Obvious & not so obvious signs of an economic slowdon

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#11
number of peers being retrenched or have a fear of being retrenched is a good indicator. it can also be industry specific which gives an indication of the future outlook of the managers in the industry.

poorer revenue showing in companies is also a tell tale sign.
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#12
https://www.mti.gov.sg/ResearchRoom/Pages/default.aspx

mti charts are easier? Big Grin
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR! 
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL! 
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#13
sales people treat u better than any time of your life.

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#14
i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life Smile
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#15
(22-02-2016, 08:55 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:
(22-02-2016, 01:34 AM)frus Wrote: I would say that the drop in traffic on this forum (very few new posts appearing on the main page) is a leading indicator for the market and broader economy Smile

VB activities, serve as one of the useful indicators? I reckon, it is more of a coincidence. Have other forums been behaving the same?  Big Grin

Perhaps lesser newcomers........
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#16
(22-02-2016, 09:57 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life Smile
Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?
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#17
(23-02-2016, 08:16 AM)Bibi Wrote:
(22-02-2016, 09:57 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life Smile
Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?

no lar...neither retired nor cash rich Big Grin
u ask the vegetable auntie in market what is recession, she probably will be unfazed by it...still sells vegetables everyday because ppl still eat them, still have proper meals and have a home...if you live beyond your means, then only I guess you will feel the impact
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#18
(23-02-2016, 09:28 AM)jjlim84 Wrote:
(23-02-2016, 08:16 AM)Bibi Wrote:
(22-02-2016, 09:57 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life Smile
Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?

no lar...neither retired nor cash rich Big Grin
u ask the vegetable auntie in market what is recession, she probably will be unfazed by it...still sells vegetables everyday because ppl still eat them, still have proper meals and have a home...if you live beyond your means, then only I guess you will feel the impact
Thats what i meant. The vegi auntie business is recession proof. You ask auntie selling fruit juice or western cuisine I bet she will tell u business slow down. If one's business or job is not recession proof, no matter how prudent one is, during a financial CRISIS (means very serious type), one will be affected. We have seen CPF cuts, salary cuts or worse, job losses. If one is in finance sector, even if he is prudent, he will have to cut his spendings further when he gets retrench.
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#19
(23-02-2016, 09:35 AM)Bibi Wrote:
(23-02-2016, 09:28 AM)jjlim84 Wrote:
(23-02-2016, 08:16 AM)Bibi Wrote:
(22-02-2016, 09:57 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: i consider myself a prudent middle class, may it be financial crisis, or economic boom, seriously, i personally don't feel anything impactful in my life Smile
Unless you very cash rich or retired liao, cant be wont be impacted by financial crisis. Or your job is iron rice bowl or your business is recession proof type?

no lar...neither retired nor cash rich Big Grin
u ask the vegetable auntie in market what is recession, she probably will be unfazed by it...still sells vegetables everyday because ppl still eat them, still have proper meals and have a home...if you live beyond your means, then only I guess you will feel the impact
Thats what i meant. The vegi auntie business is recession proof. You ask auntie selling fruit juice or western cuisine I bet she will tell u business slow down. If one's business or job is not recession proof, no matter how prudent one is, during a financial CRISIS (means very serious type), one will be affected. We have seen CPF cuts, salary cuts or worse, job losses. If one is in finance sector, even if he is prudent, he will have to cut his spendings further when he gets retrench.

to me, job loss or retrenched means find another job, it is also a good time to reflect if your job skill is creating value...Salary cut, CPF cuts, as long if spending is sustainable and within means, life goes on

just a view, of course 'impactful to life' is subjective to everyone's different opinions Smile
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#20
My take.

There are some pretty intuitive indicators, like those from the MAS Financial Stability review.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/Regulations-and-Fi...-2015.aspx

Some of those which I find meaningful are:
1. The corporate debt to GDP ratio. Good sense check on whether debt is value adding or excessive to the borrowers in general.
2. Mortgage growth rates and property price index. This gives a shows whether the rate of mortgage rate growth is reasonably aligned with prices. In a way if mortgage grows much faster than price, it is a worrying sign and hint of potential defaults coming up. Then again, if mortgage growth stagnates and prices sinking, its worrying too because any defaults means that the banks cant get back as much. Different views on this ratio.
3. The interest to cover ratio is quite useful for a "feel" of the default risk.
Have fun. Regards.
The thing I am scared most is not nightmares or market crashes..... Its my greed that I fear the most.

When people ask what is my target price, I never have any good answer for it because Philip Fisher said before (in Common Stock Uncommon Profit) that the best time to sell is never. Equity investment is buying into ownership, not betting slips.

The path to greatness and wealth is necessarily dangerous.... because greed is a fearsome fore that threatens your success at every step.
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