Soros Says Markets to Slump With Trump, EU Faces Disintegration

[BlueKelah]

Soros has spoken, though he has lost the wager these past couple months and it is in his interest for markets to tank. Funny thing is Trump has been having meetings with BOTH the UK and French top ladies to work out deals in the past month, perhaps most are underestimating the businessman in him. If you can control the politics, you can control the economy and businesses. Trump will take control tonight. #exciting times

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...takes-over

• Billionaire investor says incoming U.S. president will fail
  
  
• U.K. premier won’t last long as nation prepares to leave EU
  

[slowandsteady]

Soros has been full-on bearish for some time already- eventually he'll be correct.

But yeah, he's one of the guys who seem to have timed the market really well (in the past) so it may pay to heed his words.

[Big Toe]

Even though we got a preview of what Trump policies are, we wont know them fully until he is in office.
Right now, it is a lot of hot air, especially trade policies. I do think that he would perform better as the general expectation of him isn't very high. Also he had the good fortune of coming in at the right time when labor market is finally near full employment(according to the Fed).

Presidents come and go and it's better to focus on the individual companies. Soros will be right, but my view that it wont be so soon as US is experiencing an up-cycle and the end is not near(yet). As for Europe, it maybe a train wreck in slow motion. It is extremely difficult for them to come to a consensus. UK will take a long time to leave the EU and the EU will take a long time to decide how to deal with UK. And while all the talks are going on, further cracks may show within the EU. EU has always been a dysfunctional family to begin with, just that it is more apparent now.

[specuvestor]

Politics affect the business environment just as management affects the quality of the business

End of day it's the people. I would say Indian corporates succeeded in spite of the politics, rather than as a counter-example. If their politics becomes effective, they would be a force similar to China to be reckon with.

[BlueKelah]

@specuvestor : Last I read, India is still having some problems working through their black money currency reforms. They will likely take a hit to GDP. China is only a force to be reckoned with due to their credit growth, otherwise their GDP and internal financial system won't be expanding so fast. Should india succeed in their politics, I do not see their banks able to create credit at such a massive scale as China has.

@Big Toe : Marine le pen seems to be gaining popularity recently and leading at polls now. France may want to leave EU too, especially if Trump does a good deal with UK

Soros did time the market well with gold so i think he made money in 2016.

So far 2017 just started let's see what happens to USA with Trump. Perhaps Soros has some good indicators that is making him bearish. Maybe he knows the real unemployment rate and general business sentiment in US.

[Big Toe]

@ Specuinvestor, India is on a different planet altogether, there is absolutely no indication of any form of progress in Indian Politics. It's a very very long way off. So we can write off the chances of politics being effective there for a very long time.

@ blueKelah, I think we can all agree on Europe. As for USA, the consumer is feeling confident on the ground and is spending.
I know this because some people I know that are running retail(discretionary spending) gave positive feedback. Not a complete picture but it is giving a clue on consumer confidence.

It is a totally different case in sg, discretionary spending is weak. While there are bright spots the overall economy is flat at best.

[specuvestor]

I'm actually saying India politics is a deterrent. I don't think it will have a chance to improve significantly unless Modi gets another strong mandate. Their democracy is quite complex

If credit growth solves all problems then it should be easy for say Indonesia or other 3rd world countries to do the same, but it only translate to inflation. I think saying China's growth is due to credit expansion is too simplistic

Consumer spending is about 12% of Singapore GDP vs around 80% for developed nations with sizeable population. The impact is different. Trades and business activities affect our consumer confidence, whereas their consumer confidence affects trade and business activities