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Soros has been full-on bearish for some time already- eventually he'll be correct.
But yeah, he's one of the guys who seem to have timed the market really well (in the past) so it may pay to heed his words.
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20-01-2017, 09:35 AM
(This post was last modified: 20-01-2017, 09:52 AM by Big Toe.)
Even though we got a preview of what Trump policies are, we wont know them fully until he is in office.
Right now, it is a lot of hot air, especially trade policies. I do think that he would perform better as the general expectation of him isn't very high. Also he had the good fortune of coming in at the right time when labor market is finally near full employment(according to the Fed).
Presidents come and go and it's better to focus on the individual companies. Soros will be right, but my view that it wont be so soon as US is experiencing an up-cycle and the end is not near(yet). As for Europe, it maybe a train wreck in slow motion. It is extremely difficult for them to come to a consensus. UK will take a long time to leave the EU and the EU will take a long time to decide how to deal with UK. And while all the talks are going on, further cracks may show within the EU. EU has always been a dysfunctional family to begin with, just that it is more apparent now.
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Politics affect the business environment just as management affects the quality of the business
End of day it's the people. I would say Indian corporates succeeded in spite of the politics, rather than as a counter-example. If their politics becomes effective, they would be a force similar to China to be reckon with.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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21-01-2017, 12:43 AM
(This post was last modified: 21-01-2017, 12:44 AM by Big Toe.)
@ Specuinvestor, India is on a different planet altogether, there is absolutely no indication of any form of progress in Indian Politics. It's a very very long way off. So we can write off the chances of politics being effective there for a very long time.
@ blueKelah, I think we can all agree on Europe. As for USA, the consumer is feeling confident on the ground and is spending.
I know this because some people I know that are running retail(discretionary spending) gave positive feedback. Not a complete picture but it is giving a clue on consumer confidence.
It is a totally different case in sg, discretionary spending is weak. While there are bright spots the overall economy is flat at best.
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22-01-2017, 12:50 AM
(This post was last modified: 22-01-2017, 12:51 AM by specuvestor.)
I'm actually saying India politics is a deterrent. I don't think it will have a chance to improve significantly unless Modi gets another strong mandate. Their democracy is quite complex
If credit growth solves all problems then it should be easy for say Indonesia or other 3rd world countries to do the same, but it only translate to inflation. I think saying China's growth is due to credit expansion is too simplistic
Consumer spending is about 12% of Singapore GDP vs around 80% for developed nations with sizeable population. The impact is different. Trades and business activities affect our consumer confidence, whereas their consumer confidence affects trade and business activities
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)