Obvious & not so obvious signs of an economic slowdon

[Nebula]

number of peers being retrenched or have a fear of being retrenched is a good indicator. it can also be industry specific which gives an indication of the future outlook of the managers in the industry.

poorer revenue showing in companies is also a tell tale sign.

[brattzz]

https://www.mti.gov.sg/ResearchRoom/Pages/default.aspx

mti charts are easier?

[Life is a game]

sales people treat u better than any time of your life.

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk

[jjlim84]

i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life

[newborn1000]

I would say that the drop in traffic on this forum (very few new posts appearing on the main page) is a leading indicator for the market and broader economy

VB activities, serve as one of the useful indicators? I reckon, it is more of a coincidence. Have other forums been behaving the same? 

Perhaps lesser newcomers........

[Bibi]

i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life

Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?

[jjlim84]

i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life

Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?

no lar...neither retired nor cash rich
u ask the vegetable auntie in market what is recession, she probably will be unfazed by it...still sells vegetables everyday because ppl still eat them, still have proper meals and have a home...if you live beyond your means, then only I guess you will feel the impact

[Bibi]

i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life

Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?

no lar...neither retired nor cash rich
u ask the vegetable auntie in market what is recession, she probably will be unfazed by it...still sells vegetables everyday because ppl still eat them, still have proper meals and have a home...if you live beyond your means, then only I guess you will feel the impact

Thats what i meant. The vegi auntie business is recession proof. You ask auntie selling fruit juice or western cuisine I bet she will tell u business slow down. If one's business or job is not recession proof, no matter how prudent one is, during a financial CRISIS (means very serious type), one will be affected. We have seen CPF cuts, salary cuts or worse, job losses. If one is in finance sector, even if he is prudent, he will have to cut his spendings further when he gets retrench.

[jjlim84]

i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life

Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?

no lar...neither retired nor cash rich
u ask the vegetable auntie in market what is recession, she probably will be unfazed by it...still sells vegetables everyday because ppl still eat them, still have proper meals and have a home...if you live beyond your means, then only I guess you will feel the impact

Thats what i meant. The vegi auntie business is recession proof. You ask auntie selling fruit juice or western cuisine I bet she will tell u business slow down. If one's business or job is not recession proof, no matter how prudent one is, during a financial CRISIS (means very serious type), one will be affected. We have seen CPF cuts, salary cuts or worse, job losses. If one is in finance sector, even if he is prudent, he will have to cut his spendings further when he gets retrench.

to me, job loss or retrenched means find another job, it is also a good time to reflect if your job skill is creating value...Salary cut, CPF cuts, as long if spending is sustainable and within means, life goes on

just a view, of course 'impactful to life' is subjective to everyone's different opinions

[vesfreq]

My take.

There are some pretty intuitive indicators, like those from the MAS Financial Stability review.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/Regulations-and-Fi...-2015.aspx

Some of those which I find meaningful are:
1. The corporate debt to GDP ratio. Good sense check on whether debt is value adding or excessive to the borrowers in general.
2. Mortgage growth rates and property price index. This gives a shows whether the rate of mortgage rate growth is reasonably aligned with prices. In a way if mortgage grows much faster than price, it is a worrying sign and hint of potential defaults coming up. Then again, if mortgage growth stagnates and prices sinking, its worrying too because any defaults means that the banks cant get back as much. Different views on this ratio.
3. The interest to cover ratio is quite useful for a "feel" of the default risk.
Have fun. Regards.