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10-12-2012, 08:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2012, 08:19 PM by Curiousparty.)
Why only Sanlam pared down its holdings? Why didn't the rest of the fund houses sell off as well?
(10-12-2012, 08:02 PM)jzk Wrote: 19.655.000 shares sold AFTER 11-29-2012 announcement. Theoretically Sanlam could now have sold all its holdings. More likely situation, though, is that they still have a couple (3-7) of million shares left.
(28-11-2012, 05:59 PM)jzk Wrote: CESS announced today, that Sanlam sold it's position down to 19.020.000 shares on nov.22.2012.
During the time span of 16.8.-22.11.2012 24.967.000 where traded, thereof 17.691.000 where Sanlam's (71% of total volume).
Since the flagging notice 10.306.000 additional shares have been sold. Assuming the same relation, Sanlam would still have around twelve million shares left, floor estimate being around nine million.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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(10-12-2012, 08:17 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Why only Sanlam pared down its holdings? Why didn't the rest of the fund houses sell off as well?
Supposedly it was Sanlam, whose clients redeemed much enough money to spark this sort of forced selling. Sanlam's track record is rather lame and fee structure heavy. The other fund house has much more appealing history, so it's safe to assume they don't have that much client outflow.
Speaking of safe assumptions - trading activity today suggests strongly, that Sanlam is finally out of the table. They don't need to announce that separately, so this will be just an educated guess. No flagging announcements of ownership EXCEEDING 5% though by anyone. At least not so far.
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Can we assume that retail investors have picked up most of the sellings by Sanlam?
(11-12-2012, 05:45 PM)jzk Wrote: (10-12-2012, 08:17 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Why only Sanlam pared down its holdings? Why didn't the rest of the fund houses sell off as well?
Supposedly it was Sanlam, whose clients redeemed much enough money to spark this sort of forced selling. Sanlam's track record is rather lame and fee structure heavy. The other fund house has much more appealing history, so it's safe to assume they don't have that much client outflow.
Speaking of safe assumptions - trading activity today suggests strongly, that Sanlam is finally out of the table. They don't need to announce that separately, so this will be just an educated guess. No flagging announcements of ownership EXCEEDING 5% though by anyone. At least not so far.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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13-12-2012, 04:41 PM
(This post was last modified: 13-12-2012, 04:42 PM by Stockerman.)
Phoenix rising from ash!!!
From 1.5 cents to 5.3 cents (45 million shares done)
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54.228.000 shares were traded 08/162012 - 12/12/2012. That was the period referred to as "the dumping". During the dumping supposedly Sanlam sold all its' shares, also supposedly none of the other major owners sold a single share.
Today, the very day after the dumping ended, 52.135.000 shares (13,3% of the whole company) have been traded with a price some 40-50% over the weighted average price of the dumping.
My guess is, that a decoy (rather, a bunch of decoys) was assigned to buy anonymously everything Sanlam was selling. That way there was no need for ownership announcements, and that way the buyer had all the time in the world to wait for the poor little fund manager to do what his clients forced him to do. At this stage, as the dumping as we know it is over, the real buyer takes over the shares from decoy(s) at a formerly set premium over what was paid during the autumn.
Any other guesses? Let's see if we get an ownership announcement in near future...
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14-12-2012, 11:34 PM
(This post was last modified: 14-12-2012, 11:38 PM by Stockerman.)
Ended at 4.9 cents today - 16.8 mill lots done.
Note the massive debt on its books.
1. CB repayment at end of Dec 2012
2. DBS loan repayment [ this has been dragged on for far too long]
3. Massive trade receivables [ We have no idea whether how many % of these will go BAD!!]
Inventory + A/R + cash holdings is about 200 to 250mil RMB short of Debt !!!
How is company going to pull through when starch price is still so low?
Agreed. Each of these decoy holds just below the 5% mark...
Check out Foreland FabricTech.
This counter is purportedly backed by cash and has Zero debt.
Same Qingmei...(Cash and zero debt).
Happy Trading 
(13-12-2012, 05:50 PM)jzk Wrote: 54.228.000 shares were traded 08/162012 - 12/12/2012. That was the period referred to as "the dumping". During the dumping supposedly Sanlam sold all its' shares, also supposedly none of the other major owners sold a single share.
Today, the very day after the dumping ended, 52.135.000 shares (13,3% of the whole company) have been traded with a price some 40-50% over the weighted average price of the dumping.
My guess is, that a decoy (rather, a bunch of decoys) was assigned to buy anonymously everything Sanlam was selling. That way there was no need for ownership announcements, and that way the buyer had all the time in the world to wait for the poor little fund manager to do what his clients forced him to do. At this stage, as the dumping as we know it is over, the real buyer takes over the shares from decoy(s) at a formerly set premium over what was paid during the autumn.
Any other guesses? Let's see if we get an ownership announcement in near future...
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speculative buying seems to have abated by today. Ended at 4.4 cents; only 3.4mil shares done.
Afterall, fundamentally, this FY, company would probably still continue to register losses...hence upside should be limited...
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Does anyone know the price of ex-factory potato starch price in China now, the northeast region?
Tks.
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Previously, Essence price surged few hundred % in one day and more than 50mil shares transacted. How come it didnt get SGX query??
Some players must be playing up and down the market...
************
SINGAPORE - The Singapore Exchange on Friday asked developer Keppel Land to explain a surge in its share price.
Shares of Keppel Land, the property arm of Singapore oil rig giant Keppel Corp, were up around 3 per cent at S$4.11 around 0855 GMT. The stock had risen as much as 6.8 per cent earlier in the session. - REUTERS
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(21-12-2012, 05:40 PM)Stockerman Wrote: Does anyone know the price of ex-factory potato starch price in China now, the northeast region?
Tks. which part of northeast?
what yr price there? i check with my contact.
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