Oceanus Group

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#21
Published November 19, 2011

Oceanus hopes to be profitable again in 2013
Group aims for bigger farm yields and lower production costs, and also plans to grow sea cucumbers


By LYNETTE KHOO


OCEANUS Group hopes to return to profitability in 2013 by raising farm yields, lowering production costs and growing sea cucumbers for the first time.

But the largest land-based abalone producer is also faced with the daunting task of verifying its abalone numbers after millions of them died mysteriously.

Its existing stock is contained in over 30,000 tanks at 50 farms spanning two provinces, Fujian and Guangdong, in China.

Group executive chairman Ng Cher Yew said he has sent seven to eight people from the finance team in Singapore to take a stock-take of the abalones.

'The actual counting of abalones will take two to three weeks,' he said yesterday. This has to be done with the help of the Chinese staff on the farms.

As an indication of how vast the job is, Oceanus' auditors Deloitte & Touche typically require more than 20 people spending three weeks to cover a 5 per cent sample of the total abalone population, Dr Ng added.

The group has also sent security personnel to supervise the farms and new mortality of abalones from now has to be matched by new empty shells.

Dr Ng declined to speculate how the 42 million units of abalone died in the third quarter, preferring to explain how he is steering the group forward.

'We want to strongly focus on sales as a breeding company,' Dr Ng said. The current problem is the company is not harvesting the abalones at the right time, he added.

To improve its cash cycle, Oceanus will sell its existing abalone stock in each year to gain regular cash flows to acquire high-quality brood stock and to grow sea cucumbers in February next year.

The move into growing sea cucumbers takes advantage of the breeding cycle of abalones as the breeding period of sea cucumbers coincides with the lull period of breeding abalones.

Dr Ng said the group will also be 'more scientific' in deciding which abalones to sell, by off-loading its juvenile stocks in January and holding back the faster-growing ones for eventual sale at a higher price.

While the existing abalone stock still needs to be verified, some 500 tonnes of abalones that are three to four years old are expected to be sold early next year. This is expected to generate cash of 150 million yuan (S$30.5 million) to 200 million yuan by the first half of next year.

Oceanus is also looking at lowering the cost of running the farms from more than 200 million yuan per year to 100 million yuan by raising breeding density for its tanks.

Dr Ng noted that the tanks are currently breeding abalones at low densities, an area he hopes to address. By working with good abalone breeders in China through profit sharing, yields can be improved and the number of tanks required for abalone breeding can be reduced to 10,000, down from over 30,000 currently, he said.

The excess tanks could be used for sea cucumbers or be rented out. The lowest annual rental rate in China for tanks, according to Dr Ng, is about 2,000 yuan per tank.

Given these plans, the group is confident of returning in the black in 2013.

Oceanus had suffered a net loss of 725 million yuan for the third quarter ended Sept 30, compared to a net profit of 68.6 million yuan a year ago. This was due to a fair value loss of 642.6 million yuan on biological assets as some 42 million abalones died.

Dr Ng called the mortality rate as 'just not acceptable' as most of the abalones that died were larger-sized ones. The mortality rate of abalones typically reduces as they mature.

The group has formed a working committee consisting of board members and key finance staff since the fourth quarter of last year to study the reasons behind the increased mortality of abalones.

Chief executive officer Yu De Hua agreed to step down as CEO and legal representative of the Chinese subsidiaries and the handover is expected to complete soon.

Dr Ng said he would like to have two different persons for the role of the legal representative and that of the CEO.

BT
_______________________

My Thots.....

I thot this is a better article as the reporter have made some shrewd observations.

1) "Deloitte & Touche typically require more than 20 people spending three weeks to cover a 5 per cent sample of the total abalone population"----Does that mean that previous stock take for the valuations was based on a 5% sample size and extrapolated?
2)"New mortality of abalones "from now" has to be matched by new empty shells"----that sounds like 100% counting from now===> imply previously NOT?
3)"While the existing abalone stock still needs to be verified, some 500 tonnes of abalones that are three to four years old are expected to be sold early next year. This is expected to generate cash of 150 million yuan (S$30.5 million) to 200 million yuan by the first half of next year"------ Puzzle is, if they cannot verify existing stock, how can they make projections about the future?
4) " the tanks are currently breeding abalones at low densities, an area he hopes to address. By working with good abalone breeders in China through profit sharing, yields can be improved and the number of tanks required for abalone breeding can be reduced to 10,000, down from over 30,000 currently"---- the implication is that the missing abalones are NOT due to death by overcrowding since Dr Ng thinks that the tanks are at low densities. That is baffling, high mortality of biologicals are either due to toxicity, crowding (lack of space and pollution by excrement can reduce oxygen levels in the water) or wrong feed/feeding. Other factors like temperatures of water will only influence growth rates; not cause high mortalities.
5) "The excess tanks could be used for sea cucumbers or be rented out. The lowest annual rental rate in China for tanks, according to Dr Ng, is about 2,000 yuan per tank."----- Wow, at 2000 RMB/tank x 20,000 tanks, Oceanus can earn 40m RMB/yr, just renting out the tanks!!! Why bother with rearing abalone, sea cucumber or even lobsters which have long lo--ng cash conversion cycles and high mortalities as a risk?
6) "Dr Ng called the mortality rate as 'just not acceptable' as most of the abalones that died were larger-sized ones. The mortality rate of abalones typically reduces as they mature."----- To grow to adult size (i.e. larger ones), meant that the abalones has adapted well to the water conditions and if so why would an adapted abalone die suddenly? Obviously, the crux of the problem is not with the rearing operations or aquaculture methodology but more likely with the stock taking!!
7)"Given these plans, the group is confident of returning in the black in 2013."----- lets see what has been promised or tried so far; from renting out the tanks, to rearing sea cucumbers, to restaurant chain biz, to dried abalones, to lobster aquaculture, to KKR investing, to TDR listing----- Dr Ng seems a very well connected and most enterprising chap!!!

I normally do not comment on bizs I am not vested in and that I cannot understand; but I thot MW should not miss out on this good article by Lynette Khoo in the BT.

It certainly piqued my interest on Oceanus!!
My1cG (My 1c Gibberish)
DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
DNAITB (Definitely Not An Invitation To Buy)
http://qiaofengsmusings.blogspot.com/
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#22
The reported some 42.0m larger-sized abalones that died and were lost in 3Q - which resulted in Oceanus taking a fair value loss of RMB642.6m (equivalent to approx. $130.0m) in 3Q - is just too difficult to believe and therefore not acceptable. If the earlier stock count and valuation of the abalones inventory in the tanks/farms were accurate, the latest loss appears even more questionable, bearing in mind CNY - therefore a surge in demand for abalones - is just round the corner.

We should not forget Dr Ng has been involved and weaving the growth story of Oceanus - which is very much a concept stock! - since Day 1.
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#23
How much does Deloitte & Touche pay for counting abalones? I hope to be considered favourably for the 3-week paid trip to Fujian and Guangdong . I am sure a lot of retirees are interested too. Please don't use Accountancy degree as a prerequisite to exclude us Smile
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#24
(20-11-2011, 01:27 PM)wsreader Wrote: How much does Deloitte & Touche pay for counting abalones? I hope to be considered favourably for the 3-week paid trip to Fujian and Guangdong . I am sure a lot of retirees are interested too. Please don't use Accountancy degree as a prerequisite to exclude us Smile

If fraud is involved, I don't think you want to be making any trip to an Abalone farm out in the open sea or some 'ulu' location in China and surrounded by people who may not be very friendly if you happen to uncover something fishy! Big Grin

Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
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#25
This reminds me of investing in "Ostrich Farm"; which at one time was the hype then. Not mean to offense anyone. My apology.
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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#26
(20-11-2011, 01:27 PM)wsreader Wrote: How much does Deloitte & Touche pay for counting abalones? I hope to be considered favourably for the 3-week paid trip to Fujian and Guangdong . I am sure a lot of retirees are interested too. Please don't use Accountancy degree as a prerequisite to exclude us Smile
which part of guangdong is that?

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#27
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My+Money...70422.html

Quote:Q: And your best investment?

It is my investment in Oceanus Group. In 2006, I pumped in my savings of

$5 million to turn the firm around and make it the largest abalone producer in the world. Last year, the firm achieved a net profit of 193.5 million yuan

(S$40 million) on a turnover of 319 million yuan. I have a 40 per cent share in Oceanus' market capitalisation of some $650 million, so my share works out to about $260 million.

Oceanus total no. of share = 2,016,550,902.(assuming the 338million warrants will not be converted...and who would want to convert with an exercise price of 15cts..)
Current share price = 0.07.
Market capitalisation = S$141 million.

If Dr Ng's shareholdings remains the same, his share is worth only $56 million..

But... with convertible loan repayment coming on... his $56 million may not worth much..

The convertible loan are repayable on the later of July 23, 2012.
338 millions of warrant at 15cts with 68% redemption premium....


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#28
didnt know he is a government colombo scholar
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#29
There are important clues to the mystery here.

Quote:Group executive chairman Ng Cher Yew said he has sent seven to eight people from the finance team in Singapore to take a stock-take of the abalones.

'The actual counting of abalones will take two to three weeks,' he said yesterday. This has to be done with the help of the Chinese staff on the farms.

As an indication of how vast the job is, Oceanus' auditors Deloitte & Touche typically require more than 20 people spending three weeks to cover a 5 per cent sample of the total abalone population, Dr Ng added.

Deloitte needs more than 20 people spending 3 weeks to count a 5% sample.

This means the same team would spend 60 weeks to do a 100% count i.e. more than 1 year. So Oceanus has probably never done a 100% check on its abalone population, which means they have no way of proving that the missing abalones were ever there to start with.

Oceanus is sending 7-8 finance staff to count the abalones with the help of the Chinese staff over 2-3 weeks.

The RTO circular indicates there were 178 production staff at 30 Sep 2007. At 31 Dec 2008 there were 20,500 tanks. Now we have 30,123 tanks, so let's assume they have 50% more production staff i.e. 270 staff.

So let's say we have 280 people available to count abalones. This is 14x the number that Deloitte used. So with 3 weeks, assuming equivalent productivity, they can count 14 x 5% = 70% of the population. Still not good enough.

Realistically speaking, either they will not do a 100% count in 3 weeks, or it will actually take 5-6 weeks for a 100% count.

Quote:The group has also sent security personnel to supervise the farms and new mortality of abalones from now has to be matched by new empty shells.

This means the "dead" abalones have simply gone missing. If they died the carcasses would be available as proof - and you would be able to smell 42m dead large abalones from quite a distance away I think. If the carcasses were dumped, whether on land or at sea, they should be easy to find - 42m large abalone shells is quite a big pile.

Quote:Dr Ng declined to speculate how the 42 million units of abalone died in the third quarter, preferring to explain how he is steering the group forward.

He is deliberately sidestepping the issue. The MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE now is to find out how/why 42m large abalones vanished. Because if the reason is not found and addressed, more abalones will go missing in future.

Quote:The current problem is the company is not harvesting the abalones at the right time, he added.

No, the problem is the company never kept a proper count of its abalones.

Quote:The group has formed a working committee consisting of board members and key finance staff since the fourth quarter of last year to study the reasons behind the increased mortality of abalones.

Why are they involving finance staff?

They need to look at operations:

How did they ensure that abalones they bought were still there?
How did they match the stock on hand with reported mortalities?

This is an operations failure, nothing to do with finance at all.
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#30
(20-11-2011, 07:12 PM)d.o.g. Wrote: He is deliberately sidestepping the issue. The MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE now is to find out how/why 42m large abalones vanished. Because if the reason is not found and addressed, more abalones will go missing in future.
This is an operations failure, nothing to do with finance at all.
Correct. The finance team going there is likely doing another statistical sampling and then extrapolate; NOT 100% counting.
The 42m m large abalones may never had been there!!
If so, alluding to better security (aka operations), may be sidetracking of the core issue of stock taking and basing the accounts and Financial Statements on the audited stock take.

Sounds like Enid Blyton's "Famous Seven unravel the mystery of the Missing Abalones".

Shows Corporate Governance issues ?
Sample Check: Any IDs same as with China Sky?
My1cG (My 1c Gibberish)
DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
DNAITB (Definitely Not An Invitation To Buy)
http://qiaofengsmusings.blogspot.com/
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