Why it's so hard to invest in sg in 2017

[brattzz]

okay, just back from cny holidays!

1st read, MTI survey report of cos! old one lah...

https://www.mti.gov.sg/ResearchRoom/Site...R_3Q16.pdf

sectors. For the rest of the year, Singapore’s GDP growth is expected to remain modest. Sectors such as electronics, information & communications and “other services industries” are likely to continue to support growth, while the wholesale trade and finance & insurance sectors could continue to face external headwinds.

Against this backdrop, the growth outlook for the Singapore economy remains modest in 2017. The manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in performance on the back of sustained global demand for semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, although the marine & offshore engineering segment and firms supporting the global oil & gas industry are expected to continue to face weak demand conditions amidst low oil prices. 

Tourism-related sectors are likely to benefit from a boost in travel demand as the global economic outlook improves. At the same time, sectors such as information & communications and “other services industries” are likely to continue to support growth.

 On the other hand, externally-oriented services sectors such as finance & insurance and wholesale trade are expected to remain sluggish. 

Taking into account the above factors, and barring the full materialisation of downside risks, the Singapore economy is expected to grow at a modest pace of “1.0 to 3.0 per cent” in 2017.

[specuvestor]

CNY feedback seems bad with lower or no bonus plus even accountants get retrenched

The Singapore recession that I sensed started in 2H16 will likely full steam this year; just hope Trump won't make it a wreck

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-6497...#pid135145

If real rates continue to be negative while inflation rises, this should be negative bonds but equities will firm after an initial shock. That's my base case. But if fed raise real rates to counter stagflation then it's gonna be a tough global recession

[Porkbelly]

Once again, I must be reading the wrong news...
World growth predicted to be positive...??


Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015,
is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017.
The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual
than in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO),
especially in emerging market and developing economies.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/

Economists at HSBC on Wednesday raised their forecast for global growth
and inflation over the next two years based on robust manufacturing activity,
a resilient China and above all the fiscal boost expected to come in the United States.

It was the first time in nearly five years they have upped their growth and inflation
outlooks over a two-year horizon as 2017 gets underway and as investors prepare for
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump entering the White House.

Wed Jan 4 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global...SKBN14O12K

The US is expected to lead global growth higher over the next two years despite
the growing threat posed by protectionist policies, Moody’s Investors Service
has warned.

The rating agency predicted the US would be the fastest growing of the G7 leading
industrial countries in 2017 and 2018, with short-term growth boosted by
Donald Trump’s plans to cuts taxes and spend more on American infrastructure.
Mon Nov 14 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/business/201...nism-trump

[specuvestor]

Once again, I must be reading the wrong news...
World growth predicted to be positive...??


Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015,
is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017.
The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual
than in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO),
especially in emerging market and developing economies.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/

"Overall, forecasts for global growth have been revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for both 2016 and 2017. These revisions reflect to a substantial degree, but not exclusively, a weaker pickup in emerging economies than was forecast in October. In terms of the country composition, the revisions are largely accounted for by Brazil, where the recession caused by political uncertainty amid continued fallout from the Petrobras investigation is proving to be deeper and more protracted than previously expected; the Middle East, where prospects are hurt by lower oil prices; and the United States, where growth momentum is now expected to hold steady rather than gather further steam. Prospects for global trade growth have also been marked down by more than ½ percentage point for 2016 and 2017, reflecting developments in China as well as distressed economies." -WEO

The growth in 2017 is mainly forecasted to be from EM

China growth will be around 6% and US / Japan will likely chug along 1%. But the delta will be negative and declines in trade and economic activities will be negative Singapore

Depends who you believe will not be changing their views soon

(Bloomberg) --
Billionaire Ray Dalio’s honeymoon with President Donald Trump is looking to be short lived.

Dalio, who in November was bullish on the incoming president’s ability to stimulate the economy, is now saying he’s more concerned that the damaging effects of Trump’s populist policies may overwhelm the benefits of his pro-business agenda.

“We are now in a period of time when how this balance tilts will be more important to the economy, markets, and our well-beings than normally dominant drivers such as central bank policies,” Dalio and co-Chief Investment Officer Bob Prince said in Bridgewater Associates’ “Daily Observations” note to clients on Tuesday.

Dalio, who runs the world’s largest hedge fund, is souring on the new president after he banned visitors from seven mostly Muslim countries, igniting protests nationwide, and proposed a border tax on Mexican goods. Earlier this month, Dalio said it remained to be seen whether Trump is aggressive and thoughtful, or aggressive and reckless. Dalio and Prince said so far they haven’t seen much thoughtfulness in Trump’s policy moves.

--snip--

[Jacmar]

If there is one thing that we can learn from the rooster is that we need to dig and scratch for the food/info that we need. If we invest base on the mass feeding/info, then we will be slaughtered just like the chicken on the farm. It's so unpredictable even the pros are arguing among themselves. I am trying very hard to tune out the noise but it's not easy as the headlines just blast across the screen.

[opmi]

^^ Just turn off the screen.

[brattzz]

lolz!

I say, monitor the smart money.... they seem to be in action in places/sectors that we missed-out...

[specuvestor]

6 months have almost passed and global economy seems to be settling into godilocks pace: not too hot and not too cold. The fed will probably raise rates one more time before Yellen leaves and move to positive real rates

Inflation is better than I expected even as global central banks starting to signal normalisation. The weaker than expected USD is reversing the US interest rate expectation, and maybe even reflect the relative attractiveness of US assets

I'm happy to be wrong and content with Goldilocks economy, though some I know has lost their jobs. I hope it can last beyond 2017, and the stock markets can soft land. Bonds will likely have to contend with a flatter yield curve

CNY feedback seems bad with lower or no bonus plus even accountants get retrenched

The Singapore recession that I sensed started in 2H16 will likely full steam this year; just hope Trump won't make it a wreck

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-6497...#pid135145

If real rates continue to be negative while inflation rises, this should be negative bonds but equities will firm after an initial shock. That's my base case. But if fed raise real rates to counter stagflation then it's gonna be a tough global recession

[brattzz]

thanks specuvestor, fair assessment,

US going for safe and steady state... rest of world just behaves...!

[chialc88]

I'm not sure about you...
but when I glanced thru the results of SGX stocks, 
2015 and 2016 is very bad.

I definitely pray hard that 2017 is a good year.

From the Qtrly results of some stocks, 
I actually sees +ve results coming up.

Could be my bias, but thats what I see (my stocks).

Investing in SG in 2017 looks quite easy.
Especially if you look at vb.com posting.
Really good stocks were identified out front.

Money is not enough thou.