KWG Property (01813.HK)

[soros]

Update for Substantial shareholder - Kong Jianmin : ( Latest Disclosure reported in HKEX )

14 Jun 2018 : 1,962,655,652
13 Jun 2018 : 1,962,355,652 ( ex div date ).
12 Jun 2018 : 1,961,955,652
04 Jun 2018 : 1,959,555,652
01 Jun 2018 : 1,959,155,652
31 May2019 : 1,958,755,652
30 May2018 : 1,958,355,652
29 May2018 : 1,957,955,652
28 May2018 : 1,957,555,652
25 May2018 : 1,957,155,652
18 May2018 : 1,955,555,652
11 May2018 : 1.953,855,652
04 May2018 : 1,952,355,652
03 May2018 : 1,952,055,652
02 May2018 : 1,951,755,652

[bmann025]

Found another report googeling 'Future Land (1030.HK): Initiate at Buy: Powerful Engines Ignited'

[soros]

I am glad I sold my last board lot in 1813 shares before the ex-div date .

Future Land ( 01030.HK ) may be good for the next share to buy.

I found the company reported the sales for Jan-May 2018 (5 Months) reached RMB 66 Bil compared to RMB 40.8 Bil sales revenue in 2017.

[bmann025]

I was particularly interested in their peer comparison tables.

They project very low single digit PEs, large discounts to NAV and around 10% dividend yield for several companies till 2020, KWG and Powerlong among them.

KWG and Powerlong have the largest increase in this year's sales target (and big increases excpected by other analysts till 2020), yet Citi estimates their ROE on the lower side of peers. That is a space for surprise I like.

I am missing a comparison of debt, but I like that KWG and Powerlong's sales targets increases are much larger than their additions in land banks, hence potential to reduce debt.


I am a bit disappointed about the Chinese markets in general, reacting on the trade war dispute again like a banana republic. No leadership, just follow and amplify foreign input. There is no way the US can win that trade war, just read what Marc Faber has to say about it. Even JPM puts the impact on China only at around 0.1% of GDP (sentiment effect could be larger of course), hence I would expect the US to cave in with some face saving last minute solution.
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/a...atest-news

[bmann025]

Another report from DBS

https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/aics/te...lerate.xml#

[bmann025]

Bocom comment on regulatory actions in 30 major tier-1 and tier-2
cities in 2H18, in order to regulate the property market by curbing speculative
demand and non-compliant intermediaries/agencies.

http://researchreport.bocomgroup.com/mexp-180629e.pdf

[soros]

The chairman has taken a rest . His last buy was made on 14 Jun ( see post #101 ).

I bought some 1813 shares @ $9.80 yesterday.

[bmann025]

Hi Soros,

some brokers (Citi, DBS) already mentioned that sellout was overdone.

Tightening liquidity in my view is not necessarily bad, as it forces companies to take less risk and reduce debt. High debt to equity is an important reason for large discounts to NAV as seen for some companies. KWG or Powerlong with their full pipelines and strong cash flows may easily reduce their leverage by scaling back on land purchases. That would reduce future growth, but generates healthier growth.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201806/29...dfc56.html
http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-fin...ture-firms

More problematic is a possible reduction of demand, such as cutting into 'city revival schemes'. That would cause short/mid term deceleration, though again, deflating an unsustainable bubble will improve prospects in the long run.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/a...al-schemes

[bmann025]

That should be another record month:

'For June 2018, the pre-sales value of the Group and its joint ventures and associates
amounted to RMB6,808 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 106.9%.'
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...031938.pdf

Note that they wrote 'value of the Group and its joint ventures and associates' this time, while in previous months just 'the group'. Joint ventures and associates in pre-sale numbers may explain differences between pre-sales and revenue.

[bmann025]

Bocom: China Property

"Sales may slow in Jul-Aug despite strong June
...
We prefer fast runners and focus on cash collection."
http://researchreport.bocomgroup.com/mexp-180705e.pdf