AIMS AMP Industrial REIT

[a74henry]

AIMS AMP will be starting its AEI on its Defu property soon. AEI could imply a temporary drop in DPU which could be offset by increased earnings from its other property that has completed its AEI.

(Vested)

[Dividend Warrior]

Phase 2 of 20 Gul Way has achieved TOP.

[Dividend Warrior]

AIMS AMP Capital announced that it has entered into a conditional development agreement with logistics firm CWT Ltd, which would see it add 496,944 sq ft to 20 Gul Way via Phase 2 Extension and Phase Three.

The extension works, which will take an estimated development period of 17 months, are targeted for completion by Dec 2014. Under the agreement, CWT will develop the extension and upon its completion, lease the ground floor of the new space for a period of five years and two months, and levels two to five for 32 months, at an annual rent escalation of 2%.

In announcing this project, AIMS AMP Capital also indicated that the total development cost will be funded by proceeds from the SGD110m it raised via a recent placement of 68.8m units at SGD1.60 each in April.

[Nick]

AIMS AMP Capital announced that it has entered into a conditional development agreement with logistics firm CWT Ltd, which would see it add 496,944 sq ft to 20 Gul Way via Phase 2 Extension and Phase Three.

The extension works, which will take an estimated development period of 17 months, are targeted for completion by Dec 2014. Under the agreement, CWT will develop the extension and upon its completion, lease the ground floor of the new space for a period of five years and two months, and levels two to five for 32 months, at an annual rent escalation of 2%.

In announcing this project, AIMS AMP Capital also indicated that the total development cost will be funded by proceeds from the SGD110m it raised via a recent placement of 68.8m units at SGD1.60 each in April.

What is the estimated DPU and gearing post completion of the 3 development projects taking into account the recent placement ? Thanks.

[Dividend Warrior]

Projected DPU FY2016: 13.3 cents

Gearing is around 34%

[yeokiwi]

Total share before placement 449.4 million
No. of placement share = 68.75 million
Total share after placement = 517.75 million

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/A...669338.pdf

based on the above pdf,
Net property income yield 8.17% (based on development cost)
Development cost = $77.15 million

Net property income = $6.3 million

Additional dividend per share = 1.2cts

Full year DPU of AIMS from 01/04/2012 to 31 March 2013 = 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.58 + 3.14 = 10.72cts

Projected DPU based on latest full year DPU = 10.72+1.2 = 11.92cts???

Total asset = 1,056.248
Total liability = 390.912
additional asset increase from new development = 89.40 million
leftover $$$ from placement = 32.85 million
Gearing = 33.12%

[Dividend Warrior]

Total share before placement 449.4 million
No. of placement share = 68.75 million
Total share after placement = 517.75 million

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/A...669338.pdf

based on the above pdf,
Net property income yield 8.17% (based on development cost)
Development cost = $77.15 million

Net property income = $6.3 million

Additional dividend per share = 1.2cts

Full year DPU of AIMS from 01/04/2012 to 31 March 2013 = 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.58 + 3.14 = 10.72cts

Projected DPU based on latest full year DPU = 10.72+1.2 = 11.92cts???

Total asset = 1,056.248
Total liability = 390.912
additional asset increase from new development = 89.40 million
leftover $$$ from placement = 32.85 million
Gearing = 33.12%

The $6.3 million is from Phase 2E and Phase 3.

(Based on the same pdf) I think we also need to add the net property income of $16.3 million from Phase 1 and Phase 2. That should be another 2.4 cents additional DPU.

So, total DPU should be around 13.3 cents in 2015. Projected though.

[KopiKat]

Total share before placement 449.4 million
No. of placement share = 68.75 million
Total share after placement = 517.75 million

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/A...669338.pdf

based on the above pdf,
Net property income yield 8.17% (based on development cost)
Development cost = $77.15 million

Net property income = $6.3 million

Additional dividend per share = 1.2cts

Full year DPU of AIMS from 01/04/2012 to 31 March 2013 = 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.58 + 3.14 = 10.72cts

Projected DPU based on latest full year DPU = 10.72+1.2 = 11.92cts???

Total asset = 1,056.248
Total liability = 390.912
additional asset increase from new development = 89.40 million
leftover $$$ from placement = 32.85 million
Gearing = 33.12%

A couple of points to consider in your DPU estimate,

1. Q4 (Mar) DPU = 3.14ct incl. 0.3ct from Capital Gain ie. would be 2.84ct if we exclude this non-recurring component.
ie FY13 DPU = 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.58 + 2.84 = 10.42ct

2. The FY13 DPU is based on no. of units in issue before the placement. This will be diluted by the additional ~15%+ new units placed out, when doing the FY14 projected DPU.
ie. Diluted FY13 DPU = 10.42ct / 1.15 = 9.15ct

Now, we add in your estimated Additional DPU = 1.2ct, we get,

Projected FY14 DPU = 9.15 + 1.2 = 10.35ct

or if we were to be less conservative and used the latest Q413 (Mar) DPU = 2.84ct, then,

Projected FY14 DPU = 4*2.84/1.15 + 1.2 = 11.08ct

PS. From the link you posted, there's an estimate of Additional DPU = 0.7ct assuming it's being 100% funded by debt and using pre-placement no. of units as the base.

[yeokiwi]

KopiKat Sir, I like your quantitative analysis.
I missed out normalizing the full year DPU.

The 0.7cts DPU is not applicable since the entire development is funded using the fund raised from placement exercise.
Noted that there is some leftover of $33 million cash from placement which is about 30% more than what they required(lousy estimation??).
Quite a cunning move to boost the DPU by using it to return a bit of capital every quarter or annually.

Nowadays, financial engineering is everywhere.

[Drizzt]

perhaps Dividend Warrior can show his 13.3 cents calculation. he seem to have factored in much more value than what kopikat and yeokiwi have come up with.

the only delta difference is this new phase isn't it? so why is there such a vast difference?

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before placement: 449
placement: 68
outstanding shares: 517

Q4 FY 13 without capital gain is 2.84 cents => 0.0284*4*449 => 51 mil
additional DPU 0.7 DPU => 0.007*517 => 3.6 mil

51+3.6 = 54.6 mil

54.6/517 = 10.5 cents per share

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note: i believe my calculation missed out Defu lane redevelopment. so it will be higher. but 13 cents? that looks too attractive.