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29-01-2016, 08:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 29-01-2016, 08:29 PM by CityFarmer.)
(29-01-2016, 06:30 PM)owq Wrote: (29-01-2016, 03:32 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Comparing apple to apple.
ROE wise, Keppel (14%) is much worst than M1 (43%). Historical earning yield wise, Keppel (PE 6) is better than M1 (12), but forward earning yield is telling different story. Furthermore, we should consider cash earning yield. Quality of earning for M1 is 1.3, while Keppel is negative.
(not vested)
That is from outside investor point of view. From Keppel point of view, holding M1 only gives them 8% earnings yield (being conservative here and assuming no growth). Also have to consider their cost of capital. It is a drag on their ROE, if they can find better investments.
Hope I didn't make any wrong assumptions. Still learning about valuation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Isn't Keppel is another "outside" investor as we are? 
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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(29-01-2016, 08:28 PM)DuH! CityFarmer Wrote: (29-01-2016, 06:30 PM)owq Wrote: (29-01-2016, 03:32 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Comparing apple to apple.
ROE wise, Keppel (14%) is much worst than M1 (43%). Historical earning yield wise, Keppel (PE 6) is better than M1 (12), but forward earning yield is telling different story. Furthermore, we should consider cash earning yield. Quality of earning for M1 is 1.3, while Keppel is negative.
(not vested)
That is from outside investor point of view. From Keppel point of view, holding M1 only gives them 8% earnings yield (being conservative here and assuming no growth). Also have to consider their cost of capital. It is a drag on their ROE, if they can find better investments.
Hope I didn't make any wrong assumptions. Still learning about valuation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Isn't Keppel is another "outside" investor as we are?
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KEPPEL Corp has been very strong national asset that I am proud off. They are the biggest name in this region in rig building and the third largest conglomerate dealing with oil rigs.
I chose Keppel as an investment because they are going to be around long after we all die. This company will outlive even our great grand children.
Until then this company is providing us with tons of dividends.
At the present price, it's great to just average down. It's trading below its NAV. The company is trading at 5 times its earnings.
This isn't even the time to talk about selling. There was a time when it was profitable to sell....and that was back in 2014.
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Its good to note that in the 1970s (the last oil rig building peak), the major oil rig builders were from Jap/US. Fast forward 30years, and the major rig builders (2004-2012) are the SG yards. I do NOT think THIS TIME will be DIFFERENT. Keppel will survive, but in what form?
There are no doubts that the 'Keppel' namesake will live on longer than all of us here. I think folks sometimes mistake survivability with profitability. A company can survive but does not provide profitability for its shareholders - Both are not the same ting.
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(01-02-2016, 11:29 AM)weijian Wrote: Its good to note that in the 1970s (the last oil rig building peak), the major oil rig builders were from Jap/US. Fast forward 30years, and the major rig builders (2004-2012) are the SG yards. I do NOT think THIS TIME will be DIFFERENT. Keppel will survive, but in what form?
There are no doubts that the 'Keppel' namesake will live on longer than all of us here. I think folks sometimes mistake survivability with profitability. A company can survive but does not provide profitability for its shareholders - Both are not the same ting.
you're right WJ.
Remember NOL? They are still around...
I bet a lot of people thought NOL was a crown jewel and invested quite a bit of money into it when it was trading below NAV... *cough* *cough*
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On 17-Feb2016: Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (AAMAL) sold via open mkt 3,355,800 Shares for s$17,291,430 (wted ave $5.1527 each)
now its LEFT with Deem interests of 89.1956m shrs (4.9248%)
and AAMAL now Ceasing to be a Substantial Shareholder in Keppel Corp
We may also see AberdeenPLC dropping below the 5% level in near future... if AAMAL sell another 10m shrs or so.
Aberdeen sellings are probably the reasons why recent KepCorp's price rebound, been more muted compared with that of SemCorp/SemMarine,
and probably aslo explains the greater price weakness among some other "Aberdeen's related" stocks eg. Citydev, Venture, Yanlord, BukitSem
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...0Final.pdf
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(19-02-2016, 09:21 AM)Vseeker Wrote: On 17-Feb2016: Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (AAMAL) sold via open mkt 3,355,800 Shares for s$17,291,430 (wted ave $5.1527 each)
now its LEFT with Deem interests of 89.1956m shrs (4.9248%)
and AAMAL now Ceasing to be a Substantial Shareholder in Keppel Corp
We may also see AberdeenPLC dropping below the 5% level in near future... if AAMAL sell another 10m shrs or so.
Aberdeen sellings are probably the reasons why recent KepCorp's price rebound, been more muted compared with that of SemCorp/SemMarine,
and probably aslo explains the greater price weakness among some other "Aberdeen's related" stocks eg. Citydev, Venture, Yanlord, BukitSem
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...0Final.pdf "Aberdeen sellings are probably the reasons why recent KepCorp's price rebound..."
Why would selling a large stake lead to a rebound? Shouldn't it be the other way round?
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[/quote]
"Aberdeen sellings are probably the reasons why recent KepCorp's price rebound..."
Why would selling a large stake lead to a rebound? Shouldn't it be the other way round?
[/quote]
Haha quoted out of context.. if u continue the quote, he was actually saying Keppel's rebound is muted relative to the Sembs i.e. Aberdeen's selling is the reason why Keppel didnt rebound as much as it should have.
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"Aberdeen sellings are probably the reasons why recent KepCorp's price rebound..."
Why would selling a large stake lead to a rebound? Shouldn't it be the other way round?
[/quote]
Haha quoted out of context.. if u continue the quote, he was actually saying Keppel's rebound is muted relative to the Sembs i.e. Aberdeen's selling is the reason why Keppel didnt rebound as much as it should have.
[/quote]
Oh yes. I see.
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Are shareholdings of AAMAL and AberdeenPLC related and under deemed interest ? Thought they were separate entities ?
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