Chip Eng Seng

[RT Knight]

no doubt, CEL is on its track to move up. Especially the next 2 years. I have been investing CEL since 2011 year end and following the counter since then. Curiousparty's analysis is just right match the booming time of CEL. Now, I am more willing to know how much dividend will CEL give next year. With the high earning and the generous in giving dividend history, could it be 5 cents + special 5 cents next year?
If you guys can read Chinese, you may go below link to understand more.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.ph...3D1&page=1

[CityFarmer]

no doubt, CEL is on its track to move up. Especially the next 2 years. I have been investing CEL since 2011 year end and following the counter since then. Curiousparty's analysis is just right match the booming time of CEL. Now, I am more willing to know how much dividend will CEL give next year. With the high earning and the generous in giving dividend history, could it be 5 cents + special 5 cents next year?
If you guys can read Chinese, you may go below link to understand more.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.ph...3D1&page=1

A warm welcome to our VB forum. Wish you all the best in the VB experience.

Regards
Moderator

[Curiousparty]

CES has been maintaining annual dividend of some 4 cents currently without recurring investment income from San centre and Alex Hotels. When these 2 projects kick in, it is not unreasonable to assume that dividend will be adjusted upwards to say 6 cents, at a sustainable level.

(IMHO)

no doubt, CEL is on its track to move up. Especially the next 2 years. I have been investing CEL since 2011 year end and following the counter since then. Curiousparty's analysis is just right match the booming time of CEL. Now, I am more willing to know how much dividend will CEL give next year. With the high earning and the generous in giving dividend history, could it be 5 cents + special 5 cents next year?
If you guys can read Chinese, you may go below link to understand more.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.ph...3D1&page=1

[tikam tikam]

CES has been maintaining annual dividend of some 4 cents currently without recurring investment income from San centre and Alex Hotels. When these 2 projects kick in, it is not unreasonable to assume that dividend will be adjusted upwards to say 6 cents, at a sustainable level.

(IMHO)

no doubt, CEL is on its track to move up. Especially the next 2 years. I have been investing CEL since 2011 year end and following the counter since then. Curiousparty's analysis is just right match the booming time of CEL. Now, I am more willing to know how much dividend will CEL give next year. With the high earning and the generous in giving dividend history, could it be 5 cents + special 5 cents next year?
If you guys can read Chinese, you may go below link to understand more.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.ph...3D1&page=1

How CES been paying you the 4 cents dividend is by moving units. If the units get stuck it may just as well be minus 4 cents or beyond (think about it). In a magazine article I remember seeing that total debt is 1.3x PB, has this come down to a more reassuring level or when will it happen? If debt is required to be reduced would the dividend be likely to be 4+4 cents (and having more long term debt on its accounting books)?

[RT Knight]

If you rely on these San Centre and ALexandra Hotel, year 2014 you won't get much contribution from them. San Centre is still under renovation when the 1st half of 2014, I saw the building was still having renovation activities when May time. I doubt the occupancy rate will be fill-up to 80% by year end. The contribution will be less or just write-off for 2014. For 2015, we will still need to see the occupancy rate.
For the Alexandra Hotel, it will open in 2015 tentatively. Park Hotel has been assigned to operate the hotel. FOr new hotel, the first thing is to make the hotel to balance out the expenses. I can foresee, the first year could be tough year for CEL. Don't expect too much contribution from this hotel.

The Office building in Kilda road, Melbourne, Australia, should be something to expect.

Anyway, I have to agree that, CEL dividend should have increase next year.

A Yeah for 2015 dividend!

CES has been maintaining annual dividend of some 4 cents currently without recurring investment income from San centre and Alex Hotels. When these 2 projects kick in, it is not unreasonable to assume that dividend will be adjusted upwards to say 6 cents, at a sustainable level.

(IMHO)

no doubt, CEL is on its track to move up. Especially the next 2 years. I have been investing CEL since 2011 year end and following the counter since then. Curiousparty's analysis is just right match the booming time of CEL. Now, I am more willing to know how much dividend will CEL give next year. With the high earning and the generous in giving dividend history, could it be 5 cents + special 5 cents next year?
If you guys can read Chinese, you may go below link to understand more.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.ph...3D1&page=1

[Curiousparty]

Debt should be viewed in relation to size of business undertakings,
e.g. debt to equity ratio or debt to asset ratio as well as Interest coverage.

If one is not comfortable with CES' debt, then one should just dispose of now so that one can sleep well at night.

CES has been maintaining annual dividend of some 4 cents currently without recurring investment income from San centre and Alex Hotels. When these 2 projects kick in, it is not unreasonable to assume that dividend will be adjusted upwards to say 6 cents, at a sustainable level.

(IMHO)

no doubt, CEL is on its track to move up. Especially the next 2 years. I have been investing CEL since 2011 year end and following the counter since then. Curiousparty's analysis is just right match the booming time of CEL. Now, I am more willing to know how much dividend will CEL give next year. With the high earning and the generous in giving dividend history, could it be 5 cents + special 5 cents next year?
If you guys can read Chinese, you may go below link to understand more.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.ph...3D1&page=1

How CES been paying you the 4 cents dividend is by moving units. If the units get stuck it may just as well be minus 4 cents or beyond (think about it). In a magazine article I remember seeing that total debt is 1.3x PB, has this come down to a more reassuring level or when will it happen? If debt is required to be reduced would the dividend be likely to be 4+4 cents (and having more long term debt on its accounting books)?

[RT Knight]

Doing analysis using Financial Statement is right. But, without understanding the figure behind is what the market analysis doing now.

Developer is using leverage to build or start project. This is not new. CEL liability is high. However, their project is moving and selling like hot cake.

When people doubting on their high leverage debt, we have already know that most of the CEL's projects have sold out or almost >90% sold. The risk is small if the project has this kind of high sold out rate.

To CEL, they just need to finish their project, pay the debt, and earn the profit that belongs to them. After that, the equity will increase. The gearing ratio will reduce. WHen the time happen, and all those market's investment banking analysis report mentioning this, the share price has gone up another level.

CEL is the type of developer using the strategy of "ferris wheel". No surprise that, after those projects finishing up, CEL will open more in the future. Expecting the Australia RMIT university project- Carlton Brewery, will be another big earning project for CEL.

CES has been maintaining annual dividend of some 4 cents currently without recurring investment income from San centre and Alex Hotels. When these 2 projects kick in, it is not unreasonable to assume that dividend will be adjusted upwards to say 6 cents, at a sustainable level.

(IMHO)

no doubt, CEL is on its track to move up. Especially the next 2 years. I have been investing CEL since 2011 year end and following the counter since then. Curiousparty's analysis is just right match the booming time of CEL. Now, I am more willing to know how much dividend will CEL give next year. With the high earning and the generous in giving dividend history, could it be 5 cents + special 5 cents next year?
If you guys can read Chinese, you may go below link to understand more.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.ph...3D1&page=1

How CES been paying you the 4 cents dividend is by moving units. If the units get stuck it may just as well be minus 4 cents or beyond (think about it). In a magazine article I remember seeing that total debt is 1.3x PB, has this come down to a more reassuring level or when will it happen? If debt is required to be reduced would the dividend be likely to be 4+4 cents (and having more long term debt on its accounting books)?

[roxhockey]

I assume that under the management deal with Park Hotel, Park is taking 100% of the rooms at a given fixed rate and then the pricing and occupancy risk falls on Park? There may be some transitional arrangements for the period after opening but I would expect that year 1 performance shouldn't be too bad on that basis. That's just my assumption as to how the deal works though, has anything been disclosed on this?

[Curiousparty]

yes, revenue risk is NOT on CES (as the 3rd party hotel management is taking on that risk). The base rate (to be paid to CES) will start off at a lower level (probably $100 per room compared to usual standard hotel room rate of >$200), with adjustment upwards a few years down the road

I had earlier stated the basis in my earlier posting. basically, we are looking at ~$16mil income per annum.

I assume that under the management deal with Park Hotel, Park is taking 100% of the rooms at a given fixed rate and then the pricing and occupancy risk falls on Park? There may be some transitional arrangements for the period after opening but I would expect that year 1 performance shouldn't be too bad on that basis. That's just my assumption as to how the deal works though, has anything been disclosed on this?

[Curiousparty]

Taking reference from Lian Bian, whose full-year net profit attributable to shareholders surged 19.4 per cent to a high of S$87.1 million, boosted by record revenue and higher gross margin.

Its share price has risen by more than 50% in the last few months (since March ~ 50 cents to now ~ 70 cents), based on a 20% jump in EPS.

Not sure how would Mr Market react in the event that CES reports a 150% to 200% jump in EPS for full year 2014 ?