Fraser & Neave (F & N)

[freedom]

whether the GO will continue highly depends on Kirin.

if Kirin accepts the GO, TCC would easily cross 50% and probably stop there.

[gwMoat]

whether the GO will continue highly depends on Kirin.

if Kirin accepts the GO, TCC would easily cross 50% and probably stop there.

correct me if I'm wrong, if TCC crosses the 50% mark the offer will then become "unconditional"?. i.e they have to accept the rest of the shares at the offer price no?

[freedom]

whether the GO will continue highly depends on Kirin.

if Kirin accepts the GO, TCC would easily cross 50% and probably stop there.

correct me if I'm wrong, if TCC crosses the 50% mark the offer will then become "unconditional"?. i.e they have to accept the rest of the shares at the offer price no?

I don't believe there are a lot of people accepting offer even after Kirin accepts the offer. Otherwise, people should be accepting the offer or sell at market price which is higher than offer price.

[CityFarmer]

whether the GO will continue highly depends on Kirin.

if Kirin accepts the GO, TCC would easily cross 50% and probably stop there.

correct me if I'm wrong, if TCC crosses the 50% mark the offer will then become "unconditional"?. i.e they have to accept the rest of the shares at the offer price no?

Once TCC become un-conditional, it can close the GO upon closing date mandated by Singapore Code on Take-overs and Mergers. All shareholder still able to accept offer by then.

I agree with freedom. After OCBC, the other substantial shareholders are Kirin (15%) and Prudential (8%).

Prudential is selling their stake gradually at higher price than $8.88, the latest update of holding is approx 6%, drop from 8% before offer announcement.

Will TCC able to convince minority shareholder to accept the offer? Or TCC is focusing on Kirin now?

Let see...

[gwMoat]

whether the GO will continue highly depends on Kirin.

if Kirin accepts the GO, TCC would easily cross 50% and probably stop there.

correct me if I'm wrong, if TCC crosses the 50% mark the offer will then become "unconditional"?. i.e they have to accept the rest of the shares at the offer price no?

Once TCC become un-conditional, it can close the GO upon closing date mandated by Singapore Code on Take-overs and Mergers. All shareholder still able to accept offer by then.

I agree with freedom. After OCBC, the other substantial shareholders are Kirin (15%) and Prudential (8%).

Prudential is selling their stake gradually at higher price than $8.88, the latest update of holding is approx 6%, drop from 8% before offer announcement.

Will TCC able to convince minority shareholder to accept the offer? Or TCC is focusing on Kirin now?

Let see...

ok, also awaiting the IFA reports, meanwhile hope for best outcome!

[CityFarmer]

The historical PE of F&N is around 14-15 with EPS of approx $0.46 before disposal. It translates to market price of $6.5-$7.0 per share.

After the disposal, EPS will drop to approx $0.39 without contribution from APB. Assuming the same PE, the market price is around $5.65

Base on the previous proposal, assuming that approx $4 billions will be distributed, it translates to $2.8 per share. The distribution is still TBC but with high certainty IMO

To sum-up, the F&N share is valued as $8.45, which is not too far from F&N BOD's $8.5 per share price to reduce its capital.

To conclude, the TCC offer of $8.88 seem reasonable. It seem rational for Kirin and other minority shareholder to accept the offer IMO.

[CityFarmer]

Yesterday TCC manage to acquire 0.58% in single day, thus the total holding increases to 32.44%

On the same day, Prudential continue to off-load @$8.89 for another 0.723%, reduces it holding to 5.25%

Base on transaction today, probably TCC manage to acquire more than 1%, will conform by tomorrow announcement.

[CityFarmer]

Yesterday TCC manage to acquire 0.58% in single day, thus the total holding increases to 32.44%

On the same day, Prudential continue to off-load @$8.89 for another 0.723%, reduces it holding to 5.25%

Base on transaction today, probably TCC manage to acquire more than 1%, will conform by tomorrow announcement.

Base on announcement today

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...1000F4108/$file/Dealings_Announcement_081012.pdf?openelement

TCC latest holding is 33.49%, with 1.04% acquired on 5th Oct (last Friday)

The acquisition is accelerating.

At the same time, Prudential continue to reduce it stake to 4.8%. One important note is part of it sold @ $8.88

[CityFarmer]

The NAV of F&N increases by $498 millions i.e. approx 7% of pre-dispoal NAV of $6843 millions.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...00080014E/$file/FNL_Revaluation_Surplus-8.10.12.pdf?openelement

Will it affect the acceptance of the TCC offer? IMO, it may reduce the incentive to accept, but the acceptance will continue...

[gwMoat]

RECEIPT OF OFFER FOR HOSPITALITY AND SERVICED RESIDENCE BUSINESS OF THE COMPANY.
The saga continues...

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...20080A217/$file/FNL-Third_Party_Asset_Offer_10.10.12.pdf?openelementhttp://