A summary of events from
Lim & Tan,
Heineken, which owns an effective 42% of APB, has offered $50 a share for F&N’s effective 40% stake (valuing it at $5.1 bln or a whopping $3.60 per F&N share),
to be accepted within 4 days time, July 27. (Asia Pacific Investments, co-owned by Heineken and F&N and formed more than 80 years ago, owns 64.82% of APB, while Heineken and F&N each owns a direct 7.3% and 9.5% respectively.)
If accepted, Heineken will launch a mandatory offer for the remaining shares. At $50, ASPB’s market cap would be $12.91 bln.
Aberdeen Asset, with a 1% stake in F&N, thinks $50 is a good price for APB (ie F&N should accept). Indeed, Financial Times noted that at this price, APB would be valued at a rich 19x EV-Ebitda, vs 11x for Heineken.
Fact is, Kindest Place (owned by son-in-law of Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, founder of SGXlisted Thai Beverage) has a deal to buy OCBC’s and Great Eastern’s combined 7.9% stake in APB at $45 a share. Also, Thai Bev has a deal to buy from OCBC / GE and Lee Rubber, a collective 22% stake in F&N at $8.88 a share,
to be completed within 90 days, and which is subject to approval of Thai Bev’s shareholders at an EGM.
While the situation is “fluid”, we would not rule out F&N rejecting Heineken’s attractive offer. Nor Khun Charoen rejecting Thai Bev’s offer to buy F&N shares from OCBC / GE at Thai Bev’s EGM (ie risk to OCBC / GE’s share price). F&N then becomes largely a property company with loads of cash, and interests in soft drinks, dairies and other foods, which is unlikely of interest to Charoen or for that matter Kirin Holdings with 14.9% of F&N.
In view of the above, HOLD may be more appropriate for now, although any surge in F&N’s share price on the back of expectation of a big payout, may also be a selling opportunity.
Homepage
PR Newswire
