be, since the goal is not to take the coy private. Hence if a higher offer materializes, it may be safer to sell in the open market. Btw, don't think that OUE would be able to muster funding for this venture based on the following: it's taking a long time for the offer to come, Lippo is staring at a 250mil bill to pay to Ananda, Lim Tan made a shrewd observation that the three local banks will not be able to provide loans for this venture because DBS and UOB are involved in the TCC and TB deal while, OcBC was the original vendor of part of the FNN stake. The American Banks are going to be very cautious now with Elizabeth Warren in Congress. So, if there is any hope OUE will need the Japanese banks and a partner with deep pockets. This is still possible. But I think that the final arbiter will be how the stock markets are anticipated to perform in the coming days and weeks. The above are just guesswork. My advice is be careful as there are just so many permutations. For everyone who makes money, there will be someone who loses and vice versa.

[CityFarmer]

Time for speculation... hour(s) before OUE move...

If OUE drops the idea of an offer, then the F&N share price will be "normalized" back to around $8.88. TCC will continue its GO, and acceptance rate will start to rise...

If OUE proceeds with its offer, the 1st offer price will be around $9.10-$9.40. The sage continue...