Golden Energy and Resources

[valuebuddies]

to be honest, I am not sure how to buy the IDX stocks, but just saying that I do expect GEMS to give away large sum of dividends in the next 2 quarters.

[weijian]

Conclusion, is it still good time to buy GEAR now? Perhaps we wait until the half year result in August? Perhaps it's too late by then.

I looked back at my own record. The ones that made the most money, are the ones I held for the longest (and still holding). They also happen to to be the ones that I took time to deliberate and have lower resistance to "average up".

Those that I "average down", if they were not caught in some sort of poor general market sentiment, generally didn't turn out to be good investments. It turns out Mr Market was often more right than wrong.

It is becoming clear to me, that a good investment is not one that makes the most money in the shortest time, but one that maximizes its potential over the longest period of time. This long time period has 2 advantages for an OPMI - (1) frees up my time to do other things (you could imagine the time taken to investigate one stock that last 10 years vs 5 stocks that last 2 years each), (2) proves that its advantage is durable over a period of time.

[setan]

Conclusion, is it still good time to buy GEAR now? Perhaps we wait until the half year result in August? Perhaps it's too late by then.

I looked back at my own record. The ones that made the most money, are the ones I held for the longest (and still holding). They also happen to to be the ones that I took time to deliberate and have lower resistance to "average up".

Those that I "average down", if they were not caught in some sort of poor general market sentiment, generally didn't turn out to be good investments. It turns out Mr Market was often more right than wrong.

It is becoming clear to me, that a good investment is not one that makes the most money in the shortest time, but one that maximizes its potential over the longest period of time. This long time period has 2 advantages for an OPMI - (1) frees up my time to do other things (you could imagine the time taken to investigate one stock that last 10 years vs 5 stocks that last 2 years each), (2) proves that its advantage is durable over a period of time.

Hi WeiJian,

Based on my own experience, I concur with your approach totally. Thanks for highlighting for deliberation.

[valuebuddies]

Hi Weijian,

Your comment is logical, I do have some bluechips which I managed to pick up small positions around October 2020 and they have been doing quite well, with the exception of CDG. I also have positions in some reputable companies in (once) promising industries for several years, some of them are doing ok, some of them are still suffering from the pandemic impacts.

For those closed-eye buy and hold bluechips, obviously I don't really care much about what happens day to day as long as I am getting my good dividend every years. And because I don't check on it every now and then, naturally I don't put in too much of capital. So I do care and pay much more attention to my core positions, everybody does I suppose.

In general, I do agree that trading in and out often causes one to miss the big run in longterm, but with some exception, eg. if you manage to enter at the beginning of cycle and exit when it peaks, or if you enter when it is undervalued and exit when fully valued. One notable example is Samudera, which VB Squirrel started the call a year ago when it was around 32c and is up more than 200% now.

For GEAR, please dont get me wrong, I am not calling one to buy it now and sell it in August. I am not expecting a target price of says 80c by August, but honestly I am looking for 1.50 to 2.00 in the coming years, and I am expecting 15c to 20c dividends for each year to come.

Anyway, points noted.

[desmondxyz]

Hi Weijian,

Your comment is logical, I do have some bluechips which I managed to pick up small positions around October 2020 and they have been doing quite well, with the exception of CDG. I also have positions in some reputable companies in (once) promising industries for several years, some of them are doing ok, some of them are still suffering from the pandemic impacts.

For those closed-eye buy and hold bluechips, obviously I don't really care much about what happens day to day as long as I am getting my good dividend every years. And because I don't check on it every now and then, naturally I don't put in too much of capital. So I do care and pay much more attention to my core positions, everybody does I suppose.

In general, I do agree that trading in and out often causes one to miss the big run in longterm, but with some exception, eg. if you manage to enter at the beginning of cycle and exit when it peaks, or if you enter when it is undervalued and exit when fully valued. One notable example is Samudera, which VB Squirrel started the call a year ago when it was around 32c and is up more than 200% now.

For GEAR, please dont get me wrong, I am not calling one to buy it now and sell it in August. I am not expecting a target price of says 80c by August, but honestly I am looking for 1.50 to 2.00 in the coming years, and I am expecting 15c to 20c dividends for each year to come.

Anyway, points noted.

Sorry to pour some cold water....With Widjaja family in charge, don't dream of 15cts to 20cts dividend. You should thank God if u get 2ct....

[valuebuddies]

I can't decide if you don't know the company well, or you don't know the family well, or that you don't know the structure well. Anyway thank you for your valuable input.

[desmondxyz]

I can't decide if you don't know the company well, or you don't know the family well, or that you don't know the structure well. Anyway thank you for your valuable input.

Well, company is fundamentally good but Widjaja family is holding ~ 95% of the shares, no doubt they will reward themselves with fat salary and bonus, but minority shareholders will suffer as Widjaja don't really bother. They can do whatever they want with 95% voting right. 

Maybe u can enlighten us otherwise?

[valuebuddies]

Look at GEMS

[Ben]

It is interesting to note the the Widjaja family is considering a possible acquisition of the company when the shares price is at an all-time high. With more than 77% control of the company at the moment, the GO, if go ahead, has a good chance of success if the offer price is attractive. Assuming a 20% premium, the offer price will exceed $1.

At this price, the Widjaja family still see value in taking the company private. Does that mean the extra ordinary profits we saw in 1H is going to be even better and sustainable for the foreseeable future?

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/20221010%...eID=733822

[LionFlyer]

The revenues of this company tracks coal prices For the past 6 months, coal prices were hovering above 300 USD so like sampan in high tide, their revenue will rise.

As for the transaction with the family, honestly I am not so optimistic that they would give a fair value, given their current stakes. But this is just an opinion