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Perhaps some buddies can share their thoughts..
If we take indicators ( for example )like:
GDP
PMI
Tourist arrivals
Hotel occupany
Company financial results
And all the numbers point to a slowdown...
But,how long does it take for an economic slowdown to be visually obvious?
6 months
9 months
1 year
*some visually obvious examples:
- vehicles being repossesed using tow trucks
- increased shop space for rent
- less queues for famous food outlets
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Visually Obvious - COE prices, no of house auctions, less crowd along orchard road
Not so obvious- High vacancy residential rates due to the sending back of foreign workers.
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I am more sure of "audio"........When people around you keeps talking about it non-stop.....
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Perhaps the attendance at new property launches is a good visual indicator too.
Yes if everyone talking about 'hang zheng pai' it probably indicates near the low.
For me if blue chips earnings down and you see STI index quarterly is just down down down is a good visual. Usually there will be a lag of maybe half year before it filters down to property, rental and consumer spending.
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(22-02-2016, 01:34 AM)frus Wrote: I would say that the drop in traffic on this forum (very few new posts appearing on the main page) is a leading indicator for the market and broader economy
VB activities, serve as one of the useful indicators? I reckon, it is more of a coincidence. Have other forums been behaving the same?
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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visual:
hotel rooms are easier to book a few days in advance, even during high seasons
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MBS and RWS kept giving free room before Chinese New year...signs of low occupancy rate maybe.